The Capn's Arbitrary Bowl Prediction Method Part 1

Arbitrary Bowl Prediction Method (Supplied by Music)

Everyone has some hobby or interest of which they prefer others, even close personal friends, never know. These range from our silly/embarrassing pastimes, like shrinky dinks, to our borderline pathological fixations, such as that collection of memorabilia from Days of Our Lives. One way or another we know that if the public discovered our hidden hobbies our street cred would plummet. For my part, I have a long running interest in the topic of gambling. To be sure, I have never wagered money on any sporting event, game of chance, or other proposition; I’m far too risk adverse for that. I enjoy thinking about things like how point-spreads are drawn up or which casino game favors the player over the house. It’s all thought experiments for me. Despite my purely intellectual interest, I still try to keep it on the down low, because I don’t want to look like a shifty degenerate. Remember I’m trying to educate our nation’s youth as a profession. I don’t think having a reputation as my local school district’s Jimmy the Greek would help me earn the trust of students and their parents.

My interest in the subject continuous though. One of the most fascinating topics in the realm of gambling is the sports handicapper. This person helps the mass amounts of desperate sports gamblers, by providing them with special insight into sporting events, often for a charge. These “professionals” of the gambling world often have success stories they can point to, but the truth is all gambling requires some losing, and eventually everyone regress to a .500 winning percentage. For me all methods of handicapping games serve one purpose: the information is to help you to rationalize placing a large bet. Most people are unwilling to gamble unless they have some assurance that they aren’t just throwing their money away, so they turn to handicappers to give them a reason to make the wager. Except the truth is that at least half the bets you make will be lost money.

Experts who have studied gambling often advise that there are only two “wining” strategies to gambling –and here “winning” means psychologically healthy and not likely to lead you down a path to utter financial ruin. You can either allocate a limited amount of money and keep making bets, risking only money either previously allocated to betting or money earned off of old bets, until you’ve used it all up. You won’t ever earn money doing this, but the odds of actually earning money on bets in the long haul are exceedingly slim anyways. At least this strategy allows you to enjoy the thrill of gambling as long as the probabilities allow. The other strategy is to acknowledge that you will finish roughly at break even and select only a limited amount of bets to make. If you win a little, great, if you lose a little, tough, either way you won’t ever have risked your whole future on some trivial wager.

For some people out there, though they feel compelled to gamble and they’re just looking for an excuse. These are the people handicappers assist. I have decided to offer my own handicapping strategy, to be employed for the first time this college football bowl season. I will predict the winners and final scores, based on a comparison of the school’s fight songs. These predictions are made before I see any Vegas spreads, so I want to be clear I’m not trying to actually make any predictions that could be useful to gamblers. The idea of this piece is to satirize the work of sport’s handicappers (because, trust me, any reason they give you to justify making a bet will be just as arbitrary as comparing fight songs.) Also for anyone who reads this who has an interest in gambling the psychologically healthy way, and does so through proper legal means, then I thought I could provide a sufficiently amusing method on which to base any wagers you may make. Hey, it should be funny to talk about at a New Year’s Eve party.

(One last note, the songs I judge these schools on may not be considered the definitive fight songs of their respective universities. I am merely working with whichever piece of music I could conveniently find online that was distinct to your school. This means that I threw out all the “Let’s Go Blue!” and “Hey! Song” cheers that are used by almost every marching band. If you are associated with a given school whose musical repertoire has bee misrepresented, then please correct my error in the comments section, and feel free to disregard my prediction for the game.)
In writing this piece I principally use the archives at these two websites:
http://www.1122productions.com/fightsongs/
http://www.fightmusic.com/index.html

So here are my college football bowl picks…

New OrleansSouthern Miss (6-5) vs. Arkansas State (6-5)
The Songs: It is only fitting in a bowl game featuring two nearly indistinguishably mediocre teams with identical barely winning 6-5 records that the two songs should be so similar. In fact I had to listen to them each twice to make sure they weren’t the same song with different lyrics. Both Arkansas State’s ominously titled “Loyalty Song” and Southern Mississippi’s “Southern On Top” – a title that is both rife with double entendre and cartographically wrong- are up-beat Sousa-esque marches so common to the 1930’s. When listening I tended to envision old British brass bands playing the songs instead of Southern-style marching bands, not a good sign. Still “Southern On Top” has a little bit more swing and flavor to it, so it will get a marginal edge.

The Game: I am anticipating a bit of a lackluster game, one of those fumble-filled, lazy-offense, “we have off-setting penalties on the play” kind of games. At some point midway into the second quarter the TV audience will begin to suspect that the players only managed to muster up the gumption to go 6-5 because they had hoped for a nice winter vacation someplace scenic. Unfortunately, they got Lafayette, Louisiana. I mean for cripes sakes it’s the New Orleans bowl, and they can’t even play it in New Orleans, so you just know the whole affair will be played under the shadow of one of the worst natural disasters in U.S. history. How exciting can that be?

The Prediction: Southern Miss-17 Arkansas State- 13


GMACUTEP (8-3) vs. Toledo (8-3)
The Songs:
The University of Texas-El Paso is cheered with a song called “Miners’ Fight”. I am uncertain whether it’s actually supposed to have that apostrophe, but I’m keeping it in because it makes me think that some West Texas school might actually have deep ties to the labor struggles of the early 20th century. Such thoughts amuse me. “Miners’ Fight” is rather boisterous and fun, with shades of a country-western influence. I can almost imagine it being in the soundtrack for a cowboy flick. Not a good cowboy movie mind you, but maybe some made for cable adaptation of a Lois L’Amour novel
Toledo’s “U of Toledo” is lacking in comparison. It has a certain energy that may get the student section out of their seat when the band marches into the Glass Bowl. However it sounds uncannily like a certain “Buckeye Battle Cry”. Perhaps I am reading too much into this, but it does seem likely that this minor titan of the MAC may be trying to leach off of the notoriety of their more famous in-state neighbor.

The Game: As I hear the vitality of both these songs I envision something of a minor shoot out, a fast paced game, but nothing outrageous. I predict one team will have a strong running attack and the other a good day in the air and neither defense doing much about it.

The Prediction: UTEP- 35 Toledo-28


Pioneer PureVision Las VegasBYU (6-5) vs. California (7-4)
The Songs: Brigham Young’s “Cougar Song” is a colorful little ditty with some apparent ragtime influences. I can see it working well at pep rallies, and coming out of a high school marching band. In the world of serious college football, though, it lacks a certain gravitas. It may make the fans sing, but it won’t intimidate any opponents.
California’s “Fight for California” is rather robust, with a full orchestral quality to it. It certainly sounds like a grown-up’s fight song. However I must deduct points for the lyrics. The first verse reads as follows-
Our sturdy Golden Bear is watching from the skyLooks down upon our colors fairAnd guards us from his lairOur banner Gold and BlueThe symbol on it tooMeans Fight! for CaliforniaFor California through and through.
The second verse does no better, beginning with “Stalwart girded for the fray”. This stilted language would stifle the enthusiasm of any crowd. I guess the Blue Boys on the Bay just had to prove they were as bright as their rivals from Stanford.

The Game: California has more talent and a better game plan which means it takes an early lead and seems to have the game well in hand. BYU refuses to give up though. With the plucky resilience of a shrilly barking puppy fighting a pit-bull, the Cougars begin to gain some leverage off of the mental mistakes and distracted play of an annoyed and frustrated opponent. Eventually the metaphorical stick up California’s metaphorical butt costs them, causing one of those fourth quarter momentum changes that turns the tide for BYU.

The Prediction: BYU- 24 California-21


San Diego County Credit Union PoinsettiaColorado State (6-5) vs. Navy (7-4)
The Songs: Colorado State brings a fight song that seems genuinely geared to starting fights. It has the classic tone of a good fight song; one that makes you grit your teeth and envision fisticuffs at midfield. The song is so tough it apparently doesn’t even need a title. My belly started to boil at the first strains of this song, a fight song with some hair on its chest.
The Midshipmen of the U.S. Naval Academy use “Anchors Aweigh” as their fight song. It has an unmistakable masculinity and confidence to it. Steady and straightforward, this is undeniably music to march to. However I have a hard time listening to it and not envisioning Gene Kelly and Frank Sinatra in sailor suits. The fact that the song reminds me more of archived new footage from World War II than touchdowns is great for a military academy, but not so much for a football team.

The Game: Navy’s fight song speaks of a ball-control oriented run game, a tactic that has apparently worked well enough to get them into a bowl. Colorado State plays in the same conference as Air Force, another service academy, so I’m sure they’re used to this. They CSU fight song makes me think of hard-hitting action and smash-mouth football. So I suppose this will be a real slug match. In the end Navy’s song gave me a sense of some kind of offense strategy, whereas Colorado State could only inspire me to think of overly aggressive linesmen.

The Prediction: Navy-14 CSU-13


Fort WorthKansas (6-5) vs. Houston (6-5)
The Songs:
Does Kansas really have a fight song? I don’t mean to be flippant, but none of the music I could find from the Marching Jayhawks really suggested that “Go! Fight! Win!” spirit typically evoked by a school’s fight song. Their “I’m a Jayhawk” cheer is an unmitigated unapologetic rag tune, whose lyrics are one long comparison to other schools in the Big 12 conference. The most famous “song” associated with the school is really just a chant, their oddly Gregorian “Rock Chalk, Jayhawk, K-U”. It made my skin crawl but it didn’t inspire me very much. Official sources indicate that “Fighting Jayhawk” is the school’s official song fight song, and I must say, it’s something of a disappointment. After a bright fanfare to open, it reduces into a plodding quasi-march. If the band tried to play this in a parade they’d slow the whole affair to a snail’s pace and the Shriners would beep their tiny horns impatiently at them as they idled behind in their miniature traffic jam. Over all I found a plethora of music, but none of it what you’d expect from a fight song. Actually I found that oddly inspiring in itself for some strange reason.
The University of Houston likes to keep it simple. They have one (1) fight song, and it is clearly meant to be a fight song. The plainly titled “Cougar Fight Song” gets your adrenaline pumping and seems perfect for launching the players into a fast paced attack. Most of this affect comes from the very up-tempo battery in the background. The snare drums rapidly drill out so many notes over the top of the band that it makes me question the legality of whatever stimulant they are using. I like the passion, but I cannot help but question the stability of a program whose fight song borders so closely on fervor.

The Game: In a game where both teams show significant weakness –for Houston its ball control, for Kansas its offense in general- I envision the game winning play being one of those quirky little plays. The kind that sends the TV broadcast team back to the replay about a half dozen times. The kind of play that makes people openly question whether what the players did is covered by the rulebook. And if it is should it be? Something about the Kansas’s refusal to have a proper fight song makes me think they win and probably on a special teams play.

The Prediction: Kansas-19 Houston-13


Sheraton HawaiiNevada (8-3) vs. UCF (8-4)
The Songs:
Nevada’s song doesn’t bring much to the table. The song consists of a melody seemingly played by every brass instrument in the state, and a drum line smashing out sixteenth notes. I can’t even tell if they have woodwinds. Then again maybe that’s a good thing since I’ve never been such a fan of woodwinds. I think I may start a petition to see if they’ll change their fight song to “Viva Las Vegas”. Then again, maybe UNLV already has dibs on that one.
Central Florida, conversely, tries to have everything at once. Each instrument in their band seemed like it was trying to play a different song louder than the musicians around them. It has sections that sound like a Hollywood fanfare, a la USC’s “Tribute to Troy”, patches that sound like an old back east school song, and little bits that try to be a march. It sounds like a fight song drafted by a committee (And not a good kind of committee either. I’m talking about the kind of committee you read about in Ayn Rand novels. These are the kind of committee who want to ruthlessly destroy individual identity and who seem intent to make bad things happen, the kind of committee that is full of one dimensional characters, who expound in awkward dialogue and who wear their simplistic motivations on their sleeve when not just saying them out loud. I’m sorry my inner book critic seems to have taken us on a bit of a tangent). Essentially, it’s a song with an attention span problem and an inability to make up its mind.

The Game: While the Golden Knights of UCF should win this easily, I see them playing a very unfocused and distracted game. There head just isn’t in it and neither is there heart. After all, the team is comprised of young men, many of whom are playing in their first bowl game, even more of whom are taking their first trip to Hawai’i. I know the same could be said of Nevada’s team (except it really couldn’t because Nevada plays in the same conference as Hawai’i which means there players have likely been to the islands before), but Nevada’s song screams focus and discipline. This game won’t even be close.

The Prediction: Nevada-35 UCF-17


Motor CityMemphis (6-5) vs. Akron (7-5)
The Songs:
Memphis has a loud proud sound, perfect for a Southern marching band. Their fight song is ideal for leading a parade, full of warmth and good cheer. I had kind of hoped for something a little more Dixieland. It is the University of Memphis, isn’t? Where’s that Beale Street influence? It doesn’t have to be bluesy, just bring a little more swing. In the absence of that I’d like something to make me clap my hands and stomp my feet. To be sure, Memphis has a good fight song, I just wanted more.
Akron has such stereotypical fight song it’s almost comical. I found myself tapping my feel in rhythm with the strident horns and steady drums of “Akron Blue and Gold” for a team whose moniker is the Zips and whose mascot is a kangaroo (for reasons I don’t think any of us can fathom) they sure have a big league swagger to their song. (Aside: U of Akron plays its football games in the Akron Rubber Bowl, which it boasts is tied for the largest stadium in the MAC conference and second largest college football stadium in the state of Ohio. Just for perspective’s sake let’s compare. The largest stadium in the state –and not just college, I mean pro-football, hockey, basketball, this has greater capacity by far than any other venue for human gathering in the entire state- is Ohio Stadium or “The Horseshoe” of The Ohio State University. The Rubber Bowl seats 31,000; the ‘Shoe seats 102,000. I think that nicely illustrates the difference between mid-major college football and big time college football. Anyways…) I don’t know if I’ll ever be intimidated by anything from the Rubber Capital of the U.S., but this fight song has certainly set itself apart.

The Game: The Memphis Tigers and Akron Zips both sound like their very capable on offense and prefer an up-tempt game. They both will make some serious mistakes, but since they’ll be equally haphazard in their success, I don’t think either team will use this to their advantage. This should be a classic “light on the defense” bowl game shootout that’s fun to watch. Detroit’s weather won’t even be a factor since the game will be played indoors.

The Prediction: Akron-40 Memphis-38


Champs SportsClemson (7-4) vs. Colorado (7-5)
The Songs:
This is a deceptively tough match-up of two very good songs hidden down here in a lower tier bowl. Clemson’s “Tiger Rag” is classic Southern football fight music. It is a combustible mixture of high energy and happy spirits. This song makes me want to dance in the aisles of the bleachers. I can easily envision thousands of fans shaking their groove things to this. If I heard the “Tiger Rag” when I took the field, then I’d feel pretty confident I could win the game.
Colorado’s “Fight CU” is just as strong in the opposite direction. It harkens back to gridiron memories of black and white footage you see on ESPN Classic. If I just went by the song alone I would swear to you Colorado has been a dominant football team for the last eighty years. From a school spirit perspective this is a top tier fight song, but the music seems a little hollow, and in a match-up this tough that’ll cost you.

The Game: This promises to be a highly entertaining and hard fought game. It is Clemson’s spirit against Colorado’s might. It’s passion versus discipline. It’s jubilation against grit. I predict it will take not just lots of great plays from both teams, but extra game time to settle this one.

The Prediction: Clemson- 30 Colorado- 27 OT


InsightArizona State (6-5) vs. Rutgers (7-4)
The Songs:
One powerful image filled my head as a listened to the Sun Devil Marching band play “Maroon and Gold”. My mind was drawn to a memory of a Sergio Leone spaghetti western where the audience watches the camera cut between extreme close ups of a sweaty bandito as the annoying buzz of a fly drones on in the background. After just a few seconds of this the audience grows restless “Why doesn’t some one swat that fly already” we think. Then relief, the fly zips into frame perches itself upon a particularly grimy patch of perspiring flesh, and the bandito’s hand sweeps down to squash the pest. BUT NO! The fly escapes. There are two reasons I find myself thinking about this as the fight song of a proud academic institution plays. First, there is a definite drone to the woodwind parts in “Maroon and Gold”. Second, nothing defines the state of Arizona more for me then sweaty banditos.
The pride of New Jersey Rutgers Marching Band turns in a classic back East style fight song in “The Bells Must Ring”. I love the certainty of the title, it speaks of confidence. The song itself is vigorous and peppy, perfect for cheerleaders in sweater sets. I also grinned when the band broke into a chant. I have a soft spot for chants and inexplicable lyrics like “Red team upstream” only endear me further.

The Game: Both teams come in full of confidence and determination. I even imagine Rutgers takes an early lead and holds it for a time, but then that pesky Arizona State offense refuses to go away. Much like the aforementioned fly, I envision a dink-and-dunk spread style offense, that seems so easy to smack it veritably tempts you to take a swing, except it also leaps away unscathed. The second half becomes increasingly frustrating for Rutgers until a fourth quarter meltdown seals the deal.

The Prediction: Arizona State- 27 Rutgers- 17


MPC ComputersBoise State (9-3) vs. Boston College (8-3)
The Songs:
Boise State’s marching band goes by the moniker “The Blue Thunder”. From the sound of their fight song it sounds like it should be “The Blue Out of Tune Bass Drum Pounding Out Quarter Notes and Uninspired Trumpet Section” This was a very weak fight song that completely failed to rouse any part of me (and I should add the cockles of my heart have been medically determined to be easily roused). Thankfully it is also a quick song, so the fans don’t have to suffer much.
The song “For Boston” speaks of old time college campus and old time football. The Screaming Eagles Marching Band -who don’t seem to scream much, though they do sing a fairly impressive version of the fight song in question- have a nice full sound. The whole thing is just too Rites of Autumn to pass up.

The Game: The Boise State team takes the field overconfident in their deceptively strong record. In truth they’ve grown soft, as a lack of proper discipline and guidance allowed them to rest on their collective laurels. BC meanwhile comes full of Kennedy-esque fighting spirit. They simply sweep the Boys from Boise right off the field on the way to an easy victory.

The Prediction: Boston College- 28 Boise State- 13


MasterCard AlamoMichigan (7-4) vs. Nebraska (7-4)
The Songs:
“Hail to the Victors” IS the standard for all college fight songs. The chorus is one of the best known pieces of sports music, trailing only “Take Me Out to the Ballgame” and that little Charge! Fanfare every stadium organist seems to play once every three minutes. The full version is terrific. It begins with a very moving and enthusiastic march. Then it transfers into a darker, more intense strain that prepares you for combat. Finally it closes with the greatest college fight song ever written, the straight up rabble-rousing fist-pumping, adrenaline-rushing thrill that is the “Hail to the Victors” chorus. If you’ve ever seen the 107,000-plus people who fill the Big House sing along to the Michigan Marching Band, then you don’t need any convincing of just how great this song is.
Nebraska can take pride in their fight song as well. “There is No Place like Nebraska” is a sturdy piece of music. It’s the kind of song that makes alumni misty eyed whenever they hear it outside of a game context. Though the lyrics are clearly from a different era, for example, “Dear old Nebraska U/ Where the girls are the fairest/ The boys are the squarest/ Of any old place that I knew”. Stodgy lyrics aside, it’s still just the sort of fight song most colleges would be proud to have.

The Game: What can I say? Nebraska will play hard. They’ll put in a good fight for all four quarters, but they just don’t have the power behind them Michigan does. The exact mechanics of the game aren’t important, this one is just that clear cut. Once again Michigan will be the Victors.

The Prediction: Michigan- 30 Nebraska-17


Emerald BowlGeorgia Tech (7-4) vs. Utah (6-5)
The Songs:
The Georgia Institute of Technology excels, I am sure, at many things. Fight songs do not appear to be one of them. Their ditty of choice “Ramblin’ Wreck of Georgia Tech” is certainly gleeful. It’s also plodding, drawn out, and a little limp in the inspirational category. The lyrics are pretty awkward. As far as I can tell they are meant to be sung by a man who swears freely, drinks hard liquor, and is also a model engineer. Remind me never to contract an engineering project to the Atlanta area, if this is true. The song tries mightily, which as we all know is the first step to failing miserably.
The Utah Utes have designated “Utah Man” the song to which they fight. It is definitely simplistic and, as the title suggests, a little chauvinist. Still it is straightforward clear cut and succeeds at its aims. It gives the Utes who listen a certain sense of pride in whatever it is the school is trying to accomplish at that particular moment (here Utes means students, employees, and alumni of the University of Utah, not the actual Native American people who originated the name) .

The Game: Georgia Tech’s tough defense manages to slow down the game enough to keep it close, but Utah’s commitment to their offensive strategy pans out, giving the Double U the win.

The Prediction: Utah- 17 Georgia Tech- 13

On to Part 2.