NBA Pay Scale 2006- Top Tier

Top Tier

This section examines those basketball players with definite proven worth. They are the stars with strong market value and/or the balers who make their teams great. If you ever hear about one of these players becoming a free agent or getting offered up as trade bait, you hold out hope that your team will land them. Setting themselves apart from the Lowlights and Middlings, these are the players that earn major dollars because they make major dollars, doing the two things NBA teams value above all else: winning games and selling tickets. If you want the rules are back here.

50. Zydrunis Ilgauskas:

What he earned- $11.23 Million

What he was paid- $8.7 Million

What he’s worth- $9 Million

The oft-mocked, easily dismissed, hard to understand (both on the court and in interviews) Zydrunis Ilgauskas finds himself among the best players in the league on this list. It’s a little startling to realize that Cleveland has another star on the roster besides LeBron, but when you look at the facts it’s almost impossible to deny. Ilgauskas has attained his substantial value not by posting up huge numbers (anyone familiar with his stat lines knows he’s not a traditionally dominant center). Yet he remains one of the few consistent quality centers in the association. With the pool of competent big men still at depressingly shallow levels, those teams with strong centers need to respect the value they have in the low post. Even without the nationwide appeal of LeBron, Big Z still has a very loyal and dedicated fan base in Cleveland he’s cultivated over his many years with the Cavaliers. Having a suitably respected second star makes a significant difference for NBA front offices. Imagine this situation. Some fan in Ohio walks into the sports shop at his local mall with a roll of money in his pocket that he plans to burn on an official NBA jersey from his favorite team. When he sees that the number 23 is all sold out, the fact that the Cavs have Zydrunis on their team is the difference between that fan racking up another jersey purchase or walking out the store looking for another way to spend his money. Imagine that situation repeated several thousand times and you understand how Ilgauskas earns a modest boost in pay.

49. Channing Frye:

What he earned- $5.95 Million

What he was paid- $2.2 Million

What he’s worth- $9.01 Million

I put the Pay Scale rating of Frye at just over $9 million as a rough estimate. It can be very hard to predict future success off of a player’s performance in her rookie season. In Frye’s case the whole situation is complicated by Larry Brown, who refused to give his star rookie consistent minutes. I don’t know if anyone has a clear idea of where Frye’s potential could take him, but than I remembered he plays for the New York Knicks. There is no limit to the amount of money the Knicks should pour into Frye’s bank account. Whatever amount of money it takes to keep their good young player in NY and happy the Knicks should gladly pay him, or the team has no future at all.

48. Speedy Claxton:

What he earned- $7.46 Million

What he was paid- $3.6 Million

What he’s worth- $9.02 Million

Here’s a player who has all the makings of a hot property and no one believes me when I tell them this. A few factors, I offer for your consideration. 1) He started his NBA grooming on two NBA teams that went to the playoffs, including one that won the NBA championship. 2) He’s been a journeyman for pretty much his whole career which helps him develop the ability to play in any system and also clouds his value since no particular fans don’t get used to hearing about his accomplishments on any given team. 3) He is about to enter his prime as a player. 4) He played a crucial role in the Hornet’s miracle return last season. If the Hawks, his latest team, hold onto him he could become a leader to take them the playoffs. I think he’s the next Sam Cassell waiting to happen.

47. Jason Richardson:

What he earned- $13.9 Million

What he was paid- $8.9 Million

What he’s worth- $9.05 Million

Easily the best player on Golden States roster, Richardson will pay off big if they take care of him. I think who could become a top 25 player and consistent all-star with the right combination of development and luck. This is all based on my assumption that Don Nelson won’t try to force his system on the Warriors and try to make Richardson into something he’s not.

46. Andre Iguodala:

What he earned- $10.83 Million

What he was paid- $2.1 Million

What he’s worth- $9.1 Million

First, he has to shake this whole “The Other AI” nickname. No player should have to be tagged with someone else’s nickname especially a player that is still in the league, especially someone on his team, especially someone who has made as much of an impact on the franchise and the city as Allen Iverson. His real name is unique and interesting so he wouldn’t normally need a nickname, but his last name is just a little too tricky to pronounce to ever catch on as a stand alone with the media. I propose we all start calling him the Iguanodon. What you don’t like that? Well I don’t see you coming up with any ideas. Anyways …

Iguodala has all the tools to become a powerful defender/enforcer for a team that needs to protect their best scorer to stay in contention. Fortunately he just happens to play for such a team and they do seem to understand his value. Unfortunately being a great defender larger relies on the effort that you put into it. Philly has such a bad psychology at this point, as a city and a team, with the front office making ridiculous commitments to their aging stars that it’s a wonder Iguodala puts in any effort at all. Normally this would be a situation where a player would seek a change of scenery to revitalize their spirits. Since the 76er’s will want to keep him though, they’re likely to offer him a nice pay raise to try and recapture his lost passion.

45. Luol Deng:

What he earned- $9.6 Million

What he was paid- $2.4 Million

What he’s worth- $9.25 Million

I have a lot of faith in Luol to develop into the best Duke player in the NBA since Grant Hill (okay, maybe we can think of a better role model for his career. He can make an impact on both sides of the court and more complete game than most second year players have. I don’t want to jinx him by heaping on too much praise. Here’s hoping the Bulls prove to be the caliber of team they’re predicted to be, so Deng’s profile will rise and his value will appreciate.

44. Nedad Krstic:

What he earned- $9.53 Million

What he was paid- $1.0 Million

What he’s worth- $9.5 Million

Here’s the truth straight out –Krstic’s current value is hard to evaluate at this point, and it may take a few seasons to figure out. A players who has a breakout season like Krstic did last year, is difficult to judge, because she may have gotten lucky, it may be a fuke, or she may be truly skilled. A player who is surrounded with quality teammates like Krstic has in Jason Kidd, Richard Jefferson, and Vince Carter can’t be clearly measured, because it’s hard to separate her individual accomplishments from the help she received from her peers. A player from a foreign country like Krstic is really tricky to predict, since her employers don’t have as much accurate background information on her performance on which to estimate here future performance. Overall it leads me to believe that while Krstic may have proven himself to be capable of significant on court contributions, his team can’t bet their future on his potential. He could turn out to be the next Nowitski, or he could be just another anonymous foreign player. For the moment I imagine the Nets will only pay him as much as the next Vlad Divac, and it’ll be hard to say for certain whether that was a smart move or not.

43. Amare Stoudemire:

What he earned- $10,000

What he was paid- $2.6 Million

What he’s worth- $9.51 Million

More than any other player on this list Amare has an unpredictable future in front of him. There have been few players to make such an impressive showing early in their careers as Amare did two seasons ago. There are even fewer players who have had to come back from extensive surgery to reclaim that greatness. Trying to put a price tag on any player’s value is always a crap shoot, but as anyone who knows gambling can tell you, craps is one of the only casino games where the odds favor the smart player over the house. Bidding on Stoudemire’s contract is less like making a calculated gamble in a casino for the Phoenix Suns and more of like purchasing futures on the stock exchange. Still if you take the odds of Amare reaching his ceiling and multiply it by the dollar value a player like that would have, you still wind up with a fairly high number. I’m not sure what it is exactly but for the sake of the Pay Scale I’ll estimate it as being just a little higher than “the next Vlad Divac”.

42. Josh Howard:

What he earned- $8.61 Million

What he was paid- $900,000

What he’s worth- $9.52 Million

Following the Finals, a lot of analysis dissected how poor the officiating was, how unstoppable Dwayne Wade was, how unstable the Heat’s roster was, how angry Mark Cuban was. In all of that no one ever explained where Josh Howard was. He had been a huge difference maker in the regular season and should be entering his peak years. Yet when his team needed him most his production seriously declined. The Heat and the Mavs were close enough that if Howard had played up to his full potential, they might have won. The Mavs need to pay Josh good money to retain his production, but there’s no reason to go crazy. He’s just a notch above the other guys getting paid mostly for their potential.

41. Ron Artest:

What he earned- $8.46 Million

What he was paid- $6.8 Million

What he’s worth- $9.6 Million

Until Ron-Ron’s rap career takes off we’re stuck with him trying to earn a living in the NBA. I think it should be obvious by now that Ron Artest is the new version of Dennis Rodman. They both make a huge impact even when they don’t have the ball, but they both can kill your team through mental lapses and bad locker room chemistry. They both a worth a sizeable contract, but a smart team would make most of that based on incentives. Artest with the Pacers was like Rodman with Detroit. Now that he’s with Sacramento he’s turning into Rodman during his Spurs years. That means Artest could have some “Rodman as a Bull” years in front of him, but also some more nutty episodes too. Watch out for Ron to take on more of Rodman’s style as his career continues. In fact if I could I would lay money on Artest’s hair changing color at least once this season.

40. Alonzo Mourning:

What he earned- $7.44 Million

What he was paid- $1.1 Million

What he’s worth- $9.75 Million

Basic etiquette should stipulate that any player who makes a major contribution to winning a championship should get some kind of pay raise. Of course I’m calling for a pretty massive raise so I should explain myself. ‘Zo has earned major money for several reasons. First he was clearly the third best player last year, but he did it for a twelfth man’s wages, that commitment has to be rewarded. Second for as much as Dwayne Wade is the Heat’s best player and Shaq is their public face, Mourning is the team’s emotional leader and the key to giving them energy in the middle of slow games. Third, now that Shaq’s gotten nothing left to prove Alonzo will definitely be carrying more of a load down on South Beach. Fourth his pay is artificially low be cause he forced his way out of a high paying contract to get onto a championship contender. Finally this is a player who has come back from a major kidney illness. His team knows that his health is an issue, but he’s already come out of the worst. Everyone knows that the time he spent in IR after being traded to Toronto was less than legit, so he doesn’t really have any recent history of problems. Surely no one can play the “we don’t know how much more career he has left” card. He has about as much career left as any other player his age, and under the Pay Scale method he would be paid as much as any other player who has accomplished what he has.

39. Brad Miller:

What he earned- $11.23 Million

What he was paid- $8.8 Million

What he’s worth- $10 Million

Sacramento’s front office will find it hard to put a dollar value on Miller. He never dominated a game. He always plays efficiently. He’s reached the decline phase of his career. He’s one of the few centers you can really rely on anymore. For all the he has to offer a team, in the current market he’s worth at least $10 million.

38. Boris Diaw:

What he earned- $11.78 Million

What he was paid- $1.1 Million

What he’s worth- $10.05 Million

Of course a lot of his value may be dependent on playing with Steve Nash in the Suns super-speed offense. In every other system of rating players that would lead to someone to drop Diaw lower down the ladder because they would have to grade him “independently” of his teammates and players. In the Pay Scale method I try to fairly evaluate how much a player is worth within his current situation. I don’t think anyone believes Diaw would be as good without Nash, Marion, and Stoudemire around him. Since he does have them around him he is easily a top level production player, plus an easy way for the Suns to get a foothold in the European market. Every other team wants to play offense like the Suns and everyone want a bigger international presence, which is only going to ensure Diaw draws a hefty contract.

37. Marcus Camby:

What he earned- $7.61 Million

What he was paid- $9.2 Million

What he’s worth- $10.25 Million

Already well compensated, Marcus Camby may not have been an obvious candidate to earn a pay raise. He has been effective and efficient as a center, just never dominant. In this era though, when all the best big men play power forward, though, the market is going to keep driving the price of quality centers up. Also, he proved to serve a vital function in Denver’s overall scheme. He clears the board and carries more than his fair share on the defensive end. If the Nuggets hold onto him he’s bound to develop enough fan loyalty to earn his extra million.

36. Kirk Hinrich:

What he earned- $6.58 Million

What he was paid- $2.5 Million

What he’s worth- $10.26 Million

In case you Bulls fans haven’t had enough bad news I’m just going to remind you of another top level player that merits big money. In the ideal market reflected in the Pay Scale method, Kirk would have been given $10+ million to lock down one of Chicago’s best hopes for the future. Of course that wouldn’t account for giving Ben Wallace a boat load of money, would it. Nope. Now instead of capturing and exciting young player with an established fan base from his college days and a lot of marketability, the Bulls have a post-prime center with no offensive tools and a quirky personality. Sorry I promised I wouldn’t say anymore about it. Suffice to say Bulls fans and execs will wish they could pay Hinrich the boatload of money and Big Ben the artificially low salary pretty soon.

35. Jason Terry:

What he earned- $11.89 Million

What he was paid- $6.7 Million

What he’s worth- $10.95 Million

Jet is a tremendous player, and just the kind of secondary offensive threat the Maverick’s needed to reach the finals. Since no one disagrees with his value (at least as far as I’ve heard), I wanted to spend a little time looking into an interesting phenomenon that Jason Terry demonstrates. Given the number of players whose careers have gone to another level after leaving the Atlanta Hawks, and given that it’s becoming increasingly clear that Michael Vick was a much better quarterback with Virginia Tech than he is with the Atlanta Falcons, isn’t just possible that there’s something about the city of Atlanta itself that draws down people’s ability to perform? If that is the case, how far does this extend? If Ludacris moved to Chicago would he jump Kanye, Eminem, and Jay-Z as a rap artist? If Adult Swim relocated to New York would they become the best rated programming block on TV? These are the questions that keep me up at night.

34. Richard Jefferson:

What he earned- $15.15 Million

What he was paid- $13.8 Million

What he’s worth- $ 10.99 Million

RJ is easily the third best player on the Nets. His history with injury problems and shakey clutch performance has made it clear he’s a little overpaid right now. Still how can a team looking to supplant the Knicks as New York’s premier basketball team really lowball one of their most productive and most marketable players. The Nets would probably edge him off a little, keeping him just under $11 mil to send a message.

33. Michael Bibby:

What he earned- $9.02 Million

What he was paid- $11.5 Million

What he’s worth- $11 Million

At some point during the off season the Sacramento executives must have looked at their roster and asked “How many players do we have that can comfortably and consistently make plays and lead the team on the floor?” When the answer came back just “Just Bibby”, do you think they swore because they were shocked at how far they’ve fallen or because they were resigned to there new position? Bibby may still have the advantage over most point guards in the Association. However, the Kings team is pretty much condemned to the realm of “we’ll make the bottom of the playoff brackets and we’ll have to try and win just enough games to land that favorable match-up against either a soft division winner or a to-seed with a lousy homecourt”. The most you can offer a player in a situation like that just a little under max money. After all it’s not like you seriously need/will get his maximum effort anyways.

32. Tracy McGrady:

What he earned- $9.36 Million

What he was paid- $15.7 Million

What he’s worth- $11,000,001

Frankly, I think it is astonishing McGrady even earned $9 million last season. Plagued with injuries, he’s seemed to lack consistency when he has played. He hasn’t been getting into the kind of grooves you used to see where he could just like up the scoreboard and lay down a few weeks worth of games where he was just the model of efficiency. Maybe he still hasn’t gotten used to sharing the ball and not having to save the team single handedly every time he takes the court. This summer I read some very revealing information that made it seem like Tracy McGrady was the best young player the NBA had ever seen. Of course he’s not turning into much of a veteran player so you have to take that with a grain of salt. I know the Rockets can’t value T-Mac at much more than $11 million, but they also know lots of teams would snatch him up for just a little less the $11 mil. Consider the extra dollar on the end a symbol of some small amount the Rockets pay to keep Tracy out of reach of any of their competitors, at least for now.

31. Manu Ginobli:

What he earned- $10.95 Million

What he was paid- $7.4 Million

What he’s worth- $11.2 Million

After watching the NBA playoff last season, I was prepared to predict that Ginobli would take a pay cut for his boneheaded foul of Dirk Nowitski in the closing minutes of game 7 of the series between the Spurs and Mavs. Since that one mistake was just about all it took to keep the Spurs from progressing to play an easily beatable Suns team and possibly the Miami Mercenari-er, I mean, Heat in the NBA Finals -when Dwayne Wade was about the only thing keeping that team from collapsing- you have to figure the Spurs front office would take some kind of punitive action. Then I remembered that with Tim Duncan at 60% for most of the season, Ginobli was one of the main reasons the Spurs even got the top seed in the Western Conference, let alone to game 7 in the second round. Also the more success Manu has in the NBA, the more his team should have to add on top of his contract, so he can set aside something for the inevitable kidnapping of one of his family members. In fact, maybe this should become a standard part of any foreign player’s contract.

30. Jason Kidd:

What he earned- $14.58 Million

What he was paid- $16.4 Million

What he’s worth- $11.25 Million

Jason Kidd just continues to amaze me. Last year I prepared for the worst as he had to overcome the triple whammy of trying to put together a full season after a bad injury, entering the decline phase of his career, and watching his window of opportunity for a championship slip away. He already has landed the big money contract that will pay for his retirement. In fact if Kidds current contract hadn’t been negotiated with the Nets when he was at his strongest and they were at their most vulnerable, there is no way his success at the time would have earned him tens of millions of dollars before 2010. The franchise was now in Vince Carter’s hands, and the future of the team once they move to Brooklyn was on the planning table. Kidd had nothing left to prove, and nothing left to fight for. I was all set to see a serious decline in both his production and his effort. He absolutely stunned me by not only looking like the Jason Kidd of old, but bringing great defense to compensate for his waning offense. Here is a player who is worth a major contract, just not the oodles of dollars he’s earning now.

29. Dwight Howard:

What he earned- $10.98 Million

What he was paid- $4.5 Million

What he’s worth- $11.5 Million

This one is a total no-brainer. Howard is the best bet the NBA has right now to become the next dominant center. He absolutely has earned his keep on the court. He already has Orlando on the verge of playoff contention. Plus, he’s the most marketable star the Magic have had since Shaq and He-Who-Shall-Not-Be-Named Hardaway. The Magic will absolutely cough up a big wad of cash rather than lose the rights to Dwight. (By the way, has anyone else found it out that two of the hottest young stars in the league are named Dwayne and Dwight? Do either of those names scream basketball greatness to you? Wouldn’t it be cool if we could get them on the same team as Derrick Coleman, just to hear broadcast announcers say “Dwayne passes inside to Dwight. Dwight passes back Dwewick. Oh, cwap!”)

28. Andre Kirilenko:

What he earned- $15.5 Million

What he was paid- $11 Million

What he’s worth- $11.75 Million

Naturally the Jazz can’t cough up really big money until they have some assurances that AK’s teammates will be healthy and the franchise can expect some competitive success. With that in mind last year the Jazz were pretty awful as a team, but Kirilenko managed to get a huge amount of publicity for himself and the team just the same. Granted that was largely due details of an agreement between he and his wife that AK-47 gets one free extramarital “indiscretion” a year with no repercussions from her becoming public. You can’t tell me that kind of story couldn’t be spun into some kind of marketing advantage. You know the single people in your life who have little “celebration rituals” for when they get a little somethin’ somethin’. Oh, shut up, you know that guy! Imagine if Utah could start a viral marketing campaign based on the idea of people like that. They would call getting away with some side action a “Kirilenko”, and wear one of his jerseys the day after an “extracurricular” encounter. (BTW: In no way am I encouraging this stuff, especially not extramarital affairs, I am just noting that it goes on and the Utah Jazz could get a little boost from it.)

27. Shawn Marion:

What he earned- $15.49 Million

What he was paid- $13.7 Million

What he’s worth- $11.9 Million

Marion will always have a place in my heart for inspiring my official rap anthem for my fantasy basketball draft in 2003. Specifically his fantasy proficiency, and my refusal to buy into LeBron James at that point combined to inspire the lyrics, “Pump it up if you came to get it on/ If your name is not LeBron / It’s Marion comma Shawn /Pump it up if stats are just your thing/ you can do anything/ dunks, dimes, and blocking”. Obviously I have no future as an MC. Equally obviously Marion can’t seem to shake the allegation that his impressive performance so far, including all those sexy fantasy stats, are mostly the product of playing with exceptional teammates. I don’t necessarily agree with this, in fact the “earned” salary above from 82games.com suggests something else entirely. As long as the Phoenix front office has that modicum of doubt though, I expect they will roll back Marion’s paycheck to reward some of his teammates a little more.

26. Tayshaun Prince:

What he earned- $15.92 Million

What he was paid- $1.8 Million

What he’s worth- $11.95 Million

If I grant you that Tayshaun is dangerously close to following in Ben Wallace’s footsteps as being “the players who gets mentioned as ‘underrated’ so many times he eventually becomes overrated”, will you grant me that at least in the last season he played above his current pay by as much of a margin as almost anyone in the association. I had the good fortune of watching a lot of Pistons games last season, and he was a sight to be seen. It was obvious how much he mattered to that team. I am convinced that if Tayshaun had only played up to the level of his paycheck , then the Pistons would have been a shadow of what they were last season, and the Heat would have probably finished as the top seed in the East. Remember that as a handy counterexample the nest time someone tries to tell you the NBA is full of players with bad attitudes who don’t care about winning the games. The Pistons last year were a high performance machine and Prince was their fuel. The only players who merit more money than him are The Stars.

NBA Pay Scale 2006- The Middlings

The Middlings

This section of the Pay Scale accounts for those ballers who have definite value, just not tons of it. Make no mistake most of these cats can play, and a lot of them have a touch of star level marketability too. In fact, I pretty much based the cut off for this list at those players who are no worse than an NBA 6^th man. However whatever skills these players possess and whatever marquee value their name may carry, none of them are worth top level, possible All-Star, money. Some of these players have been overpaid; some have been underpaid. All of them are worth at least a decent offer from their team.

Just a reminder the rules are here, and be sure to read up on the Lowlights, too.

180. Mehmet Okur:

What he earned- $10.69 Million

What he was paid- $8.3 Million

What he’s worth- $1 Million

For a few years I thought Okur was undervalued as a basketball player, and the stats from 82games.com, seem to indicate as much. As much as I like the fact that a bulk, awkward white guy with a unibrow is holding his own in the Association, it’s become clear that he’s quickly losing market value. His physical prowess may have already peaked. Though he’s developed a better offensive skill set since moving to Utah, he still was clearly worth more as a big defensive body back when the rules favored a more physical game. Now that light, quick shooters who can penetrate the paint are more valuable with the current rules, it’s very likely that Mehmet will find himself spending more time on the bench as teams start picking up the new Euro players who are designed for this kind of play. It’s sad really Okur came into the NBA just as style of play changed from something he was suited for to a game that fits him about as well as Dancing with the Stars suited Tucker Carlson. Still every once in awhile teams need a big body to get some defensive stops. So I imagine Okur is still worth at least a cool mill, which is like 5.7 trillion in Turkish lira.

178. Andre Miller:

What he earned- $9.55 Million

What he was paid- $8.1 Million

What he’s worth- $1.25 Million

As a relatively productive starter, the Nuggets won’t want to part with him or offend him, for fear of upsetting the delicate nucleus they’ve formed around Melo. However it’s become pretty clear that his best is behind him, and the Nuggets would rather be focusing their money on their underpaid center piece than some overpriced role player.

170. Gerald Wallace:

What he earned- $8.84 Million

What he was paid- $5 Million

What he’s worth- $1.5 Million

Here’s a hugely underrated player. He never got a fair chance back when he played for some crowded Sacramento Kings’ teams. Then he gets shipped to Charlotte where he may have become the Bobcats’ best player. A knee injury last season hid the fact that he was blossoming both offensively and defensively. Now the Bobcats will have a hard time relying on him to make significant contributions, especially when they want to give their more marketable young stars more minutes (and money). This guy has demonstrated Scottie Pippen level promise, but he may never get a chance to fulfill it. Gerald Wallace is underpaid and underappreciated in the NBA , sadly I don’t see that changing any time soon. This is a tough pay cut for a man who deserves better.

(P.S. Keep this on the DL, but here’s hoping the Cavaliers find a way to land him, and he and LeBron get a chance to take things to that next level.)

165. Zach Randolph:

What he earned- $6.5 Million

What he was paid- $10.7 Million

What he’s worth- $1.63 Million

Randolph does still have the potential to become a gritty, tough forward. The kind of reliable vet teams can keep on the bench and depend on to eat up some minutes. At this point Portland has made it clear that’s all they expect out of him anymore. With the Trailblazers’ youth movement on the horizon, it’s clear they want a lot less of their money sunk into Randolph. Plus you have to believe that starting your career for the Jailblazers these last few years has to have been the basketball equivalent of starting high school in remedial classes. You can go onto become a decent student and that’s considered a success, but you can probably kiss your chances of becoming valedictorian goodbye.

158. Gary Payton:

What he earned- $1.02 Million

What he was paid- $1.1 Million

What he’s worth- $1.75 Million

Some of you may find this shocking, but I am calling for a pay increase for Gary Payton. That’s right. I think Gary over-the-hill, nothing-left-to-prove, bad-chemistry-guy Payton deserves more money. First remember that it’s not that much more money, only about 1/10^th of what the Knicks paid Jamal Crawford. Second, for all his supposed flaws last season he actually earned his keep and helped Miami win a championship. In my book that kind of player should get a little reward. Finally, now that Shaq’s proven all he needs to, Dwayne Wade has reached megastar status, and most of the other teammates have finally won the ring they’ve wanted for so long, complacency is bound to set in. That’s exactly why you need a cranky, unpredictable GP on your roster to keep everyone on their toes and the title defense alive.

147. Eddie Jones:

What he earned- $8.12 Million

What he was paid- $14.6 Million

What he’s worth- $2 Million

Eddie has been a useful swingman for multiple teams and can probably learn to work in a lot of different systems. However the market value for Eddie has never really matched his salary. Now that Memphis has his contract and they are absolutely swimming in capable players, I think they try and get a bargain out of a player with limited remaining shelf life and their for limited potential earning power.

132. Antoine Walker:

What he earned- $3.64 Million

What he was paid- $6.9 Million

What he’s worth- $2.25 Million

Once again I’m willing to bet the Miami Heat would agree with 82games.com that Walker has earned somewhere between $3-4 million. However I also think they will deduct serious cash for all of those bricks he throws up where even retirees in the Miami stands can tell have no prayer. Also, do you really want to cough up $4 mill for a guy who was such an after thought in the NBA finals.

99. Peja Stojakovic:

What he earned- $6.58 Million

What he was paid- $7.5 Million

What he’s worth- $2.8 Million

Here’s a player who hurt his value by moving in the off season. Peja proved his ability as a scoring threat with the Pacers then moved to New Orleans. The Hornets definitely won’t put too much money into Peja since they obviously want to focus on Chris Paul. Also, Peja could never really create his own shot, so he’ll have a hard time demonstrating his value to the team independent of Paul’s brilliant point guard play.

98. Mike James:

What he earned- $9.62 Million

What he was paid- $3.4 Million

What he’s worth- $2.85 Million

No NBA team will pay someone who’s already 31 years old and never was an All-Star caliber player, no matter how well they play. That’s the simple and sad truth that will keep Mike James from getting paid his due.

83. Delonte West:

What he earned- $7.73 Million

What he was paid- $1 Million

What he’s worth- $3.15 Million

If you’re surprised to see Delonte West rated so highly here, then that means two things. One, Bill Simmons has apparently not been endlessly piling on the love for this particular young Celtic –or, at least, I haven’t been the only one tuning him out when his Boston homerism kicks in. Second, that the Pay Scale method is doing its job by raising the profile of some players with hidden value. Here’s a great young player who’s starting to develop some killer scoring power, and only needs o improve his defense a little to become a true star. The Boston execs want to protect their promising young talent, so they’ll triple his pay, and still get him for a bargain.

80. Rashard Lewis:

What he earned- $8 Million

What he was paid- $8.6 Million

What he’s worth- $3.25 Million

This one feels a little odd placing Rashard at this point in the Pay Scale. Everything I know about statistical analysis of basketball tells me that Rashard, while dominating the traditional stats, definitely earns his keep. His skills, defense, rebounding, and presence on the court, subtly and certainly tilt many factors in favor of his team. I also know that the Seattle Sonics respect a player’s value outside of the traditional stats. They worked with the Godfather of Basketball Stats Dean Oliver after all. So I believe he deserves a higher slot. I know he won’t get a better deal because the Sonics realize most other teams won’t respect his value. They are always looking for a bargain and they’ll risk insulting Lewis to guarantee they have more money available for other players.

79. Cuttino Mobley:

What he earned- $7.62 Million

What he was paid- $7.2 Million

What he’s worth- $3.3 Million

We’ve reached kind of a sad stretch here. Mobley will be one more player I value at significantly less than both his current earnings and their objective earnings from last season, and he won’t be the last. I blame this on a few things. First, you have to remember that ownership considers current salaries to be greatly exaggerated as a result of several (in their opinion) regrettable collective bargaining agreements. Second, front offices would rather overpay top talent -because they know everyone else would shell out a lot of money for them too, if given the chance- and underpay the rest -because they know the other teams only pay top dollar for role players when they’re forced too. A lot of front office execs have a sense of how valuable these players truly are, but for many of them they couldn’t demonstrate that value with enough certainty to justify the cost to ownership. This also makes it hard for background players to demand much more during contract negotiations. Third, keep in mind the marquee players whose names sell merchandise and boost season ticket sales are going to draw bigger paychecks, because their marketability pays for a portion of their contract. If you can’t recognize a player’s face from a commercial you might as well cut $3 million off their current salary, because as far as ownership is concerned it would just be money wasted on a bad investment. Fourth, the old adage of past performance being no indicator of future success is in play here. These players may have done remarkably well last season and they’ll try and raise expectations that they can do it again next season, if the price is right. The teams however are conditioned to always limit their expectations, and lowball the offered money accordingly. After all, a great season could be the sign of a blossoming star or a fluke. Finally, this is still a zero sum game. Now team can afford to dump endless piles of money on their entire roster. So they will hold back the big money from their supporting players to save some up for the stars. Sorry to take such a detour, but I thought it was important I clarify why my Pay Scale ratings seem to devalue so many players. Anyways. . .

Cuttino Mobley has found himself on a suddenly successful team –the Los Angeles Clippers- who are trying to find ways to improve themselves that don’t seem to focus on him very much –give more minutes to young players, shy away from score first players with some habits that make them a bit unreliable. Basically Elgin Baylor has spent the last several months sending Cuttino the signal “We like you and you’re great, but we aren’t married to you or anything.” Basically they want to keep him but only at half his current capacity, so they’ll try to get him at about half price.

77. Rasheed Wallace:

What he earned- $13.59 Million

What he was paid- $10.9 Million

What he’s worth- $3.5 Million

Rasheed’s stock as a player has slowly declined after suddenly peaking with the Pistons’ championship season. His production last year largely derived from the fact that Detroit’s energy, focus, and chemistry as a team were off the charts, up until the playoffs that is. The starting rotation was playing the best team basketball Rasheed could ever hope to play in. Of course now that the Ben Wallace has left, that unit is a shell of it’s former self. I don’t know how anyone can expect ‘Sheed to replicate his performance of the last few year when he will draw the attention of the opponent’s toughest big man, and has to create space for himself in the low post. Plus, you have to consider the fact that the new rule banning players from complaining about the officials on court is sure to limit ‘Sheed’s value. He may give up as much as a third of the points he produces in cheap technicals this season. So with all these factors working against him, count on Detroit offering Rasheed a serious pay cut.

72. Caron Butler:

What he earned- $7.88 Million

What he was paid- $2.5 Million

What he’s worth- $4 Million

Butler’s one of those players who made the most of his situation and should be rightly rewarded. Forced to start the season on the bench by the Wizards, Butler really turned a corner in his career. He finally established himself as a reliable scorer and positive court presence. Since he still has multiple good years in him, he could provide Washington with a sold piece in their Gilbert Arenas fueled machine especially as Antwan Jamison and Antonio Daniels. This is another fine young player capable of serving his team well into the future that the Wizards will definitely find worthy of more money.

64. Wally Szczerbiak:

What he earned- $9.23 Million

What he was paid- $10 Million

What he’s worth- $4.5 Million

Wally’s major weakness is his lack of marketability. Normally when a player has been consistently productive whenever he plays, everyone would be okay with him drawing big money. In this case Wally has to shoulder the unenviable cross of being labeled a “white stiff”, plus he has to convince everyone he’s gotten over the injury bug that limited him in the past. Those are two big factors that will normally limit your contract. Worst of all though nobody wants to buy a jersey with “Szczerbiak” written on the back.

60. Shane Battier:

What he earned- $10.54 Million

What he was paid- $4.9 Million

What he’s worth- $5 Million

Battier is one of my favorite players and has proven he’s a reliable swingman with many underappreciated skills. Even on a team full of reliable swingmen with underappreciated skills, Shane has stood out as one of the major reasons for Memphis’s success. Let’s boost his pay a little, because he has certainly earned it.

58. Lamar Odom:

What he earned- $12.09 Million

What he was paid- $11.5 Million

What he’s worth- $6 Million

Odom has the odd habit of performing his best when Kobe Bryant is out of the Lakers’ lineup. This is great since he’s clearly demonstrating his value as L.A.’s second banana. Though in the eyes of Jerry Buss and the Lakers’ front office I can see how that’s not so great. Why should a team designed around feeding Kobe the ball pay top dollar for a player who plays worse when he has to support No. 8 No. 24. In his efforts to prove himself as a star in his own right, Lamar may have just hustled himself out of a bigger contract. (Not that anyone in the purple and gold could have worked themselves into a better deal, since Jerry will take ever opportunity he gets to give Kobe more money.)

55. Antwan Jamison:

What he earned- $15.15 Million

What he was paid- $13.8 Million

What he’s worth- $7 Million

Antwan Jamison is another player of which I’m a fan. As a journey man who takes more of a workman like approach to the game, he often gets undervalued. He’ll likely be undervalued once again, as the Wizards assume he’s 1) past his prime, and 2) not an essential member of Gilbert Arenas’ supporting cast. After all if he doesn’t like the offer he can just move to another teams, by now he should be used to it.

53. Ben Gordon:

What he earned- $6.79 Million

What he was paid- $3.6 Million

What he’s worth- $7.5 Million

Here’s player who has to draw top dollar, not just on potential, but because he is just the sort of weapon most NBA teams lack. Since Pat Riley and the Knicks turned each basketball game into a 3-hour-long-grind fest, most franchises have focused on big guys, and bangers who slow down the game and suck all the energy out of the arena by the second half. Now the Chicago Bulls finally have a response to reverse all that. With Ben Gordon you can give your team boost , force the tempo up a little and pour in an additional points in the half to push your team to the next level. Let me put it this way Gordon had, by general consensus, a sophomore slump last season. Yet even at a reduced value he played well enough to earn nearly twice his current salary. The Pay Scale rewards hot young players with a strong future in front of them, because they are the players owners love to market and build teams around. Gordon is just their kind of guy.

51. Ben Wallace:

What he earned- $14.26 Million

What he was paid- $7.5 Million

What he’s worth- $8 Million

I had a great argument prepared about Ben Wallace and why teams should avoid overpaying him. I had a lot of stats to show that he could improve a team but not as much as a max money player. I would have explained the same thing I did in my comment on Rasheed Wallace, how the Piston’s system last year greatly boosted the starting five’s value past a point you could ever get them to play at again. I was going to show that no team could risk taking on a center with his limited offense on, especially as he leaves his prime, unless they know they can surround him with four other above average scorers. Then the Chicago Bulls went and paid him a boatload of money. I have nothing more to say about this, except that in a sane and rational basketball market Ben Wallace would never belong with the players in the Top Tier.

NBA Pay Scale 2006- The Lowlights

The following players represent some of the league’s embarrassments. These are players who have either lucked their way into highly undeserved contracts or who have turned into disturbing disappointments on the court. In any case their respective teams would show VERY little interest in bringing them back. I don’t think that means they would just let them go. After all you never know when one of these players could turn the corner. Plus, there’s always something to be said for saving face. However, just because the teams make them an offer doesn’t mean it will be a good one as you will see.
Just in case you need them, the rules are here.

465. Anfernee Hardaway:
What he earned (according to 82games.com)- $180,000
What he was paid (his actual salary for 2005-2006)- $15.8 Million
What he’s worth (my own Pay Scale rating)- −$5 Million
After years of disappointment, I predict the Knicks would use this opportunity to try and finally get a little of their sunk losses back from Hardaway. Anfernee has spent season after season of living off the Knicks’ dime while contributing nothing to almost nothing on the court and has racked up quite a debt to the ownership over this time. If given the chance to name their price for Hardaway the Knicks will probably ask for some of their money back (When did we stop calling him “Penny” by the way? Was it around about the same time he started sucking so hard Chris Rock refused to associate his name with Lil’ Penny?) I know it may seem cruel but before you accuse me of trying to reinstate indentured servitude ask yourself the following questions. Have you seen any game that Hardaway played in during the last six years, that didn’t make you want to demand your money back, even if you didn’t pay to see it? And, how else to propose the Knicks raise the money to buy out the remainder of Larry Brown’s regrettable contract.

464. Stevie Francis:
What he earned- $4.26 Million
What he was paid- $13.7 Million
What he’s worth- − $4.05 Million
Here’s another player that’s become more risk than reward. Francis has become an absolute chemistry killer wherever he goes, second only to Terrell Owens in major American sports. What’s the average life expectancy of a coach’s career when Francis is involved, eight months? Six? Since Isaiah Thomas made this mess you can bet he wouldn’t put his coaching career on the line without taking a bite out of Stevie Frantic first; he may be crazy and incompetent but he isn’t suicidal. Now’s the time for New York to tell Francis to pony up if he wants to continue to have the privilege of living in New York, playing basketball in the biggest media market, getting great seats at Madison Square Garden while he slowly nurses an injury, and being able to put “NBA player” on his W-2’s.
(Random aside: What do you think NBA player’s put on their W-2’s, do they write “professional athlete” or “basketball player”? Do some of them get creative, like does Rip Hamilton write “baller” and Kobe Bryant write “The Mamba”? If Shaq wrote “Most dominant basketball player of the new millennium” on an IRS form would anyone argue? I realize that since all of these guys have accountants and that probably makes the issue moot, but still you find yourself wondering these things some times. Anyways …)

460. Stephon Marbuy:
What he earned- $5.67 Million
What he was paid- $16.5 Million
What he’s worth- $0
Does it surprise anyone that I have listed three Knicks as being among the players least deserving of their current paycheck? I think that slams the Knicks organization as much as I need to for the rest of this piece. I pretty much base Starbury’s $0 salary on one fact. Near the end of last season he claimed he loved the Knicks so much he wanted to retire as a Knick and have his ashes scattered at Madison Square Garden. Fine, I will take him at his word. If this son of New York really cares so much about this team then let him play for it for free. Prove you love this game, by playing like you would on the playground and not like a show boat trying to earn a few extra dollars in his next contract or endorsement deal.

402. Carlos Boozer:
What he earned- $2.31 Million
What he was paid- $11.6 Million
What he’s worth- $50,000
If anyone doubts that LeBron James is the child of destiny sent to lead the NBA to the promised land just look at all the bad karma that came down on Carlos Boozer as soon as he betrayed the King. Boozer was a promising young player who looked like he might become the much needed reliable second banana for LeBron, then he pulled out of his negotiations with Cleveland to land a sweeter deal at Utah. Ever since he has fought off multiple injuries and quickly become another disappointing and overpriced vet. The Jazz take this opportunity to pay him like a promising young player again, just to see if that makes him hungry again.

401. Grant Hill:
What he earned- $1.71 Million
What he was paid- $15.7 Million
What he’s worth- $60,000
Since coming into the NBA Grant Hill has seen it all, he’s lived the “Next Big Thing” story, the “Superstar on the Verge of Greatness” story, the “Tragic Setbacks that will Only Make for a Better Ghostwritten Autobiography” story, the “When’s He Coming Back?” story, the “Seriously Dawg He Better Get Back in the Game Soon” story, the “He’s Still Around?” story, the “Feel Good Almost Meaningful Comeback” story, the “Why’s He Saying Other Player’s Are Racist for Questioning J.J. Redick’s Ability?” story, and finally the “Yes, His Contract is Almost Up and We’ll Have Cap Room Again!” story. The Magic want his salary off their books, but they’ll pay him a pittance in the hopes he pulls a Tiki Barber, and they sell a few extra tickets and jerseys during his farewell tour.

375. Paul Shirley:
What he earned- $0
What he was paid- $0
What he’s worth- $80,000
For those of you who don’t read many sarcastic, online columns that provide an cynical insider’s perspective on basketball, then you probably haven’t been following the writing career of Paul Shirley, professional benchwarmer an all around great guy. Since he began writing a blog for the Phoenix Suns’ website Paul has taken fans behind the curtain in the NBA, the shady basketball minor leagues, and onto the set of his never released pilot for a TV show based on his life. Now that the Timberwolves have foolishly cut him from their roster just before the season began, I am using this column as my outcry for justice. Some team in the NBA MUST put Shirley on their roster. I know he isn’t worth much as a basketball player (that sounds like a nasty thing to say about someone whose one of the 300 best basketball players on the planet, but you have to realize that that’s just on the edge of breaking into an NBA team’s core rotation), but you have to admit he has a loyal fan base how will surely buy enough merchandise and tickets that you could afford to support his writing career, at least for one more season.

373. Antonio Davis:
What he earned- $50,000
What he was paid- $3.5 Million
What he’s worth- $90,000
Quick check: Can you even remember who Antonio Davis is? I figure he deserves $1,000 for ever person who just said “yes”. Oh heck I’ll say he deserves an even $90k, just because he’ll feel hurt if he doesn’t make more than the guy who’s just in the NBA to blog about it.

360. Jalen Rose:
What he earned- $970,000
What he was paid- $15.7 Million
What he’s worth- $100,000
Rose is another player who got cut just before the season tipped off, despite the fact that he has a little game left in him and the team will still have to pay him millions of dollars even if he never appears on court. The true injustice of all of this, is that the team that currently holds his contract (who I’m not going to mention here because they get plenty of abuse elsewhere from me) is depriving us of the opportunity to watch one of the game’s natural comedians be interviewed by the press. Rose is just too entertaining to cut out of the picture. So you have to believe that some team might pay him a fraction of his current salary just to hang around the locker room and keep everyone else loose. That’s at least what I based my Pay Scale rating on.

301. Keith Van Horn:
What he earned- $730,000
What he was paid- $15.7 Million
What he’s worth- $150,000
How Keith Van Horn ever became a max money player is still a puzzle to most basketball fans. Sure he still has some definite value on the court but he’s never going to be a major player on a quality team again. The Mavs, who are as deep as any other team in the association, really don’t have any need for him. Still, Mark Cuban has enough money to spare that if given the chance, they’ll probably toss some cash his way just to keep their depth.

226. Chris Webber:
What he earned- $5.91 Million
What he was paid- $19.1 Million
What he’s worth- $200,000
Since all Philly teams are doomed to disappoint their fans and since C-Webb is doomed to always ruin every chance he has at greatness, it only seems right that the Sixers keep him on the roster just so he doesn’t disappoint the fans. At since the Webber jinx far outweighs any Webber production they will be the only ones offering him any money, so they can get him cheap.

207. Baron Davis:
What he earned- $6.11 Million
What he was paid- $13.7 Million
What he’s worth- $250,000
I fully accept that Baron Davis is worth $6 million dollars when playing a full season at full strength. The Warriors would probably agree too. However we both know that odds are you’ll only get him for a quarter of the season at full strength and he usually is only at a sixth of his strength. So take $6 million divide by 24 and you get what I feel is an accurate Pay Scale rating of $250,000, leaving Davis just shy of the cut off level to be one of the Middlings.

NBA Pay Scale 2006- Intro

The NBA Pay Scale: A New Method of Ranking NBA Players

For as much as I enjoy the National Basketball Association, it does pose a number of vexing problems to its fans. The league’s instance on marketing itself to white Baby Boomers when it clearly has stronger appeal with young people and African Americans stands out as a particularly questionable move. I personally would like to know how any commissioner as autocratic as David Stern allows so many billionaire owners to make such a hash of their franchises. Yet above all this stands a quandary whose simplicity belies its elusiveness. How do we measure the relative value of basketball players?

It doesn’t immediately seem that comparing the value of players would be more difficult than in other sports. Yet basketball players are many times harder to rank because the game lacks a clear hierarchy. In hockey everyone acknowledges the relative superiority of a quality goaltender over a quality defenseman. In baseball no general manager would equate a position player’s value with a pitcher’s value. Football has more hierarchies than any other sport, describing the various power schemes and structures on an average team would require enough multi-colored flow charts and computer models to fill an Office Depot. The hardship of ranking NBA players comes with the fact that they all perform the same basic tasks on the court, dribbling, passing, shooting, rebounding, etc.

How then do we distinguish one player’s performance from another’s? For years people relied on the “holy trinity” of basketball stats, scoring, assists, and rebounding. Recently new statistical measures have arisen, some of which I have pointed to on this site. Others have attempted to use more subjective measures. At the beginning of the last NBA season I wrote a column greatly aping Bill Simmons annual rankings of all players based on their trade value. At that time I thought the trade value system was a useful means to rank players, since it began with the only opinion in basketball that truly mattered, that of the association’s owners and general managers. However on further review the very idea of assessing a player’s worth based on how willing the team would be to trade him seems like a backhanded compliment. Really that column pointed out that save for one guy every player in the league is someone else’s second choice. That is a very misleading way to measure the players. No team looks at its starting lineup and says “Well, we have half a Kevin Garnett, three-fourths a Sam Cassell, 0.8234 of a Brad Miller, two percent of a Kobe, and one whole Carmelo Anthony.” In fact if you want to take the front office perspective, you should remember that front offices already have a pretty basic means of assessing a player’s value; it’s called their salary.

Naturally player salaries aren’t a perfect metric either, however they do represent a simple, practical, and real world method of assigning value to a player. Any well informed basketball fan can easily point to several players whose pay is disproportionate to their play one way or the other. It’s true that due to collective bargaining agreements, marketing value, flukes of fate, or plain old bad decisions most players’ salaries are loosely tied to their on the court value. However the fine people at 82games.com, have created a method of estimating what a player’s salary would be if he were paid proportionate to his direct impact on the team’s success. You can see their work here. I was inspired by this concept, to abandon trade values as my default player rating and instead attempt to forge a new ranking system. This system applies the statistical evidence collected by 82games.com and expresses it through a clear, absolute figure that of hypothetical “fair salary” dollars. Then it combines the objective evidence with the subjective, relative assessments that drove my early writings about trade values and drive the thinking of most executives when they write the checks for the player’s actual salaries. Now I can express a player’s value through a single metric that shows a combination of the value he earned on the court and his perceived value in the eyes of the front office.

The rules for measuring players on this new Pay Scale are simple. Imagine the association passed a new rule tonight that said in the next 48 hours teams can make one bid on all their players to lock them up for the next season. No previous contracts matter. No issues of seniority or time with a team matter. No salary cap ramifications are involved. If a player turns down his team’s offer, he becomes an unrestricted free agent with the likely outcome being their current team will lose them. Now estimate how much money any given team would be willing to pay for any of their players for one season of work. I’d imagine every team would do their best to estimate the absolute highest salary a player could demand and not pay them one cent more. (I’m just going to assume that all teams want to keep their current rosters in tact, but that doesn’t mean everyone will get a good offer.) From their on out you just run down every player of interest and measure them by what they earned on the court, and what the front office perceives his value to be based on two factors: how much money can they make from that player and how does he improve their chances to win more games and more championships. I have the players ranked from bottom to top based on how much the teams would offer them.

By taking this experiment and spending way more time on it than I have to spare I have reached the following conclusions. So please read along as I rank all players in the NBA according to where I think they fall on the Pay Scale, starting with the Lowlights.

Some Historical NBA Musings

How good is Tim Duncan?

The discussion on this topic seems to have centered on Timmy’s place among the historical greats. It is clear Duncan should rank high, but how high isn’t clear. As others have noted, using career totals for comparison isn’t fair to Duncan, since he hasn’t played long enough to compile the really big numbers. On the other hand, career averages tend to favor Duncan since he’s been consistently good since the start and hasn’t entered his decline phase yet. Additionally traditional stats tend to over value certain offensive skills, while hardly representing a player’s defensive value.

To address both these problems I decided to run a side by side comparison against the other great big men of recent NBA history. I used a variety of advanced stats and variety of comparison methods to try and get as complete a measure as I could of Tim’s rank among the all time best. For stats I did separate comparisons for Personal Win Percentage, PW%, (which I believe measures a players overall efficiency and balance of offensive and defensive skill), PER (a good measure for the impact and power a player has on offense, like measuring the payload of a bomb), Win Shares (a measure of how much a player carries his team), and Offensive Rating, ORtg, above and Defensive Rating, DRtg, below the league average(which helped me understand the source of the players value as well as their impact compared to the league in which they played). I then compared the players on these stats on a career average (fair in this case because many of these numbers don’t depend on a player contributing a lot, just doing it well) their top three years (to get some sense of their value at their peak), and the average of their five best consecutive seasons (to see how consistent they were at their prime). In all of these things I kept track of the year in which it occurred to get some sense of how each player developed over time as well as how contemporaries faired under the same conditions.

I could not compare Duncan to legends like Kareem, Wilt, and Russell, because too much of their careers happened before the advanced stats were available. Also, I don’t think Tim’s resume can seriously match some of their accomplishments, like 11 championships, 50 points per game in a season, or 6 MVP’s. For similar reasons I will not be comparing him against the very recent legends, MJ, Magic, Bird, because either you believe these guys were gods or you don’t and you can’t convince people one way or the other. Assessments of the great players like Baylor, Dr. J, and the Big O have the same problems mentioned above, plus their skills and styles were so different from the Big Fundamental’s. It’s an apples and oranges thing. Who’s better is very subjective and depends on what you value. Still even if you grant that all these players were better than Tim Duncan (not to say I do, but we’ll get to that later) there’s still an open spot in the All Time Top Ten, so the stakes are very high.

With all that said let’s do the run down of Tim Duncan, versus the great big men of the last twenty-five years. I envision this as an Enter the Dragon tournament, where we pit Duncan against tougher and tougher opponents until someone takes him down. So, in descending order of how well Tim faired against the opposition, they are…


Tim Duncan vs. Patrick Ewing

No, need to go into much detail here. Duncan’s level of play has been higher and done more for his team than Ewing ever had. Ewing had terrific defensive value at some points, but Duncan’s career average for DRtg below league has been better. There’s no question about who’s been a better offensive force. Duncan’s career average of 35.3 Win Shares is better than any season Ewing ever had. Also Duncan never had a PW% as low as Ewing’s career average. Test it anyway you want. This might as well have been a bye round for Duncan.


Tim Duncan vs. Moses Malone

Moses’ career represents the furthest back I was willing to go into pro-basketball history to start looking for comparable players to Duncan. His entire career can be measured by advanced statistics, and while he is remembered fondly, he hasn’t slipped into that category of unquestionable legends. Some people who remember his three MVP’s and a lot of long time Philly fans will think he was more valuable at his prime than Tim is now. The numbers tell a different story, though. Moses had a long career, playing many years after his peak, so his averages are obviously weighted down, by years of sub par performance. His peak seasons were great with a PER of 25.1, a PW% of .929, and his best defensive and second best offensive seasons. He was a little better in certain ways than TD, averaging 40.8 Win Shares in his top 5 seasons, rather than 39.0. I was even surprised to see that while that “Fo’ fo’ fo’” season of ’83 was terrific, his 1982 season was almost as good –noticeably better offense but significantly weaker defense. Still, he peak didn’t last as long as Duncan’s has, and his play and numbers fell off a steep cliff. He didn’t have one season of note after 1985. Duncan has played more consistent ball during his career so far than Moses did in his prime. While Moses had better pure offense at his peak, Duncan has had better overall value at his. The most important factor for me though, is that Tim’s value over the league at what he does best (defense) has always been higher than Moses’ value over the league at offense. So to all the Moses fans out there, your guy is still a legend, but next to Duncan it’s not even close.


Tim Duncan vs. Hakeem Olajuwan

This match-up has a lot of interesting aspects to it. Both were born outside North America. Both have played in “Twin Towers” style offenses, both won championships as the team leader. Both have tremendous defensive reps. On offense Duncan was the pure mechanic, playing like he was a diagram in a textbook, while Hakeem was all agility and grace. If this were a contest between nicknames The Dream would crush The Big Fundamental. Two interesting discoveries I made doing this comparison. First, Hakeem’s best years may not have been his back-to-back titles, but the years preceding it (if anything, this is a testament to how good the league of that day was). His best straight five-year run definitely includes his championships though. Second, The Dream played better defense than Duncan. Olajuwan had better peak years, a better five-year prime and would have had a better career average on D if I adjusted for the dwindling years he played at the end. Outside of that though, this contest is all Duncan. Not by a little either, but by a lot. In terms of PW%, PER, Win Shares, and offense, Duncan just had more to offer. Hakeem’s two titles and two-year domination of a very tough league put him high up in my book. Still in terms of an individual player’s value, Duncan takes the prize.


Tim Duncan vs. Karl Malone

At first, when I reviewed Karl’s stats, I thought that this would be a close competition. Then I took a closer look and realized that like most things dealing with the Mailman his value came from sustaining a very good level of play over a lengthy career. He certainly delivered (ugh) on offense. The PER and ORtg numbers from his prime that clearly prove he had more power and skill (and not just at the pick and role, either). His PW% and Drtg don’t match up to Duncan’s, but they are close and speak to his ability for consistently balanced and efficient play. Also, Malone shouldered a much heavier share of the load than Duncan has had to as reflected in the Win Shares. Karl’s lifetime average of 34.7 just misses Tim’s 35.3, and Malone’s average of 44 in his prime years easily outstrips Duncan’s contribution so far. However the accumulated accomplishments don’t tell the whole story. I want to know if Malone had, at any one point, more value than Duncan. I don’t think the numbers show that, but let’s go into it in more detail.

The big knock on Malone is he has no real prime. He played his best single seasons -as measured by most of the factors- in ’97 and ’98. So that’s a good two year speak, even if it comes unusually deep into his career. But for the next best season you have to go back to 1993, and next best after that was either ’89 or ’90. It seems odd that Malone’s career came in such odd spurts. I would not expect the skill curve of a player who has always had a rep for consistently high quality play, like Malone, to look like that. I thought I’d see evidence that his value rose during his early years, then hit a high level for a few years, and the drop a little, before hitting a plateau until the end of his career. Instead I see a number of instances where his value jumps then falls. Since the Mailman never had a “bad season” to drag his averages so far down from his peak, it seems clear that he wasn’t consistently great. He was very good most years, fantastic a few years, and kept it up long enough to have great career overall.

Looking for an explanation for this, I notice that his best years on defense and in Win Shares came in the late eighties, before the Jazz became a dominant force or the Stockton-Malone combo really gelled. It seems that Malone was happy to transfer some of that burden to his teammates over the years. Given the odd hops Malone made in his power and efficiency, I have to conjecture that he had to rely on his team to get those gaudy numbers. Duncan however has clearly been the team leader, and has spent his whole career doing the things Malone only did intermittently. I think the choice is clear. It looked close at first, but now I’m certain. Whether it’s for one year, five years, or nineteen, I’ll always take Duncan over Malone.


Tim Duncan vs. Charles Barkley

This is a tough contest, and some of my decision may be a little subjective. First of all, Barkley had more of his value come from offense than any other player I looked at. His record for offensive firepower isn’t that far ahead of Duncan’s. Barkley’s watered down career average PER, 24.6, is only a little behind Duncan’s, 25.3. Though Barkley’s best five-year average of 27.1 is as high as Duncan ever got in a peak year. Barkley’s peak years are all slightly better than Duncan’s in everything but defensive value. It’s interesting to note that some of Barkley’s best defensive seasons were also some of his best in terms of PW%, and both came in years, ’93 and ’97, when he came the closest to winning a title.

At this point in my analysis, Duncan’s defensive numbers and career consistency are apples, and Barkley’s narrow edge at the peak and offensive skills are oranges. I don’t want this to be decided on MVP’s and titles, so if Tim Duncan is going to win this there has to be a statistical justification. I found it in comparing the two power forwards’ prime runs. Barkley’s top years all seem to fall in his last stretch with the Sixers, when he took the team on his back and tried to push it through an Eastern conference crowded by Larry Bird, Michael Jordan, and Isaiah Thomas. Between, 1988-91, he clearly took on a huge amount of responsibility for his team as indicated, by his high number of Win Shares, and his offense exploded, shown by high PER’s and ORtg’s. However this is offset by the fact that he played better D and more efficiently later in his career. But of course Duncan had high value and all of these things for pretty much his whole career. Plus he had higher PW% throughout. Plus, his best years stretch from 2000 through now (essentially every season he played after his rookie year that wasn’t shortened by a lockout). And he’s had to carry a big load for his team since he started, 36 Win Shares in 1998. So it comes down to Barkley’s highly concentrated peak of four years, against Duncan’s marathon of greatness, measuring at least six years. I think the argument could be made that from ‘88-’91 Charles made the bigger contribution to his team, but in ’93 and ’97 he made the better contribution. With Duncan you don’t have that divide. He did what his team needed to win, he did it in heavy doses and he did it for a long time. Barkley may have had better individual value for a short time, but Duncan has propelled his team to more wins and been more responsible for them. To argue that the Round Mound of Rebound had a better peak is to ignore certain factors in the light of a better-rounded player. Duncan got more out of several great years than Barkley got out of a few fantastic years. This isn’t about peak versus career value. This is about one player with a longer and more productive peak than another.

If you really want to bicker about it, I’ll point you to Barkley’s own comments after the 2005 Finals. Duncan had just delivered another major season for his team, and once again did it being the exact opposite kind of player Sir Charles was. So in numerous interviews Barkley was asked wear he’d rank Duncan amongst the all time greats. He said that Duncan was the best power forward of all time, better than him and many others on this list. Say what you want about Sir Charles, but he has always displayed lots of ego and lots of honesty. If his ego bowed to his honesty, then that’s good enough for me. Duncan survives for another round.


Tim Duncan vs. Kevin Garnett

This is pretty much an argument of “will be better” versus “has been better”. I’ll go into it in more detail here, but I should be clear up front. I will always take the player who did deliver over the player who could have, or might still.

First though, I’m going to get on my soapbox for a moment. I trust we’ve all noticed that these two are clear rivals in terms of talent. Between them they won three straight MVP’s and have been in three straight Western Conference Finals. Presently the battle between them to rule the league couldn’t be closer, but the differences between the beginnings of their career couldn’t be broader. One fact I don’t think has been mentioned enough is that they are the same age. Much has been made of the fact that Kevin Garnett entered the NBA straight out of high school, which eventually made the way for a flood of prep level talent. Duncan conversely attended Wake Forest, had a terrific college career, and entered the league full of promise. KG didn’t exactly struggle in his first few years, but it was clear he had not yet become a great player. TD had an instant impact, and though he had much better teammates, he was still the best player on a championship team. While lately Garnett has come up to have just as much value as, if not more than, Duncan, Kevin still had to spend a lot of his basketball life to get to that level. I feel like this perfectly summarizes the argument for how high school players have weakened the NBA.

With that out of the way, we can talk about the numbers. It’s much what you would expect. Duncan has had better averages and better stretches, but KG’s peak has been better at everything except DRtg than Dunc. What’s more all of The Big Ticket’s top numbers have come in the last one or two seasons. It seems very likely that Garnett will have more value than Duncan in the next few coming seasons. But that hasn’t happened yet, and you never can be sure that a player won’t just hit some kind of mid-career collapse. So, like I said at the top, I’ll favor value already earned over value potential. But Tim should consider himself warned, that these ratings could change significantly over the next five years.


Tim Duncan vs. David Robinson

I was surprised when looking over all of the players we talk about here to discover that Duncan’s toughest opponent was one of his own teammates. In fact is you look over the numbers I did in the ranges I defined them it looks like The Admiral might have been the best player of all. His PW% and DRtg are way better than Duncan’s. Plus his Win Shares, PER, and ORtg are all excellent as well, indicating that he played incredibly balanced, efficient and powerful basketball. While that may be true, the apparent numerical evidence of Robinson’s dominance just doesn’t pass the laugh test. We know that Robinson was hardly the best player in the NBA at any point in his career. He won his championship at the end of his career, when everyone thought he wasn’t even the best player on his team.

So how does he put up such great numbers? Do those numbers prove greatness? As far as the latter question goes I think they certainly indicate greatness. I rank Robinson higher among the all time greats than others seem to. However, I hardly think he’s in that upper echelon. My reasons for making that distinction also answer the first question.

There was a reason I looked at primes and peaks as well as career values, as well as the years they occurred. It was so that I could keep track of when and how a player lifted his average. I don’t believe that a player who has great at many things each at a different time should be put on the same level as someone who was great all at once, even though their careers may look similar in a broad view. I applied this thought to Robinson’s careers. It’s clear that his best PER and ORtg’s occurred in years that also were his best in terms of Win Shares. This does show that he had the ability to take over a team and still have a major impact. However his best years of PW%, indicative of team success, came at the years he shared with Duncan. Those years also contain his DRtg prime. So it becomes apparent that although Robinson could carry a heavy offensive load and be efficient, but not effective.

In my consideration, Duncan made Robinson better, because he took over the offense and allowed The Admiral to focus on his defense and become a more balanced and overall more effective player. Robinson’s individual value deserves recognition, but his contribution has to be judged in light of what his contribution accomplished. Duncan’s contribution went to more team success and lifted the play of his teammates, including Robinson. I think the situation with Duncan and Robinson is analogous to Magic and Kareem’s relationship. Both Robinson and Kareem had more individual value, but Duncan and Magic elevated their game and took over the burden of leading the team, which allowed their legendary teammates to have a more effective contribution. I say the Duncans and Magics are the better players. While the Kareems and Robinsons had gaudy numbers, that came overtime and accomplished little, their peers did something they never could and accomplished much.


Tim Duncan vs. Shaquille O’Neil

Now we reach an opponent Duncan cannot best. While Duncan has bested Shaq on the floor and is currently the better and more dominant player, he still hasn’t earned as much value as the Big Aristotle in the “all-time” arguments. Duncan’s on pace to supplant Shaq in overall value, but he’ll never touch Shaq’s offensive feats. True, Shaq hasn’t been as efficient or as balanced as Duncan, he’s shouldered a much bigger burden for his teams. What’s especially impressive about Shaq is how long he’s been able to sustain a high value. Looking across the different measurements, there hasn’t been a year he hasn’t either had a peak year or been in one of his prime stretches. To me this speaks of a career with as much value as Duncan has had so far, over a longer period of time. So I’ll give the edge Shaq for now, though he better watch out because even if Duncan’s doesn’t over take him Kevin Garnett might.


To Summarize:

Rating the top big men of the last twenty-five years, I put them in this order-
1. Shaq
2. Duncan
3. Hakeem
4. Robinson
5. Moses
6. Karl
7. Barkley
8. Garnett
9. Ewing

If you want to know, why this order is different than the order I listed them above, it’s because the order above was purely for show. I listed them in order of how they compared to Duncan based on my method. Here they are ordered compared to each other and incorporating things like their contribution to championship teams (which seriously helps Hakeem and Moses, but hurts Karl Malone). These ratings more accurately mirror where I would place them on an all-time list of all players. Speaking of which …

Rating the All-Time Greatest Players (noting that these are a work in progress for me)-
1. Jordan
2. Russell
3. Wilt
4. Magic
5. Kareem
6. Bird
7. Shaq
8. Oscar
9. Duncan
10. Cousy
11. Mikan
12. Baylor
13. Dr. J
14-20. Hakeem, Robinson, Moses
21-25. Karl, Barkley
40-50. Garnett, Ewing

I can’t fully demonstrate these ratings mostly for the reasons I mentioned above (insufficient info, subjective judgments about the value of different positions, and playing styles), and partly because I’m not certain about these ratings yet. I will say that I favor substance over style, which is the main reason Duncan and Mikan are rated above Elgin and Erving. Both those forwards had amazing accomplishments and an historical impact on the game they played, so I rank them both very high. Still that doesn’t overcome the equally great accomplishments and proven success of Duncan.

When I tried to think of a good way to summarize the career of Tim Duncan, I became captivated with a particular analogy. I believe Tim Duncan is the Derek Jeter of basketball. His individual value doesn’t look great in comparison to historic greats, and he played after expansion in a less talented era. His team success could largely be attributed to the incredible organization he had backing him, and the richness of support he had beside teammates. With all that said he still stood out among the rest and won at the highest levels. Most of his value comes through things that are hard to measure, like leadership, consistency, and various intangibles. His legacy won’t be made up of great images or a media friendly personality, but it will be of championships and greatness.

The Cap'n is a basketball fan

This post is clearly a degenerative imitation of Bill Simmons "The Sports Guy", who writes an annual column about the trade values of NBA players. I began writing this before he published his on Espn.com's Page 2. I recommend anyone truly interested in the NBA go ahead and read that. It will be helpful for comparison's sake, and you'll also get to see how much I copied everything about his rankings even the writing style

NBA Trade Values- 2005 Off-season

Now that the NBA has crowned its most recent champions – Congratulations to the Spurs and all of San Antonio by the way- it’s time to start thinking about the basketball hot stove. Judging from the potential free agent market it looks as though this off-season will be substantially quieter than last year. If you are looking ahead to the next year for your franchise (and there’s always a next year for every team, yes, even the Clippers) don’t expect to make a Suns or Bulls type leap based on signing major talent alone. So if we’re playing fantasy GM with the whole NBA you have to get some judgment of how all the players stack up against each other. So in the absence of anyone else’s authoritative opinion I have created my own list of the top 50 players based on their comparative trade value.

Before we go into the ratings we have to cover the rules. First, since I haven’t the time or the finesse to sort out just those players currently in contract from those who will enter the free agent market, I will simply treat them all as potential trades. Imagine that when Commissioner Stern walked out of the effective bargaining agreement he said “All teams’ rosters are frozen as of this date and from here on out, any two teams can swap one player for another straight-up with no cap ramifications.” Second, degrees matter. Some teams would never surrender the players at the top of this list even if the offer is for someone who could be better. Example, if someone proposed Kobe Bryant for Kevin Garnett straight up neither team would actually take that offer, but Minnesota would have to say “Dang as much as we want to we’ll have to pass on Kobe” while the Lakers will say “Kobe for KG, we’d be insane to accept that.” See, little degrees like that mean a lot for separating out the top of the list. Conversely some of the players are so close to each other on the bottom and middle of the list that they could be traded for each other in our imaginary league, but one of the teams could still feel a little happier for the change. Example, the proposed swap between Detroit and Philadelphia goes through, Rip Hamilton and Chris Webber trade places. The difference was that it took Philly all of five minutes thought to part with C-Dub while Detroit probably spent a few days shopping Rip around to see if they could get a better offer. Third, in instances where a player is well known to be underpriced or overpriced in his current contract, that will raise or lower his value respectively, but that tends to be a tie breaker rather than a major issue. Fourth, you have to consider the age of the player. Do you want Jason Kidd for five years, or Ben Gordon for ten. Finally and most importantly, this is not about who’s the better player, or who’s more dominant, or who an organization is loyal to. In my mind all front office decisions boil down to two points 1) Who’s going to win us the most games and titles? and equally important is 2) Who’s going to earn us the most money? So I made those my standards and followed the trades wherever logic took me.

And now the ratings in descending order (i.e. the player wouldn’t be traded for each player listed before him but would be traded for each player listed after him)…


Category F: Either way the phone’s not ringing

50. Grant Hill- Back in 1998 you would have said he had fallen significantly to reach this point, so it’s sad to note that this is actually quite a leap for him. He’s still a real asset to the Magic in term of revenue, and he did prove to have a positive impact on the team’s record when he played. So they wouldn’t trade Grant for just any old journeyman, bench stiff, or Atlanta Hawk. That having been said, I can see them giving up Hill for any player who has promise and some record for living up to that promise, which everyone below on this list has.

49. Jamal Magloire- I know he hasn’t been very productive, and it’s hard to believe that anyone would value him, but he is honestly New Orleans’ best player anymore. If they give him up they become the Bobcats minus the excuses. Essentially the Hornets will hold on to him unless another GM partakes of a little too much Bourbon Street action and offers them a solid player. Just like Hill, no one who currently has him wants to give him away, but no one who doesn’t have him is really interested.

Category E: Building blocks

48. Kirk Hinrich- On the Baby Bulls, he’s the leading scorer and a real on-court leader, on a contending team he’s a solid seventh man and good fourth option. Not exactly a glowing recommendation, but it has done enough to earn the attention of some. He may have officially supplanted Eddy Curry as “the closets thing the Bulls have to a veteran”, I’m still checking into that. In any case he can’t be any higher on this list when every other player is at worst a good sixth man or reliable third option.

47. Pau Gasol- I suppose you could credit the coaching, but the Memphis players have to be a least a little responsible for making the playoffs two years in a row while seated in the toughest division in basketball. Still he’s a defensive weak spot until he orders those “Dirk Nowitiski: How to Become a Tough European Player” instructional tapes.

46. Reggie Evans- Somewhere beneath Ray Allen’s career year, someone noticed that this guy was a key component of Seattle’s expectation defying season.

45. Jeff Foster- I may be overrating this guy, just because I love the nickname “Bananas Foster.” But c’mon doesn’t the Pacers’ entire season post-brawl prove that the every team member except Artest and O’Neal were underrated?

44. Chris Bosh- I have long been of the opinion that his value has been underappreciated, in the same rookie class as Wade, ‘Melo, and LBJ. I realize that hurts him on the market, but he’s a commodity to be watched if only because some clever team could clear a ton of cap and useless contracts on the Raptors in exchange for this promising sophmore.
While we’re on the subject of the sorry state of Toronto, and I won’t directly revisit it at any other point on this list, I just had to take a shot at Bob Babcock. I can’t help but think of him as the Elmer Fudd of the NBA and every other GM as Bugs Bunny. He must have made a bet with the Clippers ownership that he could put together a worse team than they could. He has to be doing this stuff on purpose.

43. Andre Kirilenko- He should be a franchise player for the Jazz, instead it looks like he’ll just become the next designated defender for somebody. Still, as Bruce Bowen proved you can get a lot out of a player with combination clampdown defense and robo-rebounding skills, especially if he’s a reliable scorer too. Of course Bowen has proven it and AK-47 only promises it so, he stays a building block for now.

42. Brad Miller- Yeah, sure it looks like the post-Webber Kings aren’t going to be nearly the title contenders they used to be, but aside from durability issues, Miller is a reliable big man who really stepped it up at the end of the season. I can think of about 13 teams in the Eastern Conference who would love to have that.

41. Richard Jefferson- Theoretically he could be much higher, but I have to deduct points for 1) playing his whole career with the best “makes his teammates better" player of the post-MJ era, and 2) his major injury clearly affected his mental toughness, and his ability to recover from this may be a serious question for GM’s. I do think his dedication to come back and get swept in the playoff does bode well. Also factor in that since his rookie season he has played more games and more minutes in each season than someone like, oh, let’s say, Shaq has played in any season since ’94. I’m not calling him an iron man, I’m just saying he may disprove that “Pac-10 players are soft” superstition.

40. Lamar Odom- The Lakers must realize that he is their only weapon after Kobe. So depending if they’re seriously in the “let’s rebuild for a championship” mode or the “we’ve decided to self-destruct for half a decade a la the Bulls after Jordan” mode, they can either treat him right and groom him for success, or dump him on the Trailblazers for more useless draft picks. Either way he can get them something they want.

39. Chris Webber- I know he lives his life under a cloud and he threw his latest franchise leader under a bus, like five minutes after getting eliminated in the playoffs, but hear me out. Philly will want to hold on to Webber unless they get a sweet deal. In the regular season his is good enough to draw some of the pressure away from the always overburdened and overgaurded AI, and Iverson’s health is essential to playoff success. The only problem is that only a few teams would be desperate enough to give up anything of value for this albatross.
P.S. In honor of Iverson being the Answer, I think Webber should officially be dubbed the Problem. For as much as the first is able to overcome staggering odds to achieve inspiring success, the second is capable of wrenching a heartbreaking loss from the clutches of victory.
P.S.S. Why hasn’t anyone ever tried offering Webber a contract where he earns all his cash and incentives in the regular season, then have a loophole saying they can cut him from their playoff roster and not lose the option to renew? I’m not kidding I think this is a sure way to secure home court for the playoffs, and then ensuring you only lose to better teams instead of whatever grudge some higher power seems to have with C-Dub.

38. Rip Hamilton- He’s a great scorer, and a solid team player, and a major element of the Piston’s two runs at a title, yes, that is all true. However, do you really think Detroit couldn’t find someone just as reliable from within twelve feet, who doesn’t go on headache inducing draughts in big games? Besides, he’s already one Dikembe Mutombo elbow away from the end of his career. The Pistons like him, but they won’t bet the farm on him.

37. Antoine Walker- I think he’ll keep NBA statisticians awake long into the night for years after he retires. I read a piece showing how his shooting woes should, in theory, kill his team. Somehow when he’s in green and white he’s just a solid winner. I say the Celtics are too scared of the Curse of the ‘Toine to just give him up again.

36. Peja Stojakovic- I doubt if he’ll ever create his own shot or improve the play of his teammates, but the Kings do love their Diet Kobe, and plenty of others want a taste.

35. Elton Brand- I almost want to label him as a full fledged franchise guy, simply because he’s talented and entertaining enough to sell tickets, and also complacent enough to play for the worst run franchise in basketball. His stats are good, and those who watch him play say he’s up there in terms of talent and ability. The two things dragging him down to this point are that no other franchise would seriously put their future on his shoulders, and no one can be called a franchise player for the Clippers. It’s one of those catch-22’s. The more valuable you are to the Clipps the more likely they are to trade you.

34. Baron Davis- After what he did to close out the season the Warriors desperately want to retain him, and other teams are giving him some serious thought. Which probably means one way or another, he doesn’t play more that 35 games next season.

33. Bruce Bowen- He’s become a desirable commodity on the market. I can see any other team dealing him away for oh, I don’t know, a high-schooler with “upside”, or whatever else passes for a common sense move in the current NBA. The Spurs are different though. With, their style of play they don’t win a title this year without some one who could shut down the Ray Allens and Rip Hamiltons of the league; they know that. Also can you see anyone at the Spurs really splitting up their 7-man rotation?

32. Tony Parker- You could switch him with B2, because I think they have equal market value and value to the Spurs. I give the Frenchman the nod, because there’s more demand for quality point guards. He would rank much higher on the list if he wasn’t less famous than his girlfriend, and hadn’t been tilting on the edge of premature career collapse for the second half of the season.

Category D: Borderline Franchise Guys

31. Emeka Okafor- I actually was surprised to rank him this low. In theory he’s the ultimate untouchable franchise guy, since he lead his team in scoring, is so far the face of the franchise, and has already won Rookie of the Year to give the Bobcats a little street cred. He has proven championship credentials, and was the locker room leader on a team that seriously defied expectations. Despite all that I ultimately come back to the fact that the Bobcats are so new that they could find a much more attractive franchise guy either in the next draft, or in a good trade. Carolina just has too many options to label any player as untouchable, but Okafor’s probably the closest thing they have.

30. Kenyon Martin- If I had to choose one power forward for the next ten years, I think K-Mart is a close second choice behind the obvious top dawg. He showed the same toughness with the Nuggets, that he made his name with in New Jersey, but his contract is way overpriced for anyone to want him that bad.

29. Michael Redd- What does it mean that the second most valuable free agent this year isn’t even in the top 25 most valuable players in the league? He’s good sure, and anyone who gets him will hold on tight, but I don’t know if he’s a for sure franchise player.

28. Steve Francis- The Magic can’t afford to lose him, and no other team could build a team around him alone. I think some of his rep is unearned, I mean he hasn’t killed a coach’s career the last few months, and he shows up every game, and he has true All-Star level game.

27. Joe Johnson- He gets seriously bumped up this list for halo effect from the other Suns, I know everyone else was impressed with his impact in the post-season, but I never saw the kind of production in his regular season numbers you expect in a must have guy.

26. Paul Pierce- He’ll be lucky if he makes this list next year, or maybe not since the only way he’ll still be some team’s franchise player is if he gets traded to a bad team.

25. Rasheed Wallace- His presence bumped the Pistons up from contenders to favorites in the title chase for the next few years. During the playoffs you just knew if he came to life on the offensive end the other team didn’t have a prayer. It’s just Detroit’s good fortune that he’s only their third most valuable player (which by the way is a sure sign Joe Dumars will inevitably capsize the franchise when he reaches to get value by trading ‘Sheed). I could even see him ranked a little higher if I didn’t still have that lingering doubt that someday somehow he was going to pull off a stunt that would go right onto NBA TV’s “Stupidest On Court Moments” gag reel.

24. Jason Kidd- It’s easy to say that the Nets want to dump his contract, but they would still have two other players with max money on their roster, and neither have had nearly the impact of Kidd. You just don’t lose with him on your court. If he can put together two more healthy years, than I think New Jersey will remain a threat in the East. But he’s already on the downside of his career.

23. Ben Wallace- I don’t know how you define dominance, but for me it’s the quality of a player to alter the dynamics of the game simply by his presence. That’s why I think Big Ben could be the most dominant player right now. Not every game, but sometimes, when he’s motivated and when he gets his head on straight. Its important to note that I don’t mean just defensively. If he can turn on his offense, then he puts the fear of Stern into his opponents, and everything opens up for his team. If someone had treated him seriously from the beginning of his career he could have been the next Bill Russell. Now I think he has to settle with being the next Walt Bellamy.

22. Ray Allen- The Ray Gun is most definitely the most desirable free agent, but he’s also the hardest to rate. He can have a huge impact on any game in which he plays, but he seems to be a little one dimensional. While every team wants a go-to point maker, he probably isn’t worth whatever money he’ll draw. Then again he does come with Dean Oliver’s seal of approval. I tell you what, if he has another year like this, I’ll bump him up to the top ten on next year’s list.

21. Steve Nash- I would value any defending MVP at a much higher level than the leagues GM’s will value Nash. His skills may be irreplaceable, but everyone will value other skill sets above his, which is sad because this league needs to encourage more exciting playmakers like our lovable Canadian.

Group C: Franchise Players

20. Robert Horry- Big Game Rob has played himself into the pages of NBA history, and the high end of this list. He’s actually the exception, in that I label him as having the same value as a player on which a franchise could plan its future, even though he’s too late in his career and not a strong enough overall player to be The Man on any team. The simple fact is he plays the most valuable role in basketball, and he is the best there is at the game right now. Consider the following items:
1) Of the four factors Dean Oliver identifies as critcal to the success of a basketball team, the most important is reliable shooting, especially in close games or in leagues with a high level of parity.
2) Since American basketball has become increasingly focused on “athletes” who focus most of their talent on “to the basket” type skills, specialist shooters are becoming an increasing rarity in the NBA. Something we saw demonstrated with sad certainty in the 2004 Olympics.
3) In the last twelve years (also known as a full 20% of NBA history) 11 of the twelve NBA champions have had either famed and now retired shooting specialist Steve Kerr or Robert Horry on their roster. Horry alone played on half of the teams over that stretch. Can you name any other player who’s presence on your roster says you have a 50% chance of winning the championship.
4) As of the end of this season, with Reggie Miller’s retirement and Horry adding his Finals Game 5 heroics to his resume. No one is a better clutch player in the league. NO ONE.
5) Aside from age, I cannot think of one disadvantage Horry has. He has had great chemistry on all sorts of teams, including the Soap Oprah Shaq and Kobe Lakers. He plays hurt. He’s rarely seriously injured. He has a calming presence in pressure moments on big games. He should be the single most desirable player, outside of the super stars.
6) He will never cost you the top dollars a super star will, but he will get you comparable results. If the GM’s of the league held a all inclusive draft, he would definitely go in the top ten.
Add all those up, and it says to me he’s a must have player. If only for one or two years, any team with a solid starting line-up would die to have him, and the shot at a title he brings.
An interesting debate started during the Finals about whether or not Horry belonged in the Hall of Fame. I think the evidence is clearly in Horry’s favor, but the debate was complicated, by a couple of wrinkles. First, there is no NBA hall of fame, or even a professional basketball hall of fame, The Basketball Hall of Fame is an all inclusive hall honoring player of both genders from around the world of both pro and amateur levels. This leads to the meaning of being a Hall of Famer so diluted, that no basketball fan can clearly define it any more. I don’t even think that the selection committees have a firm idea, which would explain why it seems easier for women’s college coaches to get in than memorable NBA stars. Second, in discussing the all-time greats of the NBA the arguments rarely recognize role players. Baseball and football and even hockey have much more differentiation between the demands of different players. Football fans seem to appreciate why a great lineman is as hall worthy as a great quarterback. Baseball’s hall honors the defensive specialist and relief aces right there with the great hitters. But, since all basketball players have the same basic purpose, they all get judged by the same standards, which isn’t always fair. It seems as if most basketball fans think you have to be an MVP type player to be enshrined. I like to reference the great Bill James’ proposed standards for the baseball hall of fame, where he creates different definitions for what makes a Hall of Fame player. With Horry, he qualifies on two counts. First, you could argue he is among the greatest clutch shooters of all time and during his career was only ever overshadowed by super stars. Second, he was a vital element on multiple championship teams. To me the Hall of Fame was meant to honor the players who made important contributions to their team or their league, but who may not have been an MVP, or flashy all-star. We don’t need a plaque in Cooperstown to remember who Babe Ruth was, but we might not remember Hank Greenberg without the Hall. In my opinion Robert Horry is a dead lock for the Hall of Fame. He’s the kind of player that should be honored in posterity. I just hope the voters agree.

19. Manu Ginobli- I know he’s older than you’d like your central star to be, but just look at how he can energize his teams. He is undeniably the kind of player that can turn lesser talent into a serious contender. So, the Spurs may get some team to give up one of the players listed below, just to get at the Argentinean’s intangibles.

18. Carmelo Anthony- Some people think he’s a disappointment already, because he didn’t have an instant Bird and Magic type impact. The thing is, I think he has. He has gotten to the playoffs two more times than LeBron James has, and has had better success against the West powerhouses than D-Wade. He may have some questions about his mental toughness, and off-court stability, but I think Coach Karl came into his life early enough, that, if those two stay together for a while, ‘Melo can still get on the right track. Any team with him on their roster will hold on to him for the sake of their future, even if he may not have the proven success of Dwayne, or the piggy bank quality of King James.

17. Jermaine O’Neal- He turned himself into a model player this season. When you combine the way he carried himself post brawl with his amazing on-court leadership and dedication and his already substantial talent and prowess, you have exactly the kind of player the Pacers will lean on to build their post-Reggie franchise into greatness.

16. Gilbert Arenas- He could easily bottom out in a big hurry and turn into just another head case with untapped potential, which is a shame, because he was finally learning how to really play basketball. The Wizards need him to be their future in a big way, but they have to watch out that an established team that can afford the risk, doesn’t outbid them the next time his contract is up.

15. Mike Bibby- He leads all other point guard’s in the league because he’s proven he can carry a team and he still has enough time and flexibility in him that he could still develop a multi-year project team like the Grizzlies into the real deal.

14. Ben Gordon- Oh man, once he learns how to play that way for thirty or more minutes, he’s going to become the most feared assassin in the NBA. There is no way his career doesn’t become something great.

Category B: Nearly Untouchables

13. Chauncy Billups- In case there was any doubt about who the Most Valuable Piston was, I think the NBA Finals proved it. No one else on Detroit’s roster seems able to control the tempo, create their own shot, change the momentum of a game, or make a big play without him on the court. Joe Dumars knows if he lets go of Billups he lets go of any chance of building a Pistons dynasty with the pieces he has left. I would rate him higher, but I’m a little worried, that like all the other Pistons he wouldn’t work in any other team’s chemistry.

12. Amare Stoudemire- I’m a little tired of the pundits going crazy about him. Sure he looks like he could be the most devastating offensive force in the NBA today. But come on, where was this dominance before Steve Nash shows up. I don’t believe he can make that kind of difference without a good supporting cast. The Suns are going to keep designing the offense to feed into his talents and his market value is going to keep rising, until all some other team makes some ridiculous offer for a player that will totally implode the second the world stops pampering him. Still, this list is more about perceived value than actual impact, so he has to be high up. I just want to warn whoever signs him after the Suns. You were probably promised the second coming of Wilt Chamberlain or something, but what you really got was a load of “upside” who’ value does a nose dive once he goes more than three feet from the basket. (I was considering going into a huge rant about “upside” here, but I’ve decided to let it rest at this: did anyone ever need to be reminded of MJ, Magic, or Bird’s upside? So then how can it mean so much?)

11. Allen Iverson- Even if I accept that his career is nearly over and he never delivered, he still ranks this high. Philly has nothing, without him. No wins, no ticket sales, nothing.

10. Vince Carter- Obviously his trade value shot through the roof with his performance after coming to New Jersey. I don’t attribute that to his level of play as much as the terrible passive aggressive mean streak he showed. His productivity number wise was great, but remember he was playing with Mr. I-Make-My-Teammates-Look-Way-Better-Than-They-Actually-Are, Jason Kidd. Not only was Kidd naturally going to do more for Vince than any of his old Raptor teammates, but he also was coming back from injury himself and desperate to make the playoffs. Nothing was going to stop Carter from playing monster ball after the All-Star break.
Sidebar- What’s Vince Carter’s new nickname? I might have been one of the few people south of the 49th parallel to like Air Canada, so I doubt Air Jersey will work out. If anyone has suggestions, I want to hear them.
The level of effort that Vince displayed once he was in a Nets jersey was freakish. I just assumed he lacked mental toughness, competitiveness, and ambition. In other words, I thought he was destined for the Clippers. It turns out he actually did lack motivation. I don’t know what it was he needed to get him going. It could have been he needed to live in the States, or he needed a competent front office, or another All-Star to relieve the pressure off his back. In any case I think this might have been one of the best acts of passive aggressive revenge in sports history (it still lags well behind the top pick Curse of the Bambino). He not only proved to the Toronto fans and front office that he really was a great player, and embarrassed them for ever buying a ticket to watch him play at half speed. He also set up a horrible situation for Toronto. When the last spot in the playoffs came down to the Nets and Cavaliers, it meant that the only way the Raptors could try to keep him out of the playoffs was to lie down to the Cavs on the last game of the season after they had finally gotten some sense of their identity back. That was a real gut blow to the city, which he made worse by getting into the playoffs anyway. I figure this has to rate at least 3.5 on Bill Simmons Vengeance Skill (which can be found on Espn.com’s Page 2).

9. Tracy McGrady- Kobe will have a real rival in the West from here on out. I realize he did more for the Rockets this year than Yao, which has earned him such a high spot. I give the edge to Yao though, because he has the better image (especially internationall) and has a few more years in him. If you want to flip their positions on this list you can go ahead. I just like someone who hasn’t developed yet, over someone who still has to overcome a reputation of underachievement.

8. Dirk Nowitski- Tough European + Mad Shooting Skills + Terrific Marketability + Consistent Contender = A must have for any team without a true untouchable

7. Yao Ming- As the NBA becomes an increasingly international entity, you can bet that Commissioner Stern will start transforming Yao into the biggest media sensation since Jordan. I really mean it. If Vegas offered odds on who the next Jordan would be (at least in terms of being the face of the NBA) I would make a ton of money off this. I have no doubt that Yao can carry a team on his back, I’m watching out to see if he can carry this whole misbegotten league into the Global Basketball Era.


Category A: The Untouchables

6. Dwayne Wade- The Heat would never give up D-Wade, never, ever, ever. But they wouldn’t give up Shaq either. In terms of impact on the game they’re pretty much equal, with Shaq being more dominant in the regular season, and Wade taking over as the impact guy in the playoffs. Future value is also a wash. While Shaq is definitely on the rather steep downside of his career, he’s got many more years in him before he becomes less valuable than the average center. Dwayne theoretically has many years in front of him, but shouldn’t we all be more cautious about him with the long term effects of his rib injury still unclear. So in the best debate on this list I have to rate Shaq higher simply because he’ll sell more tickets and merchandise.

5. Kevin Garnett- He has yet to disprove the widely reported theory that he can never be the best player on a great team. If his presence alone can’t guarantee you a place in the playoffs then he’s only ever going to be about as valuable as Charles Barkley. Still the opinion of anyone who ever has to play against him is that by himself he can destroy a team on any given night. I guess that just means that Sir Charles could have owned this league if he played today.

4. Kobe Bryant- I propose a two point test as to his trade value 1) Can you name three players in the league with more proven talent? 2) Can you name three players in the league who are better known? I think the answer for both of those questions is a solid no. In addition you have to put him pretty high up, because from the second Shaq left, L.A. was pretty much stuck with Kobe. Jerry Buss would become the laughingstock of the league and tick off half his fan base the instant he admitted he picked the wrong pony. Sink or swim, the Lakers have to entrust their future to Kobe. I do have to deduct some points for being a serious threat to ruin any franchise he lands on, and for his still unresolved image problems. I don’t think that actually changed his placement, because he’s still more valuable than those listed above him, and he doesn’t have much of a chance of topping out those listed below.

3. LeBron James- I’m a little tired of excuses. LeBron, you should be the number one player on this list from here until you retire no matter where you play. Get into the playoffs or the honeymoon is over.

2. Shaquille O’Neal- This is an official warning: from here on out anyone who calls Shaq the most dominating anything, will receive a punch in the kidneys from me. Shaq’s reign is over. He may still be highly valuable and the most marketable player in the league. For that I honor him with the number two rating. The most dominant title belongs to the number one player . . .

The Man

1. Tim Duncan- I could get really picky that Manu deserved to be the Finals MVP, but the fact remains that Timmy has won three titles and three finals MVP’s to match. That’s as many as Shaq and Magic, and more than everyone else save Jordan. Tim’s won championships before and after Shaq and Kobe’s three-peat. He was great before they took over, and he’s since out performed and outlasted that Lakers min-dynasty. It’ starting to look to me like Shaq took advantage of a narrow window of opportunity and some special circumstances to claim his success, while Tim Duncan is an absolute championship player. Throw in the fact that Duncan may be smarter than any other player, a better leader, and never disrupts the team’s chemistry, and I have to declare that Tim Duncan has been the best player of the post-MJ era. Whatever mojo San Antonio has keeping him there, they better pray it never wears out. It’s Duncan’s league, we’re just watching it.