2011 Arbitrary Bowl Predictions: Alumni Face-Off Part 2

The 1910 Missouri Tigers football team were just a small fraction of the alumni considered for this piece.

Just as it sometimes snows in July and whales occasionally try to swim onto a beach, so too, can my readers rely on me to put out a new set of college football predictions every third or fourth bowl season. For this edition, I have once again chosen to forecast the outcome of football games by analyzing topics that have no connection whatsoever to the act of playing football. This year I start by selecting a representative alumni from each school involved then comparing them. This allows me to project the course of the game and the final result through a process that combines thoughtful contemplation and random guesswork. If you want a more detailed explanation -note I didn't promise anything more coherent just more detailed- check out my first set of predictions from this series.

To make this a little more interactive I have added several fake bowl games into my write-ups. I invite my readers to take a guess at which bowl games are fraudulent in the comments section. So try to stay alert for signs of deceit as you read my second round of arbitrary bowl predictions for 2011.


Hawai'i Bowl- 8pm 12/24/2011
Aloha Stadium, Honolulu HI
Nevada-Reno Wolf Pack vs. Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (-5.5)
The Alumni:

Chris Ault

VS.

Brett Favre (Please don't sue me for using a fan's picture that includes the Packers' logo)

When picking the alumni for comparisons, I prefer to avoid football figures, as that seems a little close to non-arbitrary analysis. In this case though the football programs have produced some clear standouts, though for some pretty different reasons. Chris Ault played quarterback for the Wolf Pack back when LBJ was president. Since then he rose to become the head football coach at his alma mater, retired, returned to the head coach position, retired again, and become head coach for a third time. This has earned him a reputation for loyalty to Nevada. His official bio released by the university says, "Simply put, Chris Ault is University of Nevada football". It also makes him the only active Division I football coach who is already in the College Football Hall of Fame. Brett Favre could at one time claim a similarly positive reputation. I even argued once that he was the most beloved figure in American sport. As a former Southern Miss quarterback who became a huge success leading the Green Bay Packers, Favre was a living legend in the minds of most football fans. Now his legacy may well be permanently tarnished by some -oh, let's say "controversial" moves at the end of his career. A fall from grace by their most famous alumnus indicates serious trouble for the Golden Eagles. 

The Prediction: Much like The Gunslinger Favre, the Golden Eagles will come out throwing the ball deep in a wide open attack. The Wolf Back will fall behind early and struggle to catch-up, only to have Southern Miss reclaim the lead every time. In the closing moments of the game watch for Southern Miss to give up a costly turnover -another hallmark of the Brett Favre quarterback experience- allowing the tenacious Wolf Pack to make the final clinching score.
Nevada- 34 Southern Miss- 31

Independence Bowl- 5pm 12/26/2011
Independence Bowl, Shreveport LA
North Carolin Tar Heels vs. Missouri Tigers (-3.5)
The Alumni:

Michael Jordan (photo by S.Lipofsky)

VS.

Sam Walton pictured on the cover of his autobiography

We have about thirty more bowl games to cover, and I doubt any of the other match-ups will include two alumni who both succeeded in their respective fields as much as these two. I can only hope that the actual game turns into the kind of high-powered slug fest alumni like these deserve. Let me try to explain how good these guys are. Picking the greatest graduate of UNC came down to, former President of the United States James K. Polk or a man who's biography on the NBA website starts by proclaiming, "By acclamation, Michael Jordan is the greatest basketball player of all time". Then I remembered this person would be representing the Tar Heels and that anyone who didn't play basketball couldn't make the cut. As good as Jordan was is at basketball, Sam Walton might have been even better as a retailer. Walton founded the retail chain Walmart, which has grown to bring in more revenues than any other company in the world. We can mock the Walmart culture as much as we please. It won't change the fact that Walton's surviving errors have as much wealth as the poorest 30% of Americans combined.

The Prediction: This contest will pit contrasting styles against each other. The Tar Heels will use a wide-open offense designed to make big plays, but prone to stalling. The Tigers will focus on an efficient West Coast-style attack that won't look flashy but will keep gathering up yards. Mizzou should dominate time of possession, getting a big share of the clock just like Sam Walton got a big share of the wealth. This will ultimately leave UNC with too little time to comeback as they desperately try to put together a final touchdown drive.
Missouri- 34 UNC- 26   

Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl- 4:30pm 12/27/2011
Ford Field, Detroit MI
Western Michigan Broncos (-1) vs. Purdue Boilermakers
The Alumni:

Bruce Campbell and his chin

VS.

Neil Armstrong (photo by Buzz Aldrin)

This should be an obvious one-sided bout. You have a hammy actor against the first person to set foot on something other than planet Earth. One of these guys is known for starring in B-movies and cult TV shows, and the other once had 93% of the country watching him. Armstrong's name is enshrined on the Moon and Campbell can't even get a star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame. And yet . . .  Please, just bear with me here. I know Neil Armstrong has been a hero to millions of people, but Bruce Campbell was my hero when I was young. I loved watching The Adventures of Brisco County, Jr. when I was a kid. If you've ever seen Bubba Ho-Tep then you should realize just how fun it can be to watch Bruce Campbell take over a movie. And that chin. My God, that chin. If there's anything I've learned from every romantic comedy ever, it's that sometimes you have to go with your heart, and my hear belongs to Bruce Campbell.

The Prediction: My power of foresight see Purdue having this game completely in hand. There will be every reason to believe that they will walk to victory. Until disaster strikes that is. I can't be sure if it will be a game-breaking turnover, a costly error, or a devastating injury. I just know one moment in the game will allow WMU to seize the momentum and snatch a victory by the narrowest of margins.
Western Michigan- 22 Purdue- 21

Belk Bowl- 8pm 12/27/2011
Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte NC
Louisville Cardinals vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack (-2.5)
The Alumni:

Sue Grafton

VS.

John Tesh

The face-off between these two school will take place in the arena of Arts & Letters. When a best-selling author squares-off against a TV personality turned adult contemporary rock star, you can trust that mediocre football is on the way. Both Grafton and Tesh have been highly popular in their respective fields despite the fact that you may well have never read any of her books or listened to any of his albums. They are like the CBS prime time line-up in that respect. While I do have great admiration for Sue Grafton's success selling mystery novels about a female detective in alphabetical order, I have to tilt in favor of John Tesh. I do so solely on the basis of the fact that he composed a totally kicking theme song for NBC's coverage of the NBA.  

The Prediction: In a pretty ugly game, both teams will make you openly question why either of them deserve a chance at post-season play. The signs point to lots of penalties, lots of three-and-outs, and at least a few moments where the head referee starts to announce a ruling, then pauses, turns off his microphone, consults with the other officials, and comes back to announce the exact opposite. It will all hinge on a big play by NC State that accounts for the margin of victory. Though something makes me think the only exciting play will happen early leaving us to sit through three quarter of mostly dull football.
NC State- 17 Louisville- 10 

SunTrust Bank Bowl- 1pm 12/28/2011
Bright House Networks Stadium, Orlando FL
University of Miami Hurricanes (-7.5) vs. Eastern Michigan Eagles
The Alumni:

Drew Rosenhaus

VS.

J. H. Kellogg

Not everyone who sets out to serve others earns a respectable legacy, as proven by the lives of these two alumni. Because "Da U" is best known for its football program and all of the high profile players it has produced, I felt compelled to select an athlete. However with so many Hurricanes who became football greats and outspoken personalities, it was hard to pick just one. So I went with someone who has made a (very, very good) living as the voice for the modern sports star, super-agent Drew Rosenhaus. Like the players he represents, he has a reputation as a winner. Also like modern athletes, the public considers him an over-entitled diva who acts like a child when he can't get his way. No matter how much money he earns his clients, he will always be thought of as a joke. In a similar way, John Harvey Kellogg will probably be remembered as a quack doctor despite his sincere efforts to promote healthy living. Kellogg attended Michigan State Normal School for a time in 1872 before he went on to earn a medical degree and the Normal School became Eastern Michigan University. He became a popular advocate of the "wellness" movement of the 19th century, and tried to spread practices he thought would improve the quality of life for many people. Sadly for him, his legacy as a medical practitioner has been defined by his advocacy of enemas and his efforts to prevent masturbation. On the bright side the memory of his eccentricities pales in comparison to his much more popular legacy, the invention of corn flakes. Yes, he is that Kellogg. 

The Prediction: My prognostication holds that the Hurricanes will have the superior game plan, but be constantly foiled by penalties and unforced errors. The Eagles will look out of sorts for most of the play, trying to rely on trick plays and gimmicks that fail more often than they succeed. A few plays will break for EMU though to give them a win.
Eastern Michigan- 17 U. Miami- 16 

Military Bowl- 4:30pm 12/28/2011
RFK Stadium, Washington, DC
Toledo Rockets (-1) vs. Air Force Falcons
The Alumni:

The most famous invention of Fred Baur

VS.

Gregg Popovich

I'll start by acknowledging that lots of accomplished people graduated from the Air Force Academy, including astronauts, war heroes, and business executives. For me though, the most interesting alumnus was Gregg Popovich a four-time NBA champion coach with the third-best career winning percentage of any NBA coach. The most interesting graduate of Toledo was Fredric J. Baur, an organic chemist and food storage technician (I know I keep picking alumni from "sexy" professions, I'll try to be more diverse in the future). Growing up in Ohio, I remember representatives of Toledo's College of Engineering visiting my science classes and trying to convince us to study science there. That experience left me with a lifelong association between the University of Toledo and the kind of scientific achievement Fred Baur represents. (It also taught me the dark secret of the Mystery Flavor Dum Dum Pop.) Baur invented the Pringles can allowing millions of people to finally enjoy chips out of a tube. He was so proud of this that he asked for his remains to be buried in a Pringles container. He designed a popular food storage packaging system that could also serve as an urn. Now that is cool!

The Prediction: In a game defined by a defensively minded basketball coach and a scientist who protected food, I see a lot of defense. Look for Toledo to seal off their goal line like an airtight canister, and do just enough on offense to win.

Toledo- 13 Air Force- 9

Holiday Bowl- 8pm 12/28/2011
Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego CA
California Golden Bears vs.Texas Longhorns (-3)
The Alumni:

Chief Justice of the United States Earl Warren

VS.

Supreme newsman Walter Cronkite (photo from NASA)

They should rename this the Respectability Bowl on the basis of these two alumni. Earl Warren was elected governor of California three times before becoming one of the most influential Chief Justices in the history of the U.S. Supreme Court. Walter Cronkite was the most trusted TV news anchor in America for decades. You could orbit a planet around the gravitas these men radiated. I think I have to give the edge to Texas, because so many people took issue with the Warren Commission report on the Kennedy assassination.

The Prediction: We should see a real barnburner here. I forecast lots of back-and-forth scoring as two sharp offenses keep putting together successful drives. The tide will come when the Cal defense starts to grow wearing and Texas takes control in the 4th quarter. The Longhorns will secure the lead and burn out the clock.
Texas- 42 California 38 

Champs Sports Bowl- 5:30pm 12/29/2011
Citrus Bowl, Orlando FL
Florida State Seminoles (-2.5) vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
The Alumni:

Lee Corso

VS.

Regis Philbin

Selecting the representative alumni for this comparison came down to the fact that I have a soft spot in my heart for irascible old men. Lee Corso stood out among other FSU grads for a couple of reasons (and I seriously considered picking former attending Hunter S. Thompson, but he dropped out and Corso got his degree). First Corso has a great back-story tied to his FSU days. He played for the football team and at one time held the school record for career interception. Plus he was Burt Reynolds roomate! Also, I like that as a TV personality Corso brings the same kind of flashy grandiose style to discussing college football that the Seminoles seem to bring to playing it. While Regis Philbin may not have been the most accomplished person to attend the University of Notre Dame, I believe he has become the visible. During his run on Live! he made a regular point of discussing the fortunes of his beloved Irish. At one point I suggested he could be the best recruiter for Notre Dame with his celebrity status and undying passion. So I have to figure his team will do well in this game.

The Prediction: These two teams will play very similar styles of football in this game. They will rely on the pass, try to bend but not break on defense, and make occasional costly errors. I predict Notre Dame will have a little more success and ride smoothly to triumph.
Notre Dame- 27 Florida State- 20 

Alamo Bowl- 9pm 12/29/2011
Alamodome, San Antonio TX
Washington Huskies vs Baylor Bears (-10)
The Alumni:

Famed Artist Dale Chihuly

VS.

Willie Nelson

A face-off between two very creative alumni indicates some exciting things in the bowl itself. Washington lays claim to the most successful glass blowing artist every Dale Chihuly. Even if you don't recognize the man or the name (though he certainly does look a lot like a heavy Rooster Cogburn) you have probably seen his colorful curved glass sculptures decorating some room you've been in. Willie Nelson is of course a legend of country music. He attended Baylor only to drop out to deal with his personal life, but I have dubbed him an alumnus because he has been known to wear Baylor gear while performing. He has had an incredible career all his own, but he also wrote songs for others. The biggest jukebox hit of all time, Patsy Cline's "Crazy", was actually penned by Nelson. So he brings more than enough firepower to take out Chihuly.

The Prediction: You can expect lots and lots of points in this game. I expect creative game plans from both teams and exciting play from start to finish. The whole way through though it will be clear that Baylor has it well in hand.
Baylor- 56 Washington- 44 

Please use these insights into the future responsibly, and enjoy your holiday season. Oh, and be sure to return again for Part 3.