The Captain's Arbitrary Bowl Prediction Method for 2006- Part 1

As fans of this blog may remember, I have a fondness for college football as a sport and for gambling as a subject of intellectual fascination. To combine these two personal interests into yet another long and rambling post by the Cap’n, I wrote a column last year that predicted the outcome of all the bowl games based on an arbitrary method. The basic concept is that while having a prediction (and maybe something else) on the line when you watch a game may bring an extra thrill, but you should never believe that any gambling system is going to be any more sensible or reliable than comparing fight songs. Since I’ve already contemplated the musical offerings of many of the teams in this year’s bowl games, I decided to stretch out and find a new means of judging the value of two teams that has no real relation to how well they actually play. For this bowl season the accuracy of prognostication will depend on how well I can analyze the relative strengths and weakness of the opponents’ stadiums. I chose this method because the many unique stadiums are one of distinguishing features that make college football such a special sport. The outstanding assortment of sizes, styles, and structural details make each home field an intense gameday atmosphere. Also, I’ve found myself relishing some of the pairings this bowl season more for the stadiums they offer up for contemplation then the inevitably unentertaining game they will offer for viewing. So once again I invite you to enjoy my insights as a topic for holiday party conversation and remind you to only gamble responsibly (which is to say not with money), as I present by Arbitrary Bowl Predictions!

Part 1

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
San Diego, CA
Qualcomm Stadium
December 19, 2006, ESPN2
Mountain West vs. at-large
Bowl Matchup: TCU vs. Northern Illinois
The Stadiums: The bowl season starts with the always underrated Poinsetta Bowl, brought to us this year by the kind folks of the San Diego County Credit Union. I don’t have a real problem with sponsors inserting their names into the bowl game’s title –that’s just part of living in a capitalistic society where college football is big business. However, couldn’t we please get some sort of gentlemen’s agreement that sponsors can’t have names longer than the bowl’s themselves, or at least a four syllable cap. Please just to save us all a little time. I’m worried one of these days Brent Musberger is going to pass out us welcoming us to “The Rose Bowl brought to you by Daimler-Chrysler Five-Star Automotive Dealership and Service Centers featuring the Platinum American Auto Club exclusively at Daimler-Chrysler dealerships in you area”.

Our first two stadiums are befitting two mid-major teams for whom making a bowl is and accomplishment. On one side of the country you have Texas Christian University’s finely fashioned Amon G. Carter Stadium. This is an old dating back to the university’s early attempts at college football. Carter stadium is rich in tradition, but poor in intimidation factor. Though it houses the historically third best college football team in the great football state of Texas, it seats significantly fewer people than some of the other less tradition rich sports teams in Texas. I mean, if the Texas Rangers could potentially pull more fans into the stands than the mighty TCU Horned Frogs, the stadium probably can’t be too fierce an environment.

Hundreds of miles away the Huskie Stadium stands as the football palace for Northern Illinois University. Their team (can you guess their nickname) may not have the proud history of TCU, but how many schools can boast having the first modern style quarterback. I count the NIU stadium’s relatively recent construction and the fact that it seats 15,000 fewer fans than Carter Stadium as hefty demerits against it. Still when I see pictures of the two sets of stands at Husky stadium jutting out steeply over the playing field I can’t help but imagine the fear two walls of fans can put into the opposition.

The Game: I imagine both teams will represent themselves well in this game. The deciding factor in my analysis is that Huskie stadium makes better use of it’s limited capacity to intimidate the visiting team. This suggests a well designed offense scheme that will allow the stars of NIU to make big plays and nearly outscore the fearsome horned frogs.

The Prediction: NIU- 27 TCU- 21

Las Vegas Bowl
Las Vegas, NV
Sam Boyd Stadium
December 21, 2006, ESPN
Pac 10 No. 4 vs. Mountain West No. 1
Bowl Matchup: Oregon vs. BYU
The Stadiums: The best part of doing these arbitrary prediction methods is that often the match-up brought on through the artifice of comparing items like fight songs, mascots, or stadiums, are often much more exciting than the actual on the field competition. In this instance the football game pairs a highly effective and stunningly underexposed Brigham Young team against a mostly uninspired team of Oregon Ducks, who have been a bit of a disappointment ever since their team started struggling mid-way through the season. So traditional football analysts would have you believe that this is likely going to be a blow out victory for the BYU Cougars. Of course none of them will consider how evenly the two teams’ stadiums compare to each other. Few people could imagine that LaVell Edwards Stadium, home of the BYU Cougars, and Autzen Stadium, home of the Oregon Ducks, have anything in common outside of hosting college football games. Let’s just look at the facts. Both teams play at the largest stadiums in their state. Both stadiums seem designed to get as many fans as possible close to field level so their cheers can have maximum impact. Both stadiums were funded in part by shadowing organizations few people understand and many distrust (for Brigham Young it’s the Mormons, for Oregon it’s Nike). Few games could match the thrill I get from judging the relative strengths and weakness of these two stadiums.

The Game: It comes down to a few key factors. Autzen Stadium has the sleeker, more modern, more aesthetically pleasing design, implying a superior offensive scheme. However LaVell Edwards stadium has more seating suggesting a stronger overall team. It also conveys a sense of tradition and grandeur which shows a definite edge in terms of the teams fighting spirit and mental toughness. The Cougars will win this one easily.

The Prediction: BYU- 31 Oregon- 20

New Orleans Bowl
New Orleans, LA
Louisiana Superdome
December 22, 2006, ESPN
Sun Belt vs. Conference USA
Bowl Matchup: Troy vs. Rice
The Stadiums: WHOOO-HOOOOOOO! The New Orleans Bowl is back in Nah’Ohlens! You can bet the coverage will make almost as much of the “It’s just great the city of New Orleans can host events like this again” storyline as much as the “These teams have both accomplished a lot to play in this bowl” storyline. The comparison of the stadiums is pretty one-sided. Rice Stadium has nearly twice as many seats as Troy Memorial Stadium. Visitors to Troy (formerly Troy State) play on a glorified high school football field, while teams that travel to Rice face imposing walls of concrete and a ring of fans surrounding them. Also Rice manages to support this grand arena in the city of Houston which has plenty of other activities vying for attention, while Troy gets to be the biggest attraction in south Alabama.

The Game: Much like the comparison of the stadiums I predict this will be a largely lopsided affair. Troy will play well for a quarter and a half as befitting a team who scraped together a winning season from out of the decidedly worst conference in college football. However the Owls of Rice will show that they have an underestimated team on the rise out in Conference USA.

The Prediction: Rice- 42 Troy- 17

New Mexico Bowl
Albuquerque, NM
University Stadium
December 23, 2006, ESPN
Mountain West vs. WAC
Bowl Matchup: New Mexico vs. San Jose State

The Stadiums: While these “Location” Bowls may not have the colorful titles of their more famous brethren, but I always appreciated being told up front and center where the game is being played. Some of these lower tier bowl games are actually played at college stadiums, giving some teams a chance to actually play at home. The fact that New Mexico’s University Stadium actually gets to display its advantages during the bowl game is a big disadvantage for San Jose State’s Spartan Stadium to overcome. However University Stadium’s 42,000 seats seem stark and poorly appointed with big empty spaces interrupting the crowd. With so many wholes in the stadium and so few seats really close to the playing field one can hardly envision New Mexico having much of a homefield advantage.

Contrasting that Spartan Stadium’s 26,000 seats are arranged in a full circle around the field with the stands rising in supple curves when necessary to accommodate more of the Spartan faithful. Spartan Stadiums actually reminds me of those tight little gyms where small college basketball teams play. When those basketball teams pack the stands with impassioned fans, as San Jose State’s football team has been able to do lately, they can really pump their team up and get in the opponents heads. It can be quite an impressive feat to see the big time schools get wigged out in the little school’s stadiums, but it can be accomplished with a well designed stadium.

The Game: Watch for New Mexico to come out early and try to use their more powerful players and better athletes to wear out San Jose State before they can make a game of it. The Spartans will survive the initial push and will come back to take an impressive lead. Though New Mexico will probably score late to make the final score closer than it really was, San Jose State will come back with a late score of their own to put the game away.

The Prediction: San Jose State- 24 New Mexico- 17

Papajohns.com Bowl
Birmingham, AL
Legion Field
December 23, 2006, ESPN2
Conference USA vs. Big East or MAC
Bowl Matchup: East Carolina vs. South Florida
The Stadiums: No, I’m not surprised that the Papa John’s website managed to pony up the cash to get a bowl game named after them, see my above statement about living in a capitalistic society and college football being big business (actually, no need to revisit that passage since I managed to pretty much repeat it verbatim). I am surprised by the fact that the Papa John’s corporate bosses couldn’t swing getting the game in Louisville, Kentucky where they already have the University of Louisville stadium in there name. I realize you may be risking poor weather, but surely Louisville as a city could attract more visitors than Birmingham, Alabama.

The comparison of the stadiums actually isn’t that fun. Sure I like looking at East Carolina’s Dowdy Ficklen Stadium with it’s bold curves and imposing concrete structure. However South Florida is disqualified for not having their own stadium. Yes it is cool they get to play in the Tampa Bay Buccaneer’s big, shiny Raymond James Stadium. However I sincerely doubt they ever draw as many fans as the Bucs, and hardly have any ownership in the stadium itself.

The Game: I’ll give South Florida some pity points since the football program can’t be entirely blamed for the fact that their administration chose to mooch off the local pro team. However this one is any easy win for ECU.

The Prediction: East Carolina- 27 South Florida- 7

Armed Forces Bowl
Fort Worth, TX
Amon G. Carter Stadium
December 23, 2006, ESPN
Mountain West vs. Conference USA
Bowl Matchup: Utah vs. Tulsa
The Stadiums: This game is scheduled to start at 8pm Easter time, and I can’t figure out why. I don’t believe these teams have much pull east of the Mississippi. The game will be played in a stadium on the western side of the Central Time Zone. I imagine both schools have their fan bases living pretty heavily in the Mountain Time Zone. So I can’t figure out why they didn’t push this back to a 10pm Eastern/ 7pm Pacific kick-off and find a way to squeeze in another event in the preceding timeslot. Instead we are left with a game that can only offer two mildly interesting stadiums for us to consider. Tulsa’s Skelly Stadium has fun splashes of color and a certain welcoming folksiness, but no real intimidation. Utah’s Rice-Eccles Stadium has grandeur and modern design, but lacks heart and soul.

The Game: Utah’s stadium may indicate superior athletes, and the ability to dominate a game through sheer physical force, yet Skelly Stadium has the spirit of a winning team. As we have witnessed time and time again, in bowl games the team that can summon the greater passion and desire often wins. For this game I will tip ever so slightly for Tulsa.

The Prediction: Tulsa- 23 Utah- 20

Hawaii Bowl
Honolulu, HI
Aloha Stadium
December 24, 2006, ESPN
Pac 10 vs. WAC
Bowl Matchup: Arizona State vs. Hawai’i
The Stadiums: Once again we have a bowl game being played at one of the teams home stadiums (largely by design, because where else are the Warriors of Hawai’i going to draw a sizable crowd, I’m not saying their bad, I’m just saying it’s hard to convince Hawai’i residents to travel to the Mainland in the winter time). This game also provides another underrated match-up between two lightly considered teams, but two powerhouses of stadiums. In favor of Arizona State is the fact that Sun Devil Stadium has a fun rousing atmosphere that gives fans a chance to honestly affect the outcome of the game. Plus, it has until recently served as the host for one of college footballs most prestigious bowls, the Fiesta! On the other hand Hawai’i has Aloha Stadium, which has a game time environment all its own. It also hosts the ProBowl every year, until the NFL decides it might as well shift the least meaningful all-star game in American pro-sports to some foreign country in a lame attempt at global promotion. This is one tough contest.

The Game: After weighing several factors, I ultimately made my decision on which stadium best captured the overall spirit of the team. While Sun Devil Stadium is festive and colorful, Aloha Stadium has a unique flavor and feel that could only ever truly work for the Warriors. I say that, plus the fact that Hawai’I basically has a home game here, tips the balance toward Hawai’i by a pretty heavy margin.

The Prediction: Hawai’i- 48 Arizona State- 24

Motor City Bowl
Detroit, MI
Ford Field
December 26, 2006, ESPN
MAC vs. Big Ten No. 7
Bowl Matchup: Central Michigan vs. Middle Tennessee
The Stadiums: When was the last time you ever seriously considered anything remotely connected to these schools, let alone spent a significant amount of time considering their home stadiums? That’s just one more demonstration of all them fun you can have with an arbitrary prediction method. Johny “Red” Flyod Stadium in Murfreesboro, Tennessee serves as the gridiron of choice for Middle Tennessee State University. There the Blue Raiders take advantage of the octangular perimeter of seats that surround the field with their fans. Kelly Shorts Stadium (I swear I am not making that name up) in Mount Pleasant, Michigan (an unusual name since it is neither mountainous nor pleasant) has a certain flat simplistic charm too it. The Fighting Chippewa of CMU play in a stadium that resembles some sort of skate park attraction. This bowl presents an unusual pairing of contrasting styles.

The Game: While I normally find overly open designs like the one seen at Kelly Shorts stadium dull and unsatisfying, here I find it to be an advantage. The odd angles of Floyd Stadium concern me. I interpret them to mean the MTSU coaches will be obtuse in approaching the game, and bring their player’s in sadly unprepared for the team they face. Kelly Shorts Stadium (I assume by now you’ve all looked it up, and know I’m not making that name up) with its simple design suggests that the CMU coaches will keep it basic. Their meat and potato play calling will prove the decisive factor, in a game few will find memorable. Plus, how can you root against a stadium called Kelly Shorts!?

The Prediction: Central Michigan- 23 Middle Tennessee State- 17

Emerald Bowl
San Francisco, CA
AT&T Park
December 27, 2006, ESPN
ACC No. 7 vs. Pac 10 No. 5
Bowl Matchup: Florida State vs. UCLA
The Stadiums: Many dismiss lower tier bowl games as a callous attempt by colleges, sponsors, and host stadiums to try and score some easy money by pitting two mediocre teams that most people don’t really care to see play another game against each other in a location few would take a winter holiday to if they weren’t forced to out of loyalty to team and school. They are pretty much right about that. However these bowl critics miss out on the chance to enjoy the little details these games present.

Let’s start with the fact that it is a fairly rare occurrence for an ACC and a Pac 10 team to play each other as is. Combine that with the fact that you’ll rarely find Florida State slipping to the bottom half in the ACC in the same year that UCLA winds up smack in the middle of the Pac 10. Add onto all of that the general quality of these two teams’ stadiums. The Florida State Seminoles call a little piece of wonder call Doak Campbell Stadium home, and it has some of the most inspiring archs and precipices you could ask for. The 83,000 seat ellipse built of solid stone and decorated with FSU colors around the exterior truly exemplifies how great football can be in the state of Florida. Plus you have to love how the university shows their appreciation for the most important figure in the programs history by naming the field itself Bobby Bowden field, after the man who brought football greatness to Florida State. The University of California at Los Angeles is no slouch either. The Bruins get to play their home games in the Rose Bowl. The frikkin’ ROSE BOWL! Yes, I realize that the university may not really own the stadium, but they are not disqualified because no other team plays their regular season games there. This stadium can accommodate 93,000 fans in its ring of pure college football greatness.

The Game: I realize Doak Walker is great, and I imagine the Seminoles will put up a good fight. But this is the Rose Bowl we’re talking about. The frikkin’ ROSE BOWL!

The Prediction: UCLA- 38 Florida State- 17

Independence Bowl
Shreveport, LA
Independence Stadium
December 27, 2006, ESPN
Big 12 No. 7 vs. SEC No. 8
Bowl Matchup: Oklahoma State vs. Alabama
The Stadiums: There’s an interesting storyline lurking in the subtext of this game for both universities, and, intriguingly enough, it’s pretty much the same story for both schools. The basic question being asked is how much influence a single person can have on a football program. I notice this because both these schools have a stadium named for a man who either has placed or is placing his permanent mark on football at his respective university.

Oklahoma State fans make their autumnal pilgrimage to Boone Pickens Stadium. The Cowboys enjoy a festive colorful stadium paid for in part by the insanely generous contributions of T. Boone Pickens Junior to Oklahoma State University. This has many fearing that a wealthy alumnus has far too much influence if he can gets his name on the It may not be a monolith of a stadium like a more storied programs has, but it captures the spirit and soul of the maverick OSU program.

Down south the shadow over the program isn’t being cast in the present, rather it’s extending out of the past. The Bryant in Alabama’s Bryant-Denny Stadium is the legendary coach Paul William “Bear” Bryant, who forever stamped his fingerprints on Alabama years ago. His signature hound’s tooth cap, authoritative style, and most importantly success on the gridiron have made it hard for any other coach to come in and build anything at Alabama unique at Alabama. This is part of the reason Alabama is currently finding it very difficult to fill their head coaching vacancy. What Bear built became the basis for the incredible stadium known as Bryant-Denny. If football is king in the south then Bryant-Denny could be a fitting throne. The vast seats are arranged in a horseshoe around the field, so the ‘Bama fans can either propel the Crimson Tide onto victory, or to be a vicious wall halting the progress of opponents. It is the very model of a monolithic stadium, I mentioned above.

The Game: It comes downn to a few simple factors. Since both stadiums represent the essence of the program well, we have to compare some more nuanced details. The fact that Bryant-Denny has almost twice as many seats as Boone Pickens is a big advantage. Also let’s consider the psychological effect for the OSU Cowboys of playing in a stadium named for a man who essentially serves as their rich, eccentric uncle. They may have a fun, free-wheeling atmosphere by the comfort and sense of entitlement it breeds probably sucks some of their drive and hunger. I’ll bet the Tide come in with a little more motivation and fight, and prove that other coaches can succeed in the house Bear built.

The Prediction: Alabama- 17 Oklahoma State- 14

Holiday Bowl
San Diego, CA
Qualcomm Stadium
December 28, 2006, ESPN
Pac 10 No. 2 vs. Big 12 No. 3
Bowl Matchup: California vs. Texas A&M
The Stadiums: Some sports teams take on a personality based largely in relationship to other teams. For some teams like Alabama-Auburn the relationship defines both schools as the hated rival of the other. In cases like Cal and A&M the schools are best known as the second-fiddle to another major college football paper in their own state. The University of California at Berkley currently serves as the kid brother of the University of Southern California, while Texas A&M has to play in the shadow of the University of Texas at Austin. These schools have to find other ways to outshine their respective nemeses.

Texas A&M stuffed themselves full of traditions. So many traditions that they could cut out half and still have more college football related rituals than most schools. Included in this is the astounding Kyle Field. The stadium looks like an architectural wonder with its multiple decks of seats stacking up into the sky. Not only are their mountains of fans on all sides of the field, but they also are famous for shouting louder than any other fan base in the country, so much so they stand literally shake from all the activity.

Cal chose to become an all around better academic institution than USC, and opted for a more subdued stadium. Memorial Stadium has the simply elegance of an elliptical bowl that has a certain west coast style with its color scheme and decorative flourishes. They may not have college football glory, but these schools seem to do all right just the same.

The Game: Few things are as obvious in stadium analysis as the observation that stadiums that sway with the crowds are likely home to teams prone to shaky performances, a serious problem with Texas A&M. Of course that does not outweigh the overall grandeur of Kyle Field, especially when compared to the simple adequacy of Cal’s home stadium.

The Prediction: Texas A&M- 17 California- 14

Texas Bowl
Houston, TX
Reliant Stadium
December 28, 2006, NFL Network
Big 12 vs. Big East
Bowl Matchup: Kansas State vs. Rutgers
The Stadiums: These two schools may actually represent two different chapters in the same story. One school, Kansas State, has come from frequent conference doormat to a minor power to now a nationally recognized brand of football, all under the steady leadership of former head coach Bill Snyder. As a reward K-State has named their sturdy, modern, and well-appointed stadium for Bill Snyder’s family, since the humble Coach Snyder wouldn’t allow them to name it after him specifically.

Rutgers is meanwhile breaking out of years of college football destitution to finally shine on a national stage. The little team from New Jersey just may do the previously unthinkable and get New York City interested in college football. It will be many years before we know whether the State University of New Jersey will rename their modest and charming stadium for Greg Schiano, or rather his family, but may I just say that it would certainly be an improvement over the current rather unimaginative name of Rutgers Stadium.

The Game: KSU’s stadium is technically proficient, but it lacks soul. I expect the team to execute their plays well, but not to play with lots of passion. Rutgers Stadium is modest and low key, but it seems to capture perfectly the spirit of the little team that could.

The Prediction: Rutgers- 23 Kansas State- 17

Champs Sports Bowl
Orlando, FL
Florida Citrus Bowl
December 29, 2006, ESPN
Big Ten No. 4 or 5 vs. ACC No. 4
Bowl Matchup: Purdue vs. Maryland
The Stadiums: Maryland’s Terrapins play in the satisfactorily acceptable Byrd Stadium. Byrd has exactly what you would expect a college football stadium to have, some color, some nice grandstands, and a bustling gameday atmosphere. It’s a decent place to spend a Saturday afternoon, if you live in the Washington D.C. area and college football is your thing.

Purdue’s Ross-Ade Stadium is just on another level. The stands of a glittering gold, they have a fake train to sound its horn after every home team scorn. It is just the kind of glittering jewel that almost demands your attendance and makes college football in the Midwest something truly special.

The Game: The above analysis leaves little doubt about the outcome of this game. It may be fun to watch and it may look even, but Purdue will be in control the whole time and will eventually pull away from Maryland to put the game away.

The Prediction: Purdue- 35 Maryland- 24

Music City Bowl
Nashville, TN
The Coliseum
December 29, 2006, ESPN
SEC vs. ACC No. 5
Bowl Matchup: Kentucky vs. Clemson
The Stadiums: The pairing of stadiums here lacks much excitement. Clemson’s Memorial Stadium has the clear advantage. The way the field sits just beneath ground level surrounded by the stands only focus’s the fans passion even better. Plus when you consider all the famous accoutrements Clemson has built up around their stadium, it seems like any stadium would have a tough time matching up. The only think that I can really say about Kentucky’s Commonwealth Stadium is that it’s nice to see one of the commonwealths in the country share some pride in the rare distinction of being a commonwealth in a nation called the United States. Not every commonwealth is as forthcoming about this as KY. For example, why is there a college called Penn State when Pennsylvania is a commonwealth? Also, for all you students out their, you can always annoy people, such as unsuspecting civics teachers who should know this sort of thing, by asking them if they can name the four commonwealths in the U.S. Try it, it’s good fun.

The Game: It should be pretty obvious. And know I’m not going to tell you what the other two commonwealths are; you have to look them up yourself.

The Prediction: Clemson- 28 Kentucky- 17

NBA Pay Scale 2006- Top Tier

Top Tier

This section examines those basketball players with definite proven worth. They are the stars with strong market value and/or the balers who make their teams great. If you ever hear about one of these players becoming a free agent or getting offered up as trade bait, you hold out hope that your team will land them. Setting themselves apart from the Lowlights and Middlings, these are the players that earn major dollars because they make major dollars, doing the two things NBA teams value above all else: winning games and selling tickets. If you want the rules are back here.

50. Zydrunis Ilgauskas:

What he earned- $11.23 Million

What he was paid- $8.7 Million

What he’s worth- $9 Million

The oft-mocked, easily dismissed, hard to understand (both on the court and in interviews) Zydrunis Ilgauskas finds himself among the best players in the league on this list. It’s a little startling to realize that Cleveland has another star on the roster besides LeBron, but when you look at the facts it’s almost impossible to deny. Ilgauskas has attained his substantial value not by posting up huge numbers (anyone familiar with his stat lines knows he’s not a traditionally dominant center). Yet he remains one of the few consistent quality centers in the association. With the pool of competent big men still at depressingly shallow levels, those teams with strong centers need to respect the value they have in the low post. Even without the nationwide appeal of LeBron, Big Z still has a very loyal and dedicated fan base in Cleveland he’s cultivated over his many years with the Cavaliers. Having a suitably respected second star makes a significant difference for NBA front offices. Imagine this situation. Some fan in Ohio walks into the sports shop at his local mall with a roll of money in his pocket that he plans to burn on an official NBA jersey from his favorite team. When he sees that the number 23 is all sold out, the fact that the Cavs have Zydrunis on their team is the difference between that fan racking up another jersey purchase or walking out the store looking for another way to spend his money. Imagine that situation repeated several thousand times and you understand how Ilgauskas earns a modest boost in pay.

49. Channing Frye:

What he earned- $5.95 Million

What he was paid- $2.2 Million

What he’s worth- $9.01 Million

I put the Pay Scale rating of Frye at just over $9 million as a rough estimate. It can be very hard to predict future success off of a player’s performance in her rookie season. In Frye’s case the whole situation is complicated by Larry Brown, who refused to give his star rookie consistent minutes. I don’t know if anyone has a clear idea of where Frye’s potential could take him, but than I remembered he plays for the New York Knicks. There is no limit to the amount of money the Knicks should pour into Frye’s bank account. Whatever amount of money it takes to keep their good young player in NY and happy the Knicks should gladly pay him, or the team has no future at all.

48. Speedy Claxton:

What he earned- $7.46 Million

What he was paid- $3.6 Million

What he’s worth- $9.02 Million

Here’s a player who has all the makings of a hot property and no one believes me when I tell them this. A few factors, I offer for your consideration. 1) He started his NBA grooming on two NBA teams that went to the playoffs, including one that won the NBA championship. 2) He’s been a journeyman for pretty much his whole career which helps him develop the ability to play in any system and also clouds his value since no particular fans don’t get used to hearing about his accomplishments on any given team. 3) He is about to enter his prime as a player. 4) He played a crucial role in the Hornet’s miracle return last season. If the Hawks, his latest team, hold onto him he could become a leader to take them the playoffs. I think he’s the next Sam Cassell waiting to happen.

47. Jason Richardson:

What he earned- $13.9 Million

What he was paid- $8.9 Million

What he’s worth- $9.05 Million

Easily the best player on Golden States roster, Richardson will pay off big if they take care of him. I think who could become a top 25 player and consistent all-star with the right combination of development and luck. This is all based on my assumption that Don Nelson won’t try to force his system on the Warriors and try to make Richardson into something he’s not.

46. Andre Iguodala:

What he earned- $10.83 Million

What he was paid- $2.1 Million

What he’s worth- $9.1 Million

First, he has to shake this whole “The Other AI” nickname. No player should have to be tagged with someone else’s nickname especially a player that is still in the league, especially someone on his team, especially someone who has made as much of an impact on the franchise and the city as Allen Iverson. His real name is unique and interesting so he wouldn’t normally need a nickname, but his last name is just a little too tricky to pronounce to ever catch on as a stand alone with the media. I propose we all start calling him the Iguanodon. What you don’t like that? Well I don’t see you coming up with any ideas. Anyways …

Iguodala has all the tools to become a powerful defender/enforcer for a team that needs to protect their best scorer to stay in contention. Fortunately he just happens to play for such a team and they do seem to understand his value. Unfortunately being a great defender larger relies on the effort that you put into it. Philly has such a bad psychology at this point, as a city and a team, with the front office making ridiculous commitments to their aging stars that it’s a wonder Iguodala puts in any effort at all. Normally this would be a situation where a player would seek a change of scenery to revitalize their spirits. Since the 76er’s will want to keep him though, they’re likely to offer him a nice pay raise to try and recapture his lost passion.

45. Luol Deng:

What he earned- $9.6 Million

What he was paid- $2.4 Million

What he’s worth- $9.25 Million

I have a lot of faith in Luol to develop into the best Duke player in the NBA since Grant Hill (okay, maybe we can think of a better role model for his career. He can make an impact on both sides of the court and more complete game than most second year players have. I don’t want to jinx him by heaping on too much praise. Here’s hoping the Bulls prove to be the caliber of team they’re predicted to be, so Deng’s profile will rise and his value will appreciate.

44. Nedad Krstic:

What he earned- $9.53 Million

What he was paid- $1.0 Million

What he’s worth- $9.5 Million

Here’s the truth straight out –Krstic’s current value is hard to evaluate at this point, and it may take a few seasons to figure out. A players who has a breakout season like Krstic did last year, is difficult to judge, because she may have gotten lucky, it may be a fuke, or she may be truly skilled. A player who is surrounded with quality teammates like Krstic has in Jason Kidd, Richard Jefferson, and Vince Carter can’t be clearly measured, because it’s hard to separate her individual accomplishments from the help she received from her peers. A player from a foreign country like Krstic is really tricky to predict, since her employers don’t have as much accurate background information on her performance on which to estimate here future performance. Overall it leads me to believe that while Krstic may have proven himself to be capable of significant on court contributions, his team can’t bet their future on his potential. He could turn out to be the next Nowitski, or he could be just another anonymous foreign player. For the moment I imagine the Nets will only pay him as much as the next Vlad Divac, and it’ll be hard to say for certain whether that was a smart move or not.

43. Amare Stoudemire:

What he earned- $10,000

What he was paid- $2.6 Million

What he’s worth- $9.51 Million

More than any other player on this list Amare has an unpredictable future in front of him. There have been few players to make such an impressive showing early in their careers as Amare did two seasons ago. There are even fewer players who have had to come back from extensive surgery to reclaim that greatness. Trying to put a price tag on any player’s value is always a crap shoot, but as anyone who knows gambling can tell you, craps is one of the only casino games where the odds favor the smart player over the house. Bidding on Stoudemire’s contract is less like making a calculated gamble in a casino for the Phoenix Suns and more of like purchasing futures on the stock exchange. Still if you take the odds of Amare reaching his ceiling and multiply it by the dollar value a player like that would have, you still wind up with a fairly high number. I’m not sure what it is exactly but for the sake of the Pay Scale I’ll estimate it as being just a little higher than “the next Vlad Divac”.

42. Josh Howard:

What he earned- $8.61 Million

What he was paid- $900,000

What he’s worth- $9.52 Million

Following the Finals, a lot of analysis dissected how poor the officiating was, how unstoppable Dwayne Wade was, how unstable the Heat’s roster was, how angry Mark Cuban was. In all of that no one ever explained where Josh Howard was. He had been a huge difference maker in the regular season and should be entering his peak years. Yet when his team needed him most his production seriously declined. The Heat and the Mavs were close enough that if Howard had played up to his full potential, they might have won. The Mavs need to pay Josh good money to retain his production, but there’s no reason to go crazy. He’s just a notch above the other guys getting paid mostly for their potential.

41. Ron Artest:

What he earned- $8.46 Million

What he was paid- $6.8 Million

What he’s worth- $9.6 Million

Until Ron-Ron’s rap career takes off we’re stuck with him trying to earn a living in the NBA. I think it should be obvious by now that Ron Artest is the new version of Dennis Rodman. They both make a huge impact even when they don’t have the ball, but they both can kill your team through mental lapses and bad locker room chemistry. They both a worth a sizeable contract, but a smart team would make most of that based on incentives. Artest with the Pacers was like Rodman with Detroit. Now that he’s with Sacramento he’s turning into Rodman during his Spurs years. That means Artest could have some “Rodman as a Bull” years in front of him, but also some more nutty episodes too. Watch out for Ron to take on more of Rodman’s style as his career continues. In fact if I could I would lay money on Artest’s hair changing color at least once this season.

40. Alonzo Mourning:

What he earned- $7.44 Million

What he was paid- $1.1 Million

What he’s worth- $9.75 Million

Basic etiquette should stipulate that any player who makes a major contribution to winning a championship should get some kind of pay raise. Of course I’m calling for a pretty massive raise so I should explain myself. ‘Zo has earned major money for several reasons. First he was clearly the third best player last year, but he did it for a twelfth man’s wages, that commitment has to be rewarded. Second for as much as Dwayne Wade is the Heat’s best player and Shaq is their public face, Mourning is the team’s emotional leader and the key to giving them energy in the middle of slow games. Third, now that Shaq’s gotten nothing left to prove Alonzo will definitely be carrying more of a load down on South Beach. Fourth his pay is artificially low be cause he forced his way out of a high paying contract to get onto a championship contender. Finally this is a player who has come back from a major kidney illness. His team knows that his health is an issue, but he’s already come out of the worst. Everyone knows that the time he spent in IR after being traded to Toronto was less than legit, so he doesn’t really have any recent history of problems. Surely no one can play the “we don’t know how much more career he has left” card. He has about as much career left as any other player his age, and under the Pay Scale method he would be paid as much as any other player who has accomplished what he has.

39. Brad Miller:

What he earned- $11.23 Million

What he was paid- $8.8 Million

What he’s worth- $10 Million

Sacramento’s front office will find it hard to put a dollar value on Miller. He never dominated a game. He always plays efficiently. He’s reached the decline phase of his career. He’s one of the few centers you can really rely on anymore. For all the he has to offer a team, in the current market he’s worth at least $10 million.

38. Boris Diaw:

What he earned- $11.78 Million

What he was paid- $1.1 Million

What he’s worth- $10.05 Million

Of course a lot of his value may be dependent on playing with Steve Nash in the Suns super-speed offense. In every other system of rating players that would lead to someone to drop Diaw lower down the ladder because they would have to grade him “independently” of his teammates and players. In the Pay Scale method I try to fairly evaluate how much a player is worth within his current situation. I don’t think anyone believes Diaw would be as good without Nash, Marion, and Stoudemire around him. Since he does have them around him he is easily a top level production player, plus an easy way for the Suns to get a foothold in the European market. Every other team wants to play offense like the Suns and everyone want a bigger international presence, which is only going to ensure Diaw draws a hefty contract.

37. Marcus Camby:

What he earned- $7.61 Million

What he was paid- $9.2 Million

What he’s worth- $10.25 Million

Already well compensated, Marcus Camby may not have been an obvious candidate to earn a pay raise. He has been effective and efficient as a center, just never dominant. In this era though, when all the best big men play power forward, though, the market is going to keep driving the price of quality centers up. Also, he proved to serve a vital function in Denver’s overall scheme. He clears the board and carries more than his fair share on the defensive end. If the Nuggets hold onto him he’s bound to develop enough fan loyalty to earn his extra million.

36. Kirk Hinrich:

What he earned- $6.58 Million

What he was paid- $2.5 Million

What he’s worth- $10.26 Million

In case you Bulls fans haven’t had enough bad news I’m just going to remind you of another top level player that merits big money. In the ideal market reflected in the Pay Scale method, Kirk would have been given $10+ million to lock down one of Chicago’s best hopes for the future. Of course that wouldn’t account for giving Ben Wallace a boat load of money, would it. Nope. Now instead of capturing and exciting young player with an established fan base from his college days and a lot of marketability, the Bulls have a post-prime center with no offensive tools and a quirky personality. Sorry I promised I wouldn’t say anymore about it. Suffice to say Bulls fans and execs will wish they could pay Hinrich the boatload of money and Big Ben the artificially low salary pretty soon.

35. Jason Terry:

What he earned- $11.89 Million

What he was paid- $6.7 Million

What he’s worth- $10.95 Million

Jet is a tremendous player, and just the kind of secondary offensive threat the Maverick’s needed to reach the finals. Since no one disagrees with his value (at least as far as I’ve heard), I wanted to spend a little time looking into an interesting phenomenon that Jason Terry demonstrates. Given the number of players whose careers have gone to another level after leaving the Atlanta Hawks, and given that it’s becoming increasingly clear that Michael Vick was a much better quarterback with Virginia Tech than he is with the Atlanta Falcons, isn’t just possible that there’s something about the city of Atlanta itself that draws down people’s ability to perform? If that is the case, how far does this extend? If Ludacris moved to Chicago would he jump Kanye, Eminem, and Jay-Z as a rap artist? If Adult Swim relocated to New York would they become the best rated programming block on TV? These are the questions that keep me up at night.

34. Richard Jefferson:

What he earned- $15.15 Million

What he was paid- $13.8 Million

What he’s worth- $ 10.99 Million

RJ is easily the third best player on the Nets. His history with injury problems and shakey clutch performance has made it clear he’s a little overpaid right now. Still how can a team looking to supplant the Knicks as New York’s premier basketball team really lowball one of their most productive and most marketable players. The Nets would probably edge him off a little, keeping him just under $11 mil to send a message.

33. Michael Bibby:

What he earned- $9.02 Million

What he was paid- $11.5 Million

What he’s worth- $11 Million

At some point during the off season the Sacramento executives must have looked at their roster and asked “How many players do we have that can comfortably and consistently make plays and lead the team on the floor?” When the answer came back just “Just Bibby”, do you think they swore because they were shocked at how far they’ve fallen or because they were resigned to there new position? Bibby may still have the advantage over most point guards in the Association. However, the Kings team is pretty much condemned to the realm of “we’ll make the bottom of the playoff brackets and we’ll have to try and win just enough games to land that favorable match-up against either a soft division winner or a to-seed with a lousy homecourt”. The most you can offer a player in a situation like that just a little under max money. After all it’s not like you seriously need/will get his maximum effort anyways.

32. Tracy McGrady:

What he earned- $9.36 Million

What he was paid- $15.7 Million

What he’s worth- $11,000,001

Frankly, I think it is astonishing McGrady even earned $9 million last season. Plagued with injuries, he’s seemed to lack consistency when he has played. He hasn’t been getting into the kind of grooves you used to see where he could just like up the scoreboard and lay down a few weeks worth of games where he was just the model of efficiency. Maybe he still hasn’t gotten used to sharing the ball and not having to save the team single handedly every time he takes the court. This summer I read some very revealing information that made it seem like Tracy McGrady was the best young player the NBA had ever seen. Of course he’s not turning into much of a veteran player so you have to take that with a grain of salt. I know the Rockets can’t value T-Mac at much more than $11 million, but they also know lots of teams would snatch him up for just a little less the $11 mil. Consider the extra dollar on the end a symbol of some small amount the Rockets pay to keep Tracy out of reach of any of their competitors, at least for now.

31. Manu Ginobli:

What he earned- $10.95 Million

What he was paid- $7.4 Million

What he’s worth- $11.2 Million

After watching the NBA playoff last season, I was prepared to predict that Ginobli would take a pay cut for his boneheaded foul of Dirk Nowitski in the closing minutes of game 7 of the series between the Spurs and Mavs. Since that one mistake was just about all it took to keep the Spurs from progressing to play an easily beatable Suns team and possibly the Miami Mercenari-er, I mean, Heat in the NBA Finals -when Dwayne Wade was about the only thing keeping that team from collapsing- you have to figure the Spurs front office would take some kind of punitive action. Then I remembered that with Tim Duncan at 60% for most of the season, Ginobli was one of the main reasons the Spurs even got the top seed in the Western Conference, let alone to game 7 in the second round. Also the more success Manu has in the NBA, the more his team should have to add on top of his contract, so he can set aside something for the inevitable kidnapping of one of his family members. In fact, maybe this should become a standard part of any foreign player’s contract.

30. Jason Kidd:

What he earned- $14.58 Million

What he was paid- $16.4 Million

What he’s worth- $11.25 Million

Jason Kidd just continues to amaze me. Last year I prepared for the worst as he had to overcome the triple whammy of trying to put together a full season after a bad injury, entering the decline phase of his career, and watching his window of opportunity for a championship slip away. He already has landed the big money contract that will pay for his retirement. In fact if Kidds current contract hadn’t been negotiated with the Nets when he was at his strongest and they were at their most vulnerable, there is no way his success at the time would have earned him tens of millions of dollars before 2010. The franchise was now in Vince Carter’s hands, and the future of the team once they move to Brooklyn was on the planning table. Kidd had nothing left to prove, and nothing left to fight for. I was all set to see a serious decline in both his production and his effort. He absolutely stunned me by not only looking like the Jason Kidd of old, but bringing great defense to compensate for his waning offense. Here is a player who is worth a major contract, just not the oodles of dollars he’s earning now.

29. Dwight Howard:

What he earned- $10.98 Million

What he was paid- $4.5 Million

What he’s worth- $11.5 Million

This one is a total no-brainer. Howard is the best bet the NBA has right now to become the next dominant center. He absolutely has earned his keep on the court. He already has Orlando on the verge of playoff contention. Plus, he’s the most marketable star the Magic have had since Shaq and He-Who-Shall-Not-Be-Named Hardaway. The Magic will absolutely cough up a big wad of cash rather than lose the rights to Dwight. (By the way, has anyone else found it out that two of the hottest young stars in the league are named Dwayne and Dwight? Do either of those names scream basketball greatness to you? Wouldn’t it be cool if we could get them on the same team as Derrick Coleman, just to hear broadcast announcers say “Dwayne passes inside to Dwight. Dwight passes back Dwewick. Oh, cwap!”)

28. Andre Kirilenko:

What he earned- $15.5 Million

What he was paid- $11 Million

What he’s worth- $11.75 Million

Naturally the Jazz can’t cough up really big money until they have some assurances that AK’s teammates will be healthy and the franchise can expect some competitive success. With that in mind last year the Jazz were pretty awful as a team, but Kirilenko managed to get a huge amount of publicity for himself and the team just the same. Granted that was largely due details of an agreement between he and his wife that AK-47 gets one free extramarital “indiscretion” a year with no repercussions from her becoming public. You can’t tell me that kind of story couldn’t be spun into some kind of marketing advantage. You know the single people in your life who have little “celebration rituals” for when they get a little somethin’ somethin’. Oh, shut up, you know that guy! Imagine if Utah could start a viral marketing campaign based on the idea of people like that. They would call getting away with some side action a “Kirilenko”, and wear one of his jerseys the day after an “extracurricular” encounter. (BTW: In no way am I encouraging this stuff, especially not extramarital affairs, I am just noting that it goes on and the Utah Jazz could get a little boost from it.)

27. Shawn Marion:

What he earned- $15.49 Million

What he was paid- $13.7 Million

What he’s worth- $11.9 Million

Marion will always have a place in my heart for inspiring my official rap anthem for my fantasy basketball draft in 2003. Specifically his fantasy proficiency, and my refusal to buy into LeBron James at that point combined to inspire the lyrics, “Pump it up if you came to get it on/ If your name is not LeBron / It’s Marion comma Shawn /Pump it up if stats are just your thing/ you can do anything/ dunks, dimes, and blocking”. Obviously I have no future as an MC. Equally obviously Marion can’t seem to shake the allegation that his impressive performance so far, including all those sexy fantasy stats, are mostly the product of playing with exceptional teammates. I don’t necessarily agree with this, in fact the “earned” salary above from 82games.com suggests something else entirely. As long as the Phoenix front office has that modicum of doubt though, I expect they will roll back Marion’s paycheck to reward some of his teammates a little more.

26. Tayshaun Prince:

What he earned- $15.92 Million

What he was paid- $1.8 Million

What he’s worth- $11.95 Million

If I grant you that Tayshaun is dangerously close to following in Ben Wallace’s footsteps as being “the players who gets mentioned as ‘underrated’ so many times he eventually becomes overrated”, will you grant me that at least in the last season he played above his current pay by as much of a margin as almost anyone in the association. I had the good fortune of watching a lot of Pistons games last season, and he was a sight to be seen. It was obvious how much he mattered to that team. I am convinced that if Tayshaun had only played up to the level of his paycheck , then the Pistons would have been a shadow of what they were last season, and the Heat would have probably finished as the top seed in the East. Remember that as a handy counterexample the nest time someone tries to tell you the NBA is full of players with bad attitudes who don’t care about winning the games. The Pistons last year were a high performance machine and Prince was their fuel. The only players who merit more money than him are The Stars.

NBA Pay Scale 2006- The Middlings

The Middlings

This section of the Pay Scale accounts for those ballers who have definite value, just not tons of it. Make no mistake most of these cats can play, and a lot of them have a touch of star level marketability too. In fact, I pretty much based the cut off for this list at those players who are no worse than an NBA 6^th man. However whatever skills these players possess and whatever marquee value their name may carry, none of them are worth top level, possible All-Star, money. Some of these players have been overpaid; some have been underpaid. All of them are worth at least a decent offer from their team.

Just a reminder the rules are here, and be sure to read up on the Lowlights, too.

180. Mehmet Okur:

What he earned- $10.69 Million

What he was paid- $8.3 Million

What he’s worth- $1 Million

For a few years I thought Okur was undervalued as a basketball player, and the stats from 82games.com, seem to indicate as much. As much as I like the fact that a bulk, awkward white guy with a unibrow is holding his own in the Association, it’s become clear that he’s quickly losing market value. His physical prowess may have already peaked. Though he’s developed a better offensive skill set since moving to Utah, he still was clearly worth more as a big defensive body back when the rules favored a more physical game. Now that light, quick shooters who can penetrate the paint are more valuable with the current rules, it’s very likely that Mehmet will find himself spending more time on the bench as teams start picking up the new Euro players who are designed for this kind of play. It’s sad really Okur came into the NBA just as style of play changed from something he was suited for to a game that fits him about as well as Dancing with the Stars suited Tucker Carlson. Still every once in awhile teams need a big body to get some defensive stops. So I imagine Okur is still worth at least a cool mill, which is like 5.7 trillion in Turkish lira.

178. Andre Miller:

What he earned- $9.55 Million

What he was paid- $8.1 Million

What he’s worth- $1.25 Million

As a relatively productive starter, the Nuggets won’t want to part with him or offend him, for fear of upsetting the delicate nucleus they’ve formed around Melo. However it’s become pretty clear that his best is behind him, and the Nuggets would rather be focusing their money on their underpaid center piece than some overpriced role player.

170. Gerald Wallace:

What he earned- $8.84 Million

What he was paid- $5 Million

What he’s worth- $1.5 Million

Here’s a hugely underrated player. He never got a fair chance back when he played for some crowded Sacramento Kings’ teams. Then he gets shipped to Charlotte where he may have become the Bobcats’ best player. A knee injury last season hid the fact that he was blossoming both offensively and defensively. Now the Bobcats will have a hard time relying on him to make significant contributions, especially when they want to give their more marketable young stars more minutes (and money). This guy has demonstrated Scottie Pippen level promise, but he may never get a chance to fulfill it. Gerald Wallace is underpaid and underappreciated in the NBA , sadly I don’t see that changing any time soon. This is a tough pay cut for a man who deserves better.

(P.S. Keep this on the DL, but here’s hoping the Cavaliers find a way to land him, and he and LeBron get a chance to take things to that next level.)

165. Zach Randolph:

What he earned- $6.5 Million

What he was paid- $10.7 Million

What he’s worth- $1.63 Million

Randolph does still have the potential to become a gritty, tough forward. The kind of reliable vet teams can keep on the bench and depend on to eat up some minutes. At this point Portland has made it clear that’s all they expect out of him anymore. With the Trailblazers’ youth movement on the horizon, it’s clear they want a lot less of their money sunk into Randolph. Plus you have to believe that starting your career for the Jailblazers these last few years has to have been the basketball equivalent of starting high school in remedial classes. You can go onto become a decent student and that’s considered a success, but you can probably kiss your chances of becoming valedictorian goodbye.

158. Gary Payton:

What he earned- $1.02 Million

What he was paid- $1.1 Million

What he’s worth- $1.75 Million

Some of you may find this shocking, but I am calling for a pay increase for Gary Payton. That’s right. I think Gary over-the-hill, nothing-left-to-prove, bad-chemistry-guy Payton deserves more money. First remember that it’s not that much more money, only about 1/10^th of what the Knicks paid Jamal Crawford. Second, for all his supposed flaws last season he actually earned his keep and helped Miami win a championship. In my book that kind of player should get a little reward. Finally, now that Shaq’s proven all he needs to, Dwayne Wade has reached megastar status, and most of the other teammates have finally won the ring they’ve wanted for so long, complacency is bound to set in. That’s exactly why you need a cranky, unpredictable GP on your roster to keep everyone on their toes and the title defense alive.

147. Eddie Jones:

What he earned- $8.12 Million

What he was paid- $14.6 Million

What he’s worth- $2 Million

Eddie has been a useful swingman for multiple teams and can probably learn to work in a lot of different systems. However the market value for Eddie has never really matched his salary. Now that Memphis has his contract and they are absolutely swimming in capable players, I think they try and get a bargain out of a player with limited remaining shelf life and their for limited potential earning power.

132. Antoine Walker:

What he earned- $3.64 Million

What he was paid- $6.9 Million

What he’s worth- $2.25 Million

Once again I’m willing to bet the Miami Heat would agree with 82games.com that Walker has earned somewhere between $3-4 million. However I also think they will deduct serious cash for all of those bricks he throws up where even retirees in the Miami stands can tell have no prayer. Also, do you really want to cough up $4 mill for a guy who was such an after thought in the NBA finals.

99. Peja Stojakovic:

What he earned- $6.58 Million

What he was paid- $7.5 Million

What he’s worth- $2.8 Million

Here’s a player who hurt his value by moving in the off season. Peja proved his ability as a scoring threat with the Pacers then moved to New Orleans. The Hornets definitely won’t put too much money into Peja since they obviously want to focus on Chris Paul. Also, Peja could never really create his own shot, so he’ll have a hard time demonstrating his value to the team independent of Paul’s brilliant point guard play.

98. Mike James:

What he earned- $9.62 Million

What he was paid- $3.4 Million

What he’s worth- $2.85 Million

No NBA team will pay someone who’s already 31 years old and never was an All-Star caliber player, no matter how well they play. That’s the simple and sad truth that will keep Mike James from getting paid his due.

83. Delonte West:

What he earned- $7.73 Million

What he was paid- $1 Million

What he’s worth- $3.15 Million

If you’re surprised to see Delonte West rated so highly here, then that means two things. One, Bill Simmons has apparently not been endlessly piling on the love for this particular young Celtic –or, at least, I haven’t been the only one tuning him out when his Boston homerism kicks in. Second, that the Pay Scale method is doing its job by raising the profile of some players with hidden value. Here’s a great young player who’s starting to develop some killer scoring power, and only needs o improve his defense a little to become a true star. The Boston execs want to protect their promising young talent, so they’ll triple his pay, and still get him for a bargain.

80. Rashard Lewis:

What he earned- $8 Million

What he was paid- $8.6 Million

What he’s worth- $3.25 Million

This one feels a little odd placing Rashard at this point in the Pay Scale. Everything I know about statistical analysis of basketball tells me that Rashard, while dominating the traditional stats, definitely earns his keep. His skills, defense, rebounding, and presence on the court, subtly and certainly tilt many factors in favor of his team. I also know that the Seattle Sonics respect a player’s value outside of the traditional stats. They worked with the Godfather of Basketball Stats Dean Oliver after all. So I believe he deserves a higher slot. I know he won’t get a better deal because the Sonics realize most other teams won’t respect his value. They are always looking for a bargain and they’ll risk insulting Lewis to guarantee they have more money available for other players.

79. Cuttino Mobley:

What he earned- $7.62 Million

What he was paid- $7.2 Million

What he’s worth- $3.3 Million

We’ve reached kind of a sad stretch here. Mobley will be one more player I value at significantly less than both his current earnings and their objective earnings from last season, and he won’t be the last. I blame this on a few things. First, you have to remember that ownership considers current salaries to be greatly exaggerated as a result of several (in their opinion) regrettable collective bargaining agreements. Second, front offices would rather overpay top talent -because they know everyone else would shell out a lot of money for them too, if given the chance- and underpay the rest -because they know the other teams only pay top dollar for role players when they’re forced too. A lot of front office execs have a sense of how valuable these players truly are, but for many of them they couldn’t demonstrate that value with enough certainty to justify the cost to ownership. This also makes it hard for background players to demand much more during contract negotiations. Third, keep in mind the marquee players whose names sell merchandise and boost season ticket sales are going to draw bigger paychecks, because their marketability pays for a portion of their contract. If you can’t recognize a player’s face from a commercial you might as well cut $3 million off their current salary, because as far as ownership is concerned it would just be money wasted on a bad investment. Fourth, the old adage of past performance being no indicator of future success is in play here. These players may have done remarkably well last season and they’ll try and raise expectations that they can do it again next season, if the price is right. The teams however are conditioned to always limit their expectations, and lowball the offered money accordingly. After all, a great season could be the sign of a blossoming star or a fluke. Finally, this is still a zero sum game. Now team can afford to dump endless piles of money on their entire roster. So they will hold back the big money from their supporting players to save some up for the stars. Sorry to take such a detour, but I thought it was important I clarify why my Pay Scale ratings seem to devalue so many players. Anyways. . .

Cuttino Mobley has found himself on a suddenly successful team –the Los Angeles Clippers- who are trying to find ways to improve themselves that don’t seem to focus on him very much –give more minutes to young players, shy away from score first players with some habits that make them a bit unreliable. Basically Elgin Baylor has spent the last several months sending Cuttino the signal “We like you and you’re great, but we aren’t married to you or anything.” Basically they want to keep him but only at half his current capacity, so they’ll try to get him at about half price.

77. Rasheed Wallace:

What he earned- $13.59 Million

What he was paid- $10.9 Million

What he’s worth- $3.5 Million

Rasheed’s stock as a player has slowly declined after suddenly peaking with the Pistons’ championship season. His production last year largely derived from the fact that Detroit’s energy, focus, and chemistry as a team were off the charts, up until the playoffs that is. The starting rotation was playing the best team basketball Rasheed could ever hope to play in. Of course now that the Ben Wallace has left, that unit is a shell of it’s former self. I don’t know how anyone can expect ‘Sheed to replicate his performance of the last few year when he will draw the attention of the opponent’s toughest big man, and has to create space for himself in the low post. Plus, you have to consider the fact that the new rule banning players from complaining about the officials on court is sure to limit ‘Sheed’s value. He may give up as much as a third of the points he produces in cheap technicals this season. So with all these factors working against him, count on Detroit offering Rasheed a serious pay cut.

72. Caron Butler:

What he earned- $7.88 Million

What he was paid- $2.5 Million

What he’s worth- $4 Million

Butler’s one of those players who made the most of his situation and should be rightly rewarded. Forced to start the season on the bench by the Wizards, Butler really turned a corner in his career. He finally established himself as a reliable scorer and positive court presence. Since he still has multiple good years in him, he could provide Washington with a sold piece in their Gilbert Arenas fueled machine especially as Antwan Jamison and Antonio Daniels. This is another fine young player capable of serving his team well into the future that the Wizards will definitely find worthy of more money.

64. Wally Szczerbiak:

What he earned- $9.23 Million

What he was paid- $10 Million

What he’s worth- $4.5 Million

Wally’s major weakness is his lack of marketability. Normally when a player has been consistently productive whenever he plays, everyone would be okay with him drawing big money. In this case Wally has to shoulder the unenviable cross of being labeled a “white stiff”, plus he has to convince everyone he’s gotten over the injury bug that limited him in the past. Those are two big factors that will normally limit your contract. Worst of all though nobody wants to buy a jersey with “Szczerbiak” written on the back.

60. Shane Battier:

What he earned- $10.54 Million

What he was paid- $4.9 Million

What he’s worth- $5 Million

Battier is one of my favorite players and has proven he’s a reliable swingman with many underappreciated skills. Even on a team full of reliable swingmen with underappreciated skills, Shane has stood out as one of the major reasons for Memphis’s success. Let’s boost his pay a little, because he has certainly earned it.

58. Lamar Odom:

What he earned- $12.09 Million

What he was paid- $11.5 Million

What he’s worth- $6 Million

Odom has the odd habit of performing his best when Kobe Bryant is out of the Lakers’ lineup. This is great since he’s clearly demonstrating his value as L.A.’s second banana. Though in the eyes of Jerry Buss and the Lakers’ front office I can see how that’s not so great. Why should a team designed around feeding Kobe the ball pay top dollar for a player who plays worse when he has to support No. 8 No. 24. In his efforts to prove himself as a star in his own right, Lamar may have just hustled himself out of a bigger contract. (Not that anyone in the purple and gold could have worked themselves into a better deal, since Jerry will take ever opportunity he gets to give Kobe more money.)

55. Antwan Jamison:

What he earned- $15.15 Million

What he was paid- $13.8 Million

What he’s worth- $7 Million

Antwan Jamison is another player of which I’m a fan. As a journey man who takes more of a workman like approach to the game, he often gets undervalued. He’ll likely be undervalued once again, as the Wizards assume he’s 1) past his prime, and 2) not an essential member of Gilbert Arenas’ supporting cast. After all if he doesn’t like the offer he can just move to another teams, by now he should be used to it.

53. Ben Gordon:

What he earned- $6.79 Million

What he was paid- $3.6 Million

What he’s worth- $7.5 Million

Here’s player who has to draw top dollar, not just on potential, but because he is just the sort of weapon most NBA teams lack. Since Pat Riley and the Knicks turned each basketball game into a 3-hour-long-grind fest, most franchises have focused on big guys, and bangers who slow down the game and suck all the energy out of the arena by the second half. Now the Chicago Bulls finally have a response to reverse all that. With Ben Gordon you can give your team boost , force the tempo up a little and pour in an additional points in the half to push your team to the next level. Let me put it this way Gordon had, by general consensus, a sophomore slump last season. Yet even at a reduced value he played well enough to earn nearly twice his current salary. The Pay Scale rewards hot young players with a strong future in front of them, because they are the players owners love to market and build teams around. Gordon is just their kind of guy.

51. Ben Wallace:

What he earned- $14.26 Million

What he was paid- $7.5 Million

What he’s worth- $8 Million

I had a great argument prepared about Ben Wallace and why teams should avoid overpaying him. I had a lot of stats to show that he could improve a team but not as much as a max money player. I would have explained the same thing I did in my comment on Rasheed Wallace, how the Piston’s system last year greatly boosted the starting five’s value past a point you could ever get them to play at again. I was going to show that no team could risk taking on a center with his limited offense on, especially as he leaves his prime, unless they know they can surround him with four other above average scorers. Then the Chicago Bulls went and paid him a boatload of money. I have nothing more to say about this, except that in a sane and rational basketball market Ben Wallace would never belong with the players in the Top Tier.