The Captain's Arbitrary Bowl Prediction Method for 2006- Part 1

As fans of this blog may remember, I have a fondness for college football as a sport and for gambling as a subject of intellectual fascination. To combine these two personal interests into yet another long and rambling post by the Cap’n, I wrote a column last year that predicted the outcome of all the bowl games based on an arbitrary method. The basic concept is that while having a prediction (and maybe something else) on the line when you watch a game may bring an extra thrill, but you should never believe that any gambling system is going to be any more sensible or reliable than comparing fight songs. Since I’ve already contemplated the musical offerings of many of the teams in this year’s bowl games, I decided to stretch out and find a new means of judging the value of two teams that has no real relation to how well they actually play. For this bowl season the accuracy of prognostication will depend on how well I can analyze the relative strengths and weakness of the opponents’ stadiums. I chose this method because the many unique stadiums are one of distinguishing features that make college football such a special sport. The outstanding assortment of sizes, styles, and structural details make each home field an intense gameday atmosphere. Also, I’ve found myself relishing some of the pairings this bowl season more for the stadiums they offer up for contemplation then the inevitably unentertaining game they will offer for viewing. So once again I invite you to enjoy my insights as a topic for holiday party conversation and remind you to only gamble responsibly (which is to say not with money), as I present by Arbitrary Bowl Predictions!

Part 1

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
San Diego, CA
Qualcomm Stadium
December 19, 2006, ESPN2
Mountain West vs. at-large
Bowl Matchup: TCU vs. Northern Illinois
The Stadiums: The bowl season starts with the always underrated Poinsetta Bowl, brought to us this year by the kind folks of the San Diego County Credit Union. I don’t have a real problem with sponsors inserting their names into the bowl game’s title –that’s just part of living in a capitalistic society where college football is big business. However, couldn’t we please get some sort of gentlemen’s agreement that sponsors can’t have names longer than the bowl’s themselves, or at least a four syllable cap. Please just to save us all a little time. I’m worried one of these days Brent Musberger is going to pass out us welcoming us to “The Rose Bowl brought to you by Daimler-Chrysler Five-Star Automotive Dealership and Service Centers featuring the Platinum American Auto Club exclusively at Daimler-Chrysler dealerships in you area”.

Our first two stadiums are befitting two mid-major teams for whom making a bowl is and accomplishment. On one side of the country you have Texas Christian University’s finely fashioned Amon G. Carter Stadium. This is an old dating back to the university’s early attempts at college football. Carter stadium is rich in tradition, but poor in intimidation factor. Though it houses the historically third best college football team in the great football state of Texas, it seats significantly fewer people than some of the other less tradition rich sports teams in Texas. I mean, if the Texas Rangers could potentially pull more fans into the stands than the mighty TCU Horned Frogs, the stadium probably can’t be too fierce an environment.

Hundreds of miles away the Huskie Stadium stands as the football palace for Northern Illinois University. Their team (can you guess their nickname) may not have the proud history of TCU, but how many schools can boast having the first modern style quarterback. I count the NIU stadium’s relatively recent construction and the fact that it seats 15,000 fewer fans than Carter Stadium as hefty demerits against it. Still when I see pictures of the two sets of stands at Husky stadium jutting out steeply over the playing field I can’t help but imagine the fear two walls of fans can put into the opposition.

The Game: I imagine both teams will represent themselves well in this game. The deciding factor in my analysis is that Huskie stadium makes better use of it’s limited capacity to intimidate the visiting team. This suggests a well designed offense scheme that will allow the stars of NIU to make big plays and nearly outscore the fearsome horned frogs.

The Prediction: NIU- 27 TCU- 21

Las Vegas Bowl
Las Vegas, NV
Sam Boyd Stadium
December 21, 2006, ESPN
Pac 10 No. 4 vs. Mountain West No. 1
Bowl Matchup: Oregon vs. BYU
The Stadiums: The best part of doing these arbitrary prediction methods is that often the match-up brought on through the artifice of comparing items like fight songs, mascots, or stadiums, are often much more exciting than the actual on the field competition. In this instance the football game pairs a highly effective and stunningly underexposed Brigham Young team against a mostly uninspired team of Oregon Ducks, who have been a bit of a disappointment ever since their team started struggling mid-way through the season. So traditional football analysts would have you believe that this is likely going to be a blow out victory for the BYU Cougars. Of course none of them will consider how evenly the two teams’ stadiums compare to each other. Few people could imagine that LaVell Edwards Stadium, home of the BYU Cougars, and Autzen Stadium, home of the Oregon Ducks, have anything in common outside of hosting college football games. Let’s just look at the facts. Both teams play at the largest stadiums in their state. Both stadiums seem designed to get as many fans as possible close to field level so their cheers can have maximum impact. Both stadiums were funded in part by shadowing organizations few people understand and many distrust (for Brigham Young it’s the Mormons, for Oregon it’s Nike). Few games could match the thrill I get from judging the relative strengths and weakness of these two stadiums.

The Game: It comes down to a few key factors. Autzen Stadium has the sleeker, more modern, more aesthetically pleasing design, implying a superior offensive scheme. However LaVell Edwards stadium has more seating suggesting a stronger overall team. It also conveys a sense of tradition and grandeur which shows a definite edge in terms of the teams fighting spirit and mental toughness. The Cougars will win this one easily.

The Prediction: BYU- 31 Oregon- 20

New Orleans Bowl
New Orleans, LA
Louisiana Superdome
December 22, 2006, ESPN
Sun Belt vs. Conference USA
Bowl Matchup: Troy vs. Rice
The Stadiums: WHOOO-HOOOOOOO! The New Orleans Bowl is back in Nah’Ohlens! You can bet the coverage will make almost as much of the “It’s just great the city of New Orleans can host events like this again” storyline as much as the “These teams have both accomplished a lot to play in this bowl” storyline. The comparison of the stadiums is pretty one-sided. Rice Stadium has nearly twice as many seats as Troy Memorial Stadium. Visitors to Troy (formerly Troy State) play on a glorified high school football field, while teams that travel to Rice face imposing walls of concrete and a ring of fans surrounding them. Also Rice manages to support this grand arena in the city of Houston which has plenty of other activities vying for attention, while Troy gets to be the biggest attraction in south Alabama.

The Game: Much like the comparison of the stadiums I predict this will be a largely lopsided affair. Troy will play well for a quarter and a half as befitting a team who scraped together a winning season from out of the decidedly worst conference in college football. However the Owls of Rice will show that they have an underestimated team on the rise out in Conference USA.

The Prediction: Rice- 42 Troy- 17

New Mexico Bowl
Albuquerque, NM
University Stadium
December 23, 2006, ESPN
Mountain West vs. WAC
Bowl Matchup: New Mexico vs. San Jose State

The Stadiums: While these “Location” Bowls may not have the colorful titles of their more famous brethren, but I always appreciated being told up front and center where the game is being played. Some of these lower tier bowl games are actually played at college stadiums, giving some teams a chance to actually play at home. The fact that New Mexico’s University Stadium actually gets to display its advantages during the bowl game is a big disadvantage for San Jose State’s Spartan Stadium to overcome. However University Stadium’s 42,000 seats seem stark and poorly appointed with big empty spaces interrupting the crowd. With so many wholes in the stadium and so few seats really close to the playing field one can hardly envision New Mexico having much of a homefield advantage.

Contrasting that Spartan Stadium’s 26,000 seats are arranged in a full circle around the field with the stands rising in supple curves when necessary to accommodate more of the Spartan faithful. Spartan Stadiums actually reminds me of those tight little gyms where small college basketball teams play. When those basketball teams pack the stands with impassioned fans, as San Jose State’s football team has been able to do lately, they can really pump their team up and get in the opponents heads. It can be quite an impressive feat to see the big time schools get wigged out in the little school’s stadiums, but it can be accomplished with a well designed stadium.

The Game: Watch for New Mexico to come out early and try to use their more powerful players and better athletes to wear out San Jose State before they can make a game of it. The Spartans will survive the initial push and will come back to take an impressive lead. Though New Mexico will probably score late to make the final score closer than it really was, San Jose State will come back with a late score of their own to put the game away.

The Prediction: San Jose State- 24 New Mexico- 17

Papajohns.com Bowl
Birmingham, AL
Legion Field
December 23, 2006, ESPN2
Conference USA vs. Big East or MAC
Bowl Matchup: East Carolina vs. South Florida
The Stadiums: No, I’m not surprised that the Papa John’s website managed to pony up the cash to get a bowl game named after them, see my above statement about living in a capitalistic society and college football being big business (actually, no need to revisit that passage since I managed to pretty much repeat it verbatim). I am surprised by the fact that the Papa John’s corporate bosses couldn’t swing getting the game in Louisville, Kentucky where they already have the University of Louisville stadium in there name. I realize you may be risking poor weather, but surely Louisville as a city could attract more visitors than Birmingham, Alabama.

The comparison of the stadiums actually isn’t that fun. Sure I like looking at East Carolina’s Dowdy Ficklen Stadium with it’s bold curves and imposing concrete structure. However South Florida is disqualified for not having their own stadium. Yes it is cool they get to play in the Tampa Bay Buccaneer’s big, shiny Raymond James Stadium. However I sincerely doubt they ever draw as many fans as the Bucs, and hardly have any ownership in the stadium itself.

The Game: I’ll give South Florida some pity points since the football program can’t be entirely blamed for the fact that their administration chose to mooch off the local pro team. However this one is any easy win for ECU.

The Prediction: East Carolina- 27 South Florida- 7

Armed Forces Bowl
Fort Worth, TX
Amon G. Carter Stadium
December 23, 2006, ESPN
Mountain West vs. Conference USA
Bowl Matchup: Utah vs. Tulsa
The Stadiums: This game is scheduled to start at 8pm Easter time, and I can’t figure out why. I don’t believe these teams have much pull east of the Mississippi. The game will be played in a stadium on the western side of the Central Time Zone. I imagine both schools have their fan bases living pretty heavily in the Mountain Time Zone. So I can’t figure out why they didn’t push this back to a 10pm Eastern/ 7pm Pacific kick-off and find a way to squeeze in another event in the preceding timeslot. Instead we are left with a game that can only offer two mildly interesting stadiums for us to consider. Tulsa’s Skelly Stadium has fun splashes of color and a certain welcoming folksiness, but no real intimidation. Utah’s Rice-Eccles Stadium has grandeur and modern design, but lacks heart and soul.

The Game: Utah’s stadium may indicate superior athletes, and the ability to dominate a game through sheer physical force, yet Skelly Stadium has the spirit of a winning team. As we have witnessed time and time again, in bowl games the team that can summon the greater passion and desire often wins. For this game I will tip ever so slightly for Tulsa.

The Prediction: Tulsa- 23 Utah- 20

Hawaii Bowl
Honolulu, HI
Aloha Stadium
December 24, 2006, ESPN
Pac 10 vs. WAC
Bowl Matchup: Arizona State vs. Hawai’i
The Stadiums: Once again we have a bowl game being played at one of the teams home stadiums (largely by design, because where else are the Warriors of Hawai’i going to draw a sizable crowd, I’m not saying their bad, I’m just saying it’s hard to convince Hawai’i residents to travel to the Mainland in the winter time). This game also provides another underrated match-up between two lightly considered teams, but two powerhouses of stadiums. In favor of Arizona State is the fact that Sun Devil Stadium has a fun rousing atmosphere that gives fans a chance to honestly affect the outcome of the game. Plus, it has until recently served as the host for one of college footballs most prestigious bowls, the Fiesta! On the other hand Hawai’i has Aloha Stadium, which has a game time environment all its own. It also hosts the ProBowl every year, until the NFL decides it might as well shift the least meaningful all-star game in American pro-sports to some foreign country in a lame attempt at global promotion. This is one tough contest.

The Game: After weighing several factors, I ultimately made my decision on which stadium best captured the overall spirit of the team. While Sun Devil Stadium is festive and colorful, Aloha Stadium has a unique flavor and feel that could only ever truly work for the Warriors. I say that, plus the fact that Hawai’I basically has a home game here, tips the balance toward Hawai’i by a pretty heavy margin.

The Prediction: Hawai’i- 48 Arizona State- 24

Motor City Bowl
Detroit, MI
Ford Field
December 26, 2006, ESPN
MAC vs. Big Ten No. 7
Bowl Matchup: Central Michigan vs. Middle Tennessee
The Stadiums: When was the last time you ever seriously considered anything remotely connected to these schools, let alone spent a significant amount of time considering their home stadiums? That’s just one more demonstration of all them fun you can have with an arbitrary prediction method. Johny “Red” Flyod Stadium in Murfreesboro, Tennessee serves as the gridiron of choice for Middle Tennessee State University. There the Blue Raiders take advantage of the octangular perimeter of seats that surround the field with their fans. Kelly Shorts Stadium (I swear I am not making that name up) in Mount Pleasant, Michigan (an unusual name since it is neither mountainous nor pleasant) has a certain flat simplistic charm too it. The Fighting Chippewa of CMU play in a stadium that resembles some sort of skate park attraction. This bowl presents an unusual pairing of contrasting styles.

The Game: While I normally find overly open designs like the one seen at Kelly Shorts stadium dull and unsatisfying, here I find it to be an advantage. The odd angles of Floyd Stadium concern me. I interpret them to mean the MTSU coaches will be obtuse in approaching the game, and bring their player’s in sadly unprepared for the team they face. Kelly Shorts Stadium (I assume by now you’ve all looked it up, and know I’m not making that name up) with its simple design suggests that the CMU coaches will keep it basic. Their meat and potato play calling will prove the decisive factor, in a game few will find memorable. Plus, how can you root against a stadium called Kelly Shorts!?

The Prediction: Central Michigan- 23 Middle Tennessee State- 17

Emerald Bowl
San Francisco, CA
AT&T Park
December 27, 2006, ESPN
ACC No. 7 vs. Pac 10 No. 5
Bowl Matchup: Florida State vs. UCLA
The Stadiums: Many dismiss lower tier bowl games as a callous attempt by colleges, sponsors, and host stadiums to try and score some easy money by pitting two mediocre teams that most people don’t really care to see play another game against each other in a location few would take a winter holiday to if they weren’t forced to out of loyalty to team and school. They are pretty much right about that. However these bowl critics miss out on the chance to enjoy the little details these games present.

Let’s start with the fact that it is a fairly rare occurrence for an ACC and a Pac 10 team to play each other as is. Combine that with the fact that you’ll rarely find Florida State slipping to the bottom half in the ACC in the same year that UCLA winds up smack in the middle of the Pac 10. Add onto all of that the general quality of these two teams’ stadiums. The Florida State Seminoles call a little piece of wonder call Doak Campbell Stadium home, and it has some of the most inspiring archs and precipices you could ask for. The 83,000 seat ellipse built of solid stone and decorated with FSU colors around the exterior truly exemplifies how great football can be in the state of Florida. Plus you have to love how the university shows their appreciation for the most important figure in the programs history by naming the field itself Bobby Bowden field, after the man who brought football greatness to Florida State. The University of California at Los Angeles is no slouch either. The Bruins get to play their home games in the Rose Bowl. The frikkin’ ROSE BOWL! Yes, I realize that the university may not really own the stadium, but they are not disqualified because no other team plays their regular season games there. This stadium can accommodate 93,000 fans in its ring of pure college football greatness.

The Game: I realize Doak Walker is great, and I imagine the Seminoles will put up a good fight. But this is the Rose Bowl we’re talking about. The frikkin’ ROSE BOWL!

The Prediction: UCLA- 38 Florida State- 17

Independence Bowl
Shreveport, LA
Independence Stadium
December 27, 2006, ESPN
Big 12 No. 7 vs. SEC No. 8
Bowl Matchup: Oklahoma State vs. Alabama
The Stadiums: There’s an interesting storyline lurking in the subtext of this game for both universities, and, intriguingly enough, it’s pretty much the same story for both schools. The basic question being asked is how much influence a single person can have on a football program. I notice this because both these schools have a stadium named for a man who either has placed or is placing his permanent mark on football at his respective university.

Oklahoma State fans make their autumnal pilgrimage to Boone Pickens Stadium. The Cowboys enjoy a festive colorful stadium paid for in part by the insanely generous contributions of T. Boone Pickens Junior to Oklahoma State University. This has many fearing that a wealthy alumnus has far too much influence if he can gets his name on the It may not be a monolith of a stadium like a more storied programs has, but it captures the spirit and soul of the maverick OSU program.

Down south the shadow over the program isn’t being cast in the present, rather it’s extending out of the past. The Bryant in Alabama’s Bryant-Denny Stadium is the legendary coach Paul William “Bear” Bryant, who forever stamped his fingerprints on Alabama years ago. His signature hound’s tooth cap, authoritative style, and most importantly success on the gridiron have made it hard for any other coach to come in and build anything at Alabama unique at Alabama. This is part of the reason Alabama is currently finding it very difficult to fill their head coaching vacancy. What Bear built became the basis for the incredible stadium known as Bryant-Denny. If football is king in the south then Bryant-Denny could be a fitting throne. The vast seats are arranged in a horseshoe around the field, so the ‘Bama fans can either propel the Crimson Tide onto victory, or to be a vicious wall halting the progress of opponents. It is the very model of a monolithic stadium, I mentioned above.

The Game: It comes downn to a few simple factors. Since both stadiums represent the essence of the program well, we have to compare some more nuanced details. The fact that Bryant-Denny has almost twice as many seats as Boone Pickens is a big advantage. Also let’s consider the psychological effect for the OSU Cowboys of playing in a stadium named for a man who essentially serves as their rich, eccentric uncle. They may have a fun, free-wheeling atmosphere by the comfort and sense of entitlement it breeds probably sucks some of their drive and hunger. I’ll bet the Tide come in with a little more motivation and fight, and prove that other coaches can succeed in the house Bear built.

The Prediction: Alabama- 17 Oklahoma State- 14

Holiday Bowl
San Diego, CA
Qualcomm Stadium
December 28, 2006, ESPN
Pac 10 No. 2 vs. Big 12 No. 3
Bowl Matchup: California vs. Texas A&M
The Stadiums: Some sports teams take on a personality based largely in relationship to other teams. For some teams like Alabama-Auburn the relationship defines both schools as the hated rival of the other. In cases like Cal and A&M the schools are best known as the second-fiddle to another major college football paper in their own state. The University of California at Berkley currently serves as the kid brother of the University of Southern California, while Texas A&M has to play in the shadow of the University of Texas at Austin. These schools have to find other ways to outshine their respective nemeses.

Texas A&M stuffed themselves full of traditions. So many traditions that they could cut out half and still have more college football related rituals than most schools. Included in this is the astounding Kyle Field. The stadium looks like an architectural wonder with its multiple decks of seats stacking up into the sky. Not only are their mountains of fans on all sides of the field, but they also are famous for shouting louder than any other fan base in the country, so much so they stand literally shake from all the activity.

Cal chose to become an all around better academic institution than USC, and opted for a more subdued stadium. Memorial Stadium has the simply elegance of an elliptical bowl that has a certain west coast style with its color scheme and decorative flourishes. They may not have college football glory, but these schools seem to do all right just the same.

The Game: Few things are as obvious in stadium analysis as the observation that stadiums that sway with the crowds are likely home to teams prone to shaky performances, a serious problem with Texas A&M. Of course that does not outweigh the overall grandeur of Kyle Field, especially when compared to the simple adequacy of Cal’s home stadium.

The Prediction: Texas A&M- 17 California- 14

Texas Bowl
Houston, TX
Reliant Stadium
December 28, 2006, NFL Network
Big 12 vs. Big East
Bowl Matchup: Kansas State vs. Rutgers
The Stadiums: These two schools may actually represent two different chapters in the same story. One school, Kansas State, has come from frequent conference doormat to a minor power to now a nationally recognized brand of football, all under the steady leadership of former head coach Bill Snyder. As a reward K-State has named their sturdy, modern, and well-appointed stadium for Bill Snyder’s family, since the humble Coach Snyder wouldn’t allow them to name it after him specifically.

Rutgers is meanwhile breaking out of years of college football destitution to finally shine on a national stage. The little team from New Jersey just may do the previously unthinkable and get New York City interested in college football. It will be many years before we know whether the State University of New Jersey will rename their modest and charming stadium for Greg Schiano, or rather his family, but may I just say that it would certainly be an improvement over the current rather unimaginative name of Rutgers Stadium.

The Game: KSU’s stadium is technically proficient, but it lacks soul. I expect the team to execute their plays well, but not to play with lots of passion. Rutgers Stadium is modest and low key, but it seems to capture perfectly the spirit of the little team that could.

The Prediction: Rutgers- 23 Kansas State- 17

Champs Sports Bowl
Orlando, FL
Florida Citrus Bowl
December 29, 2006, ESPN
Big Ten No. 4 or 5 vs. ACC No. 4
Bowl Matchup: Purdue vs. Maryland
The Stadiums: Maryland’s Terrapins play in the satisfactorily acceptable Byrd Stadium. Byrd has exactly what you would expect a college football stadium to have, some color, some nice grandstands, and a bustling gameday atmosphere. It’s a decent place to spend a Saturday afternoon, if you live in the Washington D.C. area and college football is your thing.

Purdue’s Ross-Ade Stadium is just on another level. The stands of a glittering gold, they have a fake train to sound its horn after every home team scorn. It is just the kind of glittering jewel that almost demands your attendance and makes college football in the Midwest something truly special.

The Game: The above analysis leaves little doubt about the outcome of this game. It may be fun to watch and it may look even, but Purdue will be in control the whole time and will eventually pull away from Maryland to put the game away.

The Prediction: Purdue- 35 Maryland- 24

Music City Bowl
Nashville, TN
The Coliseum
December 29, 2006, ESPN
SEC vs. ACC No. 5
Bowl Matchup: Kentucky vs. Clemson
The Stadiums: The pairing of stadiums here lacks much excitement. Clemson’s Memorial Stadium has the clear advantage. The way the field sits just beneath ground level surrounded by the stands only focus’s the fans passion even better. Plus when you consider all the famous accoutrements Clemson has built up around their stadium, it seems like any stadium would have a tough time matching up. The only think that I can really say about Kentucky’s Commonwealth Stadium is that it’s nice to see one of the commonwealths in the country share some pride in the rare distinction of being a commonwealth in a nation called the United States. Not every commonwealth is as forthcoming about this as KY. For example, why is there a college called Penn State when Pennsylvania is a commonwealth? Also, for all you students out their, you can always annoy people, such as unsuspecting civics teachers who should know this sort of thing, by asking them if they can name the four commonwealths in the U.S. Try it, it’s good fun.

The Game: It should be pretty obvious. And know I’m not going to tell you what the other two commonwealths are; you have to look them up yourself.

The Prediction: Clemson- 28 Kentucky- 17