The Buckerine Files: Day 4- Caught Looking Ahead

According to many college football analysts the most difficult part of coaching a college football team is keeping a bunch of passionate, emotional young men stable and focused week in and week out. In many ways the losses Ohio State and Michigan suffered the week before The Game are a reflection of that. Each team knew that win or lose on November 10th, they could secure a Big Ten Championship and at least a ticket to the Rose Bowl by winning on November 17th. No matter what motivational ploys you use, its hard to keep people who think they've already won from finding a way to lose. And find a way to lose they did.

Now I have already rehashed the previous games enough, so don't worry I won't be looking back today. Instead I will talk about the cardinal sin of sports, looking ahead. Former coaches, athletes, and sports experts of all stripes will describe for you the dangers of looking ahead in such painful detail that you would think no opponent's strategy has ever done as much damage to a team as thinking about next week. This may be part of the reason why Buckeye and Wolverine fans alike are so totally focused on winning just The Game and not letting thoughts of future games distract them from their hated rivals. So any wise football fan will avoid thoughts of what might come after The Game. There is no after The Game. The Game is its own miniature football apocalypse. Don't even think about the conse. . .

Y'know what screw it. At the risk of being hoisted by my own Picard, I will use this post to look ahead a little. I realize for fans there is generally bad karma involved with thinking past the next opponent, but I think I can counteract that. First I am a graduate of both schools so the forces of nature probably wouldn't know which side to punish for my hubris (we Buckerines are a rare breed, so they won't have much experience dealing with us). Second I will look at the possible ramifications for both teams for both a win and a loss. Finally I will freely acknowledge that my pathetic ramblings and missives don't count a serious analysis and can therefore need not be rebuked merely ignored.

That having been said let's look at store for . . .

Michigan if they win- Since my coin flip came up Michigan this year, this is the situation I have been hoping for ever since their embarrassing two game losing streak to open the season. With a victory Michigan goes from joke to conference champion in just ten weeks. Suddenly they have the chance to earn respect from the rest of the nation after months of doubting and dismissal.

This would also give Lloyd Carr the perfect platform on which to announce his retirement. Beating Ohio State one more time would give him a winning record against the Buckeyes. A final bowl victory would end his terrific, if recently troubled, career on a high note.

One unfortunate scenario involves the traditional Rose Bowl opponent, the Pac-10 champion, makes it into the BCS championship game (very likely since as I write this Oregon currently leads the Pac-10 and is No. 2 in the BCS standings) and Michigan can only triumph over an at-large opponent of less prominence, therefore reducing the redemption factor Michigan would earn beating both OSU and their bowl opponent to end the year for the first time since 2000. Of course that might lead some to speculate that Michigan could easily suffer another bowl game humiliation resulting in Coach Carr's exit looking more like a retreat than a ride into the sunset. Again I am premising this on the idea that the Wolverines are focused and driven enough to put it all together once. They would then have a month and a half to perfect their games for that last victory. Another bowl loss is much more likely for the Maize and Blue in the next scenario.

Michigan if they lose- First of all it makes it a little bit more uncertain if Carr retires. After failing to beat Ohio State for the fourth straight time, one would imagine some small amount of ego or personal pride inside that curmudgeonly old soul of his would demand to get a last chance to end his career with a win against the Bucks. Though as Brian of MGoBlog points out all indications are that his retirement is imminent. That means the team will be left trying to get one last victory for the sake of vanity in a lower tier bowl.

It is even pretty dicey as to what bowl they might land in. Bowl projections are a tricky game and opinions can easily differ about what exact bowl a particular team will find itself in. Still Michigan having already suffered through a tough season might not be seen as a hot commodity with two straight losses to end the year. Though they travel well, a bowl like the Capitol One Bowl might prefer Illinois to draw in their fired up fan base and match them up with Florida Ron Zook's former team (very former for some fans). This could mean the Wolverines slide down the bowl ladder ending up anywhere from the Outback Bowl, to the Alamo Bowl, to the Champs Sports Bowl. If Michigan begins and ends its regular season with symmetrically heart breaking losing streaks, it may be hard to get the team fired up for one last hurrah. After all if the desire not to go 0'fer against OSU doesn't fire up seniors Henne (QB), Hart (RB) and Long (OL), then the thought of going 0'fer in bowls may not do much either.

Ohio State if they lose- While Ohio State would have certainly fallen a long way from their projected status as BCS title contenders just last week if they lose to Michigan, not many Ohio State fans could really express that much honest disappointment in a 10-2 regular season. Plus, given Ohio State's high position in the current BCS rankings, they could still remain eligible for a BCS bowl berth. The same problem about taking a team on a losing skid does apply to OSU, however it isn't as bad when you consider that two game streak represents all their losses of the season. The Buckeye faithful have shown time and again that they will support their team wherever they go. If other traditionally attractive teams like Texas, USC, Notre Dame, Tennessee, and Florida aren't eligible to go, then we may have a great many BCS bowls looking for a team with a fan base the size of the Buckeyes. (Just so you know, Michigan can't make it to the BCS bowls without beating OSU because otherwise the wouldn't have the requisite nine wins.) So right now it seems like the absolute worst case scenario for the Buckeyes is the Capital One Bowl and an early New Years Day game.

Ohio State if they win- Here a Rose Bowl berth is actually the lower option available. With only one loss Ohio State is very practically still in contention to make the BCS championship game. It would only make sense since history shows us that at least one of the teams ranked 1 or 2 in the initial BCS rankings make the title game. Ohio State started as the top team and remains in contention, while original number two South Florida has completely fallen off the radar. Before you assert that the history books will be rewritten with this season consider the following: all that stands between Ohio State and playing for a championship for the second straight year are three games and the Buckeyes only need to win one of them. Remember first of all that sitting above OSU right now in the BCS standings are three teams from the Big XII that still have to play each other in a round robin of death. With at least one loss coming up for two of those three teams, that means Ohio State, currently No. 7, will be at least in the top five. It gets interesting when you consider that OSU actually has the advantage over two teams ranked above it in the computer polls. So if Oklahoma struggles down the stretch or the voters can't choose between Ohio State and West Virginia OSU will move up by virtue of Hal 9000 and all his cold, heartless machine buddies. That means OSU is really only looking for one of the current top two teams (LSU and Oregon) to be upset in this the season of upsets and for one other lousy game to strike Oklahoma, West Virginia, Kansas, or Missouri. If two of those teams go down, and all of them still have multiple challenging games ahead, then Ohio State could easily slip right back into the championship game much to the outrage of Big Ten bashers everywhere. Failing that a chance for Jim Tressel to win his first Rose Bowl isn't a bad consolation prize.

So that's what I imagine each team will have to deal with following The Game. If the crazy forces of college football fate and chance somehow manage to ruin the season for both these teams, then just blame the Buckerine I couldn't stay focused on next week alone.

Buckerine Files: Day 3- The same way Batman is scarier than Clark Kent

For observers from outside the Big Ten, The Game might as well be between children.

The fact that Michigan and Ohio State were both such dominant football programs for so long led to their conference, the Big Ten, being referred to jokingly as the Little Eight and Big Two. These were the days when college football was ruled by a select handful of team who were perennially elite. When the national championship was almost certain to wind up in the hands of one of a dozen teams that stood on a level above the rest. While once such dominance was simply assumed to be the sign of a strong program, now it has become a indictment of that the conference true strength and depth, of the team's scheduling chutzpah, and of the team's basic credentials to play for a national championship. The fact that Ohio State and Michigan seem to be the only teams to consistently excel in the Big Ten has come to reflect poorly on the conference and even worse on the significance of The Game itself.

Why is the Big Ten consistently ranked toward the bottom of the conferences that established the Bowl Championship system? How can it be that sports talk radio personalities are openly stating that no one cares who wins the Big Ten? What has happened that the Big Ten's start up cable channel, the Big Ten Network, can't get programmed by a major cable company? Is the Big Ten really a terrible football conference -therefore making Ohio State and Michigan paper tigers? Or has it simply fallen victim to a rather pernicious misconception in the last few months?

Can anybody hear me? Is anybody there?

Let's start with the major cause for all the recent Big Ten bashing. In the two highest profile games played by Big Ten teams against teams from other conferences, the Big Ten's representatives -Ohio State and Michigan who usually define the strength of the conference in the average fan's mind- both lost big. One, Michigan, was embarrassed in the Grand Daddy of Them All, the Rose Bowl in front of millions on New Year's Day. Then a week later, in front of even more millions of people, the Big Ten Champion, Ohio State, was humiliated in the National Championship game. By all reasonable accounts, that was when the backlash started. Never mind that Michigan had trounced a highly ranked Notre Dame earlier in the season, and Ohio State easily dispatched of defending national champion Texas which would go on to win 10 games. Forget the fact that just the year before the Big Ten had two teams in the BCS bowls and went 2-0. In college football it's all about what have you done for me lately, and what the Big Ten had done lately was suck.


Then this season began and it all went downhill from there. Michigan found itself on the wrong end of the biggest upset in college football history. The Big Ten teams gave up victories to Duke, Iowa State, and Florida Atlantic. The one out of conference game several Big Ten team's were relying on to give their schedules some credibility, Notre Dame, turned out to be a total joke this season. Then once conference games began, remaining contenders who were still looking respectable nationally, like Wisconsin and Penn State lost to teams who weren't even ranked in the national polls. It reached a point where Colin Cowherd (the only national sports radio host to pimp college football and destroy innocent blogs) called out the Big Ten for having no legitimate teams outside of Ohio State and, recovering nicely by this point, Michigan. Clearly the Big Two couldn't carry this league by themselves and be seen as legitimate; they would need some help from the Little Eight (or actually Nine, curse you Penn State for making the conference's name an embarrassing misnomer!). In fact last weekend's losses by Ohio State and Michigan probably did more to boost the Big Ten's legitimacy than if we were left with another year where the only thing keeping Ohio State out of the title game was Michigan.

Now it can easily be argued that all this stuff is just bunk. That ranking the conferences is really just splitting hairs. Determining what conferences are best and what are worst are all just a matter of perception. That would be nice if it weren't also true that in college football perception is reality. This is a sport that determines its champion principally on the basis of opinion polls. The plain facts are that the Big Ten has presented such an appearance of suck, that it now has a hard time convincing others they don't actually suck.

Being the complete geek I am, I thought of an apt analogy from the world of comic books. See there are conferences out there like the SEC who are like Batman. In their true nature they aren't super-human just very impressive specimens, just like Bruce Wayne. Yet when they endlessly talk about how tough their conference is at every opportunity and secure exclusive deals with CBS so Gary Danielson can gush over the superiority of SEC football on national TV, they convince everybody they are a lot scarier than the actually are, just like Batman. In fact there's one famous Batman comic where a bunch of crooks are swapping Batman stories and they keep talking about him like he has fangs and claws and magic powers. We as readers know that isn't true, but we understand that Batman is such a badass that the crooks probably really do believe he's some kind of demon or something.

On the flipside the Big Ten is like Clark Kent. Note, I am not talking about Superman here, but rather his mild mannered, and unimpressive alter ego, Clark Kent. Lurking beneath the surface there is some true power, but nobody will ever notice because the Big Ten keeps projecting an image that screams pathetic. Clark Kent has his rumpled suit and coke-bottle glasses. The Big Ten has their embarrassing commissioner and refusal to schedule quality opponents. In a terrific Superman story, Superman does reveal his identity to Lois Lane, but since Lois has spent so much time looking down on Clark Kent, she just can't accept that he was really Superman. In the same way, lots of commentators refused to treat Ohio State like a legitimate number one team, because they had spent so much time reflecting on that 41-14 disaster in the desert. Perception was defining reality for Lois and for the Buckeyes

The Big Ten is known as a throwback conference still playing and acting like its the 1970's. In truth, Big Ten teams like Purdue and Northwestern were pushing spread offense on the major level before Urban Meyer made it sexy and the ESPN talking heads went "Woot! Spread Offense pwns n00bs!". They are pushing the edges with the Big Ten Network. The reason cable companies are fighting so fiercely against it is because they can't afford for other conferences to try it. Yet instead of proving that the audience for their programming exists, the Big Ten insists on getting in fights about Iowa's women's volleyball.

If the Big Ten wants respect, this has to stop. Teams have to be pushed to schedule someone other than Notre Dame. They have to get savvy about modern media relations. They need to hire a real professional as commissioner. They need to get their channel in people's homes. The Big Ten has power within it just refuses to act like it. The reason why the SEC is getting more respect than the Big Ten this season definitely has something to do with the last championship game, but it has as much to do with the larger image each conference projects. Because Superman may be way stronger than Bruce Wayne, but everybody knows Batman is scarier than Clark Kent.

The Buckerine Files: Day 2- No, it won't be the game of the week

Well, I gave a rah-rah speech about the Ohio State-Michigan game in my last post. Now I have to accept that the 2007 game may not measure up to lasts year's all-timer. The set up for 2006 was like something out of Hollywood. A heated rivalry, the top two teams by consensus, weeks of build-up for a high scoring spectacular. Even the usually cynical Sunday Morning Quarterback had to agree that it had all the makings of a true Game of the Century. Then things went into a bit of a decline. No matter what happened in the bowl games last year, The Game of 2006 stands out as one of the most anticipated and exciting games I ever saw. The thrill of watching both schools go through a dream season and cap it off with a terrific game was almost enough to last me through December. So I can say with all confidence that no matter what happened after The Game it was still the highlight of the season for me.

This season fans of Michigan and Ohio State are faced with a similar problem. It is possible to consider The Game of 2007 diminished by the fact that both the Buckeyes and the Wolverines lost in the preceding week for the first time since 1959. This Saturday will mark the first time in over 20 years these two teams have played for the Big Ten championship with no implications for the national championship. Many who have a low opinion of the Big Ten conference already are dismissing it out of hand. With Ohio State no longer playing for a guaranteed slot in the BCS National Championship game, it seems like The Game has become just a game. Less of a "game of the week" and more of a "game of the weak". Well, I assure you that this game still has plenty of relevance. It's no mistake that the infamous ESPN College GameDay crew will be broadcasting live from Ann Arbor next Saturday. Just as what came after The Game last year did not tarnish what it meant, so too, this year, does The Game still stand out as one of the most important games of the season.

Let's start with the redemption factor for both teams. Each of these teams and their fans should feel a little embarrassed by what happened last week. Michigan let Wisconsin utterly control the game. Their offensive star essentially sat out the game even though earlier reports were that they would both play. The defensive did their best impersonation of fluffy clouds barely tickling the Wisconsin offense as they marched toward the end zone over and over again. This is all in front of a fanbase known for using cheese wedges as hats in a stadium so bereft of diversity they have to doctor photos of home games for their promotional materials. Just minutes after that game ended Ohio State put on their own gridiron calamity. It's not even watching Illinois backfield slowly and steadily push the ball upfield against the Buckeye's over-aggressive and egregiously held defense that's upseting. Even if you consider the game very poorly officiated, that still shouldn't get you down. After all it's not new. No what really irks the Buckeye fans is that Jim Tressel, the new patron saint of Ohio football, winner of multiple Coach of the Year trophies, who lead his teams to national title games 8 times was beaten by this man.


Ron Zook, the college football equivalent of Reese Bobby. A coach so underwhelming fans from his last job at Florida still refuse to use his name. Coach Tressel practically handed the game over to the Zooker when he called an ill advised time out that gave Illinois an opportunity to convert on 4th and inches rather than punt. That time out will definitely earn a place in Time-Life's Bad Calls by Great Coaches: The Complete Collection. After their respective games each team finds themselves in a hole they are desperate to dig themselves out of.

It extends beyond this season though as Ohio State and Michigan both want to prove their bowl losses at last season weren't representative. The fan bases of both teams have had to put up with a lot of flack (some of it deserved) from opponents fans and media pundits since their embarrassments in January. They would love nothing more than to end this season with a solid victory over a respected opponent in the Rose Bowl. For many this game is going to help them put away some demons that having been hounding them the entire calendar year.

You can easily put this game in a larger framework and still see it as important. For Michigan they have to put a stop to Ohio State's three year long win streak. For seniors like Ohio State's Kirk Barton (openly upset about the Illinois loss) it is the opportunity to end their last regular season with a win. For the Michigan trio of Mike Hart, Chad Henne, and Jake Long it has been noted many times in many places that beating Ohio State was why they came back for a fourth year. For Lloyd Carr he is 6-6 against Ohio State in his career at Michigan and if he can retire with a winning record in the rivalry if he wins today. For fans from both schools it is about feeding a life time passion that at times looks like an obsession that largely hinges on this one game each year. For the fans who remember the Ten Year War (like my father) or even stuck it out in the Snow Bowl (like my grandfather) it is about history and a win-loss ledger that has marked each year of there life.

In the end fans from both sides should be grateful that we'll be visited by Fowler, Corso and Herbstreit it is a nice gesture for ESPN to give The Game that coveted "game of the week". Match-ups like Boston College at Clemson, Kentucky at Georgia, and even West Virginia at Cincinnati may be sexier or have more national importance. Still this is neither a "game of the weak" nor a "game of the week". For fans it will always be the game of the year. For players it may be the game of their career. For the Michigan seniors who have never won against OSU it may be the game of their lives. Above all it is and always will be The Game.

The Buckerine Files: Day 1- It's Not Beginning; It's Never Ending

Since we are now within the seven days of the 2007 edition of The Game the annual football match-up between the Michigan Wolverines and the Ohio State Buckeyes. Since it has stood the test of history and become a rivalry respected by all, I thought I should finally do something to honor this amazing tradition that served as my introduction to sports fandom and remains the single most important sporting event of the year for me and my family. So in an absolutely unprecedented event for this blog I will be posting once a day to share my thoughts and observations as this momentous occasion approaches. (If a daily countdown isn't enough you can countdown the hours or even the seconds.)

As some of my readers may already know, I hold a rare perspective of this game, as I am both a proud alumnus of The Ohio State University, and a graduate of the University of Michigan. For some people in Ohio that makes me a traitor -as they call any Ohio born player who goes on to play for That School Up North. In my case though, I am only upholding two threads of family tradition.

My grandfather (mother's father) was a student at Michigan back in the days of Tom Harmon and Forest Evashevski. He regaled all of his grandchildren with stories of the Wolverines with such zest and passion that I think we all were a little bedazzled into following the maize and blue. To understand how he managed to subtly steer a bunch of kids growing up in Ohio to wear Michigan gear, you have to understand that my grandpa has always been a sly and charming fellow. Imagine Regis Philbin only replace New York with Detroit in his biography and Notre Dame with Michigan for his alma mater.

My father on the other hand was a native Ohioan, and after his family moved to Columbus, it was just a matter of time before he became ensnared by the Buckeyes. He attended Ohio State in the days of the infamous Ten Year War between legendary coaches Woody Hayes (Ohio State) and Bo Schembechler (Michigan). My dad was a life long football enthusiast -he still coaches little league- and the character and attitude Woody Hayes professed in his football program clearly left an impression. For him "three yards and a cloud of dust" was real football, and the NFL was the home of boring football and showboating prima donnas. The football season took place on Saturdays in the fall in our house, and the biggest game of the year was always Ohio State vs. Michigan.

Now the closest I ever came to playing football was being in my high school marching band. Growing up I was much more of a nerd than a sports fan, but even through the comic book induced haze in my brain, I still understood how important The Game was. Since Ohio State and Michigan had always been part of my life I was drawn to them when the time came for me to start looking at colleges. They both jumped to the top of my list when I considering where I would earn by Bachelor's. Ohio State won out because they offered me better scholarships and I went on to meet my wife there and enjoy every minute of my college experience (well, not every minute, but that all gets washed out with the benefit of nostalgia). Then when I had the chance to go to Michigan for my master's I knew I had to take it, even if that would make me a traitor in the eyes of some. While Ohio State had been my home for four years, I squeezed in almost as much living in my time in Ann Arbor. Michigan was where I proposed to my girlfriend from OSU and where I started my career in education. So now I am equally a member of both communities.

My grandfather gave me the nickname "The Buckerine" for my unlikely status. I decide who to root for each year by flipping a coin before the season starts (this year it came up Michigan and Appalachian State promptly ripped my heart out). I love both schools, both teams, and everything this rivalry has meant to me personally. There is so much history to talk about when it comes to football at both Ohio State and Michigan, but I'm not the one to do it. This week will be about how I personally have been affected by The Game, and my observations for the upcoming renewal of college football's greatest grudge match.

So get ready for seven days of college football coverage from the Cap'n. Some observers who don't understand this rivalry will call this the beginning of Michigan-Ohio State weak. It is not. This is Week 52 of another Beat Michigan year for the Buckeye faithful. This is the end of an arduous 12 month quest for revenge for Michigan after being denied a chance at the national championship last year, especially for the seniors on the team who have never beaten Ohio State. This blog may be focusing on these next seven days, but it's just another week in the Greatest Rivalry in All of Sports.

College Football Mid-Season Update: "What was I thinking?" Edition

At the beginning of this season I conducted a little experiment to determine whether using an objective analytical process to select your wagers had any more value than my arbitrary prediction methods. I also wrote an extensive blog post about all of this which probably robbed potentially productive waking hours from anyone who tried to read it. I just thought since the college football season is about two-thirds complete, this would be a good time to check in on how my predictions were fairing. The main gist of this exercise was to pick 20 teams that I thought had favorable odds of winning the next BCS National Championship (taking a big of a shotgun approach I know, but there were 100 other teams I didn't select). The were:

1) Wisconsin Badgers
2) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
3) Rutgers Scarlet Knights
4) Texas A&M Aggies
5) UCLA Bruins
6) Michigan Wolverines
7) Virginia Tech Hokies
8) Louisville Cardinals
9) Oregon State Beavers
10) Arkansas Razorbacks
11) West Virginia Mountaineers
12) Auburn Tigers
13) Nebraska Corn Huskers
14) Iowa Hawkeyes
15) Oregon Ducks
16) Boston College Eagles
17) Georgia Bulldogs
18) California Golden Bears
19) Penn State Nittany Lions
20) Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Now with any sample that covers so many teams i was bound to get a few clunkers in there somewhere. Plus given that this college football season is already going to go down as one of the wackiest and craziest in terms of unpredictability and upsets, I think I can be forgiven if my predictions turned out a little poorly. After all its not like many people had many accurate forecasts going into this season. With all that said, my objective predictions aren't going well. by which I mean, they stink. The team I had the most confidence in still needs to win out and a lot of luck just to win its conference championship. No team in my top ten has fewer than two losses. Like I said, to good.

Comparing the objective predictions performance to some theoretical ideal doesn't do much good though. How well are they doing compared to the season as it has actually transpired. Afterall with so many twists and turns, it's perfectly possible I stumbled onto a diamond in the rough somehow. There are eight or nine teams with any legitimate hope left to win the BCS title this season. They are Ohio State, Boston College, Arizona State, Kansas, LSU, Oklahoma, Oregon, West Virginia, and possibly Missouri. I ruled out three of them (Ohio State, LSU, and Oklahoma) because they already won a BCS championship (but they are among my arbitrarily selected picks, Sheet 3). I will stick with that judgment for now. Though when discussing my experiment with my brother he wisely pointed out that if teams who had won in the past had good odds of making it to the championship game, then there must be good odds that some year two of them will make it and my theory will be blown out of the water. I do have three of the contenders in my list of twenty (BC, WVU, and Oregon), though admittedly they are all ranked low according to my "analytic" standards. Missouri has an outside shot if it wins out, though other teams will probably get the nod over it. For similar reasons I am not including Hawai'i which may well go undefeated but which will definitely not get a chance to play for the title. The last two teams are in neither of my pools of picks and since Vegas did offer odds on them not even my cover-all pick on "the field" would save my bacon. This season is promising to have a dynamite finish. So it only makes sense that I would have a 25% chance of both sets of picks being completely blown up by a dark horse champion.

None the less, I am never discouraged. I have already begun a new "objective" analysis tool, and may be able to show that off come season's end. I also will try to come up with another arbitrary bowl prediction method to entertain you in December.There is a lot more study and review to happen after the season wraps up. Until that time enjoy the college football games we have left.