Monday, December 18, 2006

NBA Pay Scale 2006- Top Tier

Top Tier

This section examines those basketball players with definite proven worth. They are the stars with strong market value and/or the balers who make their teams great. If you ever hear about one of these players becoming a free agent or getting offered up as trade bait, you hold out hope that your team will land them. Setting themselves apart from the Lowlights and Middlings, these are the players that earn major dollars because they make major dollars, doing the two things NBA teams value above all else: winning games and selling tickets. If you want the rules are back here.

50. Zydrunis Ilgauskas:

What he earned- $11.23 Million

What he was paid- $8.7 Million

What he’s worth- $9 Million

The oft-mocked, easily dismissed, hard to understand (both on the court and in interviews) Zydrunis Ilgauskas finds himself among the best players in the league on this list. It’s a little startling to realize that Cleveland has another star on the roster besides LeBron, but when you look at the facts it’s almost impossible to deny. Ilgauskas has attained his substantial value not by posting up huge numbers (anyone familiar with his stat lines knows he’s not a traditionally dominant center). Yet he remains one of the few consistent quality centers in the association. With the pool of competent big men still at depressingly shallow levels, those teams with strong centers need to respect the value they have in the low post. Even without the nationwide appeal of LeBron, Big Z still has a very loyal and dedicated fan base in Cleveland he’s cultivated over his many years with the Cavaliers. Having a suitably respected second star makes a significant difference for NBA front offices. Imagine this situation. Some fan in Ohio walks into the sports shop at his local mall with a roll of money in his pocket that he plans to burn on an official NBA jersey from his favorite team. When he sees that the number 23 is all sold out, the fact that the Cavs have Zydrunis on their team is the difference between that fan racking up another jersey purchase or walking out the store looking for another way to spend his money. Imagine that situation repeated several thousand times and you understand how Ilgauskas earns a modest boost in pay.

49. Channing Frye:

What he earned- $5.95 Million

What he was paid- $2.2 Million

What he’s worth- $9.01 Million

I put the Pay Scale rating of Frye at just over $9 million as a rough estimate. It can be very hard to predict future success off of a player’s performance in her rookie season. In Frye’s case the whole situation is complicated by Larry Brown, who refused to give his star rookie consistent minutes. I don’t know if anyone has a clear idea of where Frye’s potential could take him, but than I remembered he plays for the New York Knicks. There is no limit to the amount of money the Knicks should pour into Frye’s bank account. Whatever amount of money it takes to keep their good young player in NY and happy the Knicks should gladly pay him, or the team has no future at all.

48. Speedy Claxton:

What he earned- $7.46 Million

What he was paid- $3.6 Million

What he’s worth- $9.02 Million

Here’s a player who has all the makings of a hot property and no one believes me when I tell them this. A few factors, I offer for your consideration. 1) He started his NBA grooming on two NBA teams that went to the playoffs, including one that won the NBA championship. 2) He’s been a journeyman for pretty much his whole career which helps him develop the ability to play in any system and also clouds his value since no particular fans don’t get used to hearing about his accomplishments on any given team. 3) He is about to enter his prime as a player. 4) He played a crucial role in the Hornet’s miracle return last season. If the Hawks, his latest team, hold onto him he could become a leader to take them the playoffs. I think he’s the next Sam Cassell waiting to happen.

47. Jason Richardson:

What he earned- $13.9 Million

What he was paid- $8.9 Million

What he’s worth- $9.05 Million

Easily the best player on Golden States roster, Richardson will pay off big if they take care of him. I think who could become a top 25 player and consistent all-star with the right combination of development and luck. This is all based on my assumption that Don Nelson won’t try to force his system on the Warriors and try to make Richardson into something he’s not.

46. Andre Iguodala:

What he earned- $10.83 Million

What he was paid- $2.1 Million

What he’s worth- $9.1 Million

First, he has to shake this whole “The Other AI” nickname. No player should have to be tagged with someone else’s nickname especially a player that is still in the league, especially someone on his team, especially someone who has made as much of an impact on the franchise and the city as Allen Iverson. His real name is unique and interesting so he wouldn’t normally need a nickname, but his last name is just a little too tricky to pronounce to ever catch on as a stand alone with the media. I propose we all start calling him the Iguanodon. What you don’t like that? Well I don’t see you coming up with any ideas. Anyways …

Iguodala has all the tools to become a powerful defender/enforcer for a team that needs to protect their best scorer to stay in contention. Fortunately he just happens to play for such a team and they do seem to understand his value. Unfortunately being a great defender larger relies on the effort that you put into it. Philly has such a bad psychology at this point, as a city and a team, with the front office making ridiculous commitments to their aging stars that it’s a wonder Iguodala puts in any effort at all. Normally this would be a situation where a player would seek a change of scenery to revitalize their spirits. Since the 76er’s will want to keep him though, they’re likely to offer him a nice pay raise to try and recapture his lost passion.

45. Luol Deng:

What he earned- $9.6 Million

What he was paid- $2.4 Million

What he’s worth- $9.25 Million

I have a lot of faith in Luol to develop into the best Duke player in the NBA since Grant Hill (okay, maybe we can think of a better role model for his career. He can make an impact on both sides of the court and more complete game than most second year players have. I don’t want to jinx him by heaping on too much praise. Here’s hoping the Bulls prove to be the caliber of team they’re predicted to be, so Deng’s profile will rise and his value will appreciate.

44. Nedad Krstic:

What he earned- $9.53 Million

What he was paid- $1.0 Million

What he’s worth- $9.5 Million

Here’s the truth straight out –Krstic’s current value is hard to evaluate at this point, and it may take a few seasons to figure out. A players who has a breakout season like Krstic did last year, is difficult to judge, because she may have gotten lucky, it may be a fuke, or she may be truly skilled. A player who is surrounded with quality teammates like Krstic has in Jason Kidd, Richard Jefferson, and Vince Carter can’t be clearly measured, because it’s hard to separate her individual accomplishments from the help she received from her peers. A player from a foreign country like Krstic is really tricky to predict, since her employers don’t have as much accurate background information on her performance on which to estimate here future performance. Overall it leads me to believe that while Krstic may have proven himself to be capable of significant on court contributions, his team can’t bet their future on his potential. He could turn out to be the next Nowitski, or he could be just another anonymous foreign player. For the moment I imagine the Nets will only pay him as much as the next Vlad Divac, and it’ll be hard to say for certain whether that was a smart move or not.

43. Amare Stoudemire:

What he earned- $10,000

What he was paid- $2.6 Million

What he’s worth- $9.51 Million

More than any other player on this list Amare has an unpredictable future in front of him. There have been few players to make such an impressive showing early in their careers as Amare did two seasons ago. There are even fewer players who have had to come back from extensive surgery to reclaim that greatness. Trying to put a price tag on any player’s value is always a crap shoot, but as anyone who knows gambling can tell you, craps is one of the only casino games where the odds favor the smart player over the house. Bidding on Stoudemire’s contract is less like making a calculated gamble in a casino for the Phoenix Suns and more of like purchasing futures on the stock exchange. Still if you take the odds of Amare reaching his ceiling and multiply it by the dollar value a player like that would have, you still wind up with a fairly high number. I’m not sure what it is exactly but for the sake of the Pay Scale I’ll estimate it as being just a little higher than “the next Vlad Divac”.

42. Josh Howard:

What he earned- $8.61 Million

What he was paid- $900,000

What he’s worth- $9.52 Million

Following the Finals, a lot of analysis dissected how poor the officiating was, how unstoppable Dwayne Wade was, how unstable the Heat’s roster was, how angry Mark Cuban was. In all of that no one ever explained where Josh Howard was. He had been a huge difference maker in the regular season and should be entering his peak years. Yet when his team needed him most his production seriously declined. The Heat and the Mavs were close enough that if Howard had played up to his full potential, they might have won. The Mavs need to pay Josh good money to retain his production, but there’s no reason to go crazy. He’s just a notch above the other guys getting paid mostly for their potential.

41. Ron Artest:

What he earned- $8.46 Million

What he was paid- $6.8 Million

What he’s worth- $9.6 Million

Until Ron-Ron’s rap career takes off we’re stuck with him trying to earn a living in the NBA. I think it should be obvious by now that Ron Artest is the new version of Dennis Rodman. They both make a huge impact even when they don’t have the ball, but they both can kill your team through mental lapses and bad locker room chemistry. They both a worth a sizeable contract, but a smart team would make most of that based on incentives. Artest with the Pacers was like Rodman with Detroit. Now that he’s with Sacramento he’s turning into Rodman during his Spurs years. That means Artest could have some “Rodman as a Bull” years in front of him, but also some more nutty episodes too. Watch out for Ron to take on more of Rodman’s style as his career continues. In fact if I could I would lay money on Artest’s hair changing color at least once this season.

40. Alonzo Mourning:

What he earned- $7.44 Million

What he was paid- $1.1 Million

What he’s worth- $9.75 Million

Basic etiquette should stipulate that any player who makes a major contribution to winning a championship should get some kind of pay raise. Of course I’m calling for a pretty massive raise so I should explain myself. ‘Zo has earned major money for several reasons. First he was clearly the third best player last year, but he did it for a twelfth man’s wages, that commitment has to be rewarded. Second for as much as Dwayne Wade is the Heat’s best player and Shaq is their public face, Mourning is the team’s emotional leader and the key to giving them energy in the middle of slow games. Third, now that Shaq’s gotten nothing left to prove Alonzo will definitely be carrying more of a load down on South Beach. Fourth his pay is artificially low be cause he forced his way out of a high paying contract to get onto a championship contender. Finally this is a player who has come back from a major kidney illness. His team knows that his health is an issue, but he’s already come out of the worst. Everyone knows that the time he spent in IR after being traded to Toronto was less than legit, so he doesn’t really have any recent history of problems. Surely no one can play the “we don’t know how much more career he has left” card. He has about as much career left as any other player his age, and under the Pay Scale method he would be paid as much as any other player who has accomplished what he has.

39. Brad Miller:

What he earned- $11.23 Million

What he was paid- $8.8 Million

What he’s worth- $10 Million

Sacramento’s front office will find it hard to put a dollar value on Miller. He never dominated a game. He always plays efficiently. He’s reached the decline phase of his career. He’s one of the few centers you can really rely on anymore. For all the he has to offer a team, in the current market he’s worth at least $10 million.

38. Boris Diaw:

What he earned- $11.78 Million

What he was paid- $1.1 Million

What he’s worth- $10.05 Million

Of course a lot of his value may be dependent on playing with Steve Nash in the Suns super-speed offense. In every other system of rating players that would lead to someone to drop Diaw lower down the ladder because they would have to grade him “independently” of his teammates and players. In the Pay Scale method I try to fairly evaluate how much a player is worth within his current situation. I don’t think anyone believes Diaw would be as good without Nash, Marion, and Stoudemire around him. Since he does have them around him he is easily a top level production player, plus an easy way for the Suns to get a foothold in the European market. Every other team wants to play offense like the Suns and everyone want a bigger international presence, which is only going to ensure Diaw draws a hefty contract.

37. Marcus Camby:

What he earned- $7.61 Million

What he was paid- $9.2 Million

What he’s worth- $10.25 Million

Already well compensated, Marcus Camby may not have been an obvious candidate to earn a pay raise. He has been effective and efficient as a center, just never dominant. In this era though, when all the best big men play power forward, though, the market is going to keep driving the price of quality centers up. Also, he proved to serve a vital function in Denver’s overall scheme. He clears the board and carries more than his fair share on the defensive end. If the Nuggets hold onto him he’s bound to develop enough fan loyalty to earn his extra million.

36. Kirk Hinrich:

What he earned- $6.58 Million

What he was paid- $2.5 Million

What he’s worth- $10.26 Million

In case you Bulls fans haven’t had enough bad news I’m just going to remind you of another top level player that merits big money. In the ideal market reflected in the Pay Scale method, Kirk would have been given $10+ million to lock down one of Chicago’s best hopes for the future. Of course that wouldn’t account for giving Ben Wallace a boat load of money, would it. Nope. Now instead of capturing and exciting young player with an established fan base from his college days and a lot of marketability, the Bulls have a post-prime center with no offensive tools and a quirky personality. Sorry I promised I wouldn’t say anymore about it. Suffice to say Bulls fans and execs will wish they could pay Hinrich the boatload of money and Big Ben the artificially low salary pretty soon.

35. Jason Terry:

What he earned- $11.89 Million

What he was paid- $6.7 Million

What he’s worth- $10.95 Million

Jet is a tremendous player, and just the kind of secondary offensive threat the Maverick’s needed to reach the finals. Since no one disagrees with his value (at least as far as I’ve heard), I wanted to spend a little time looking into an interesting phenomenon that Jason Terry demonstrates. Given the number of players whose careers have gone to another level after leaving the Atlanta Hawks, and given that it’s becoming increasingly clear that Michael Vick was a much better quarterback with Virginia Tech than he is with the Atlanta Falcons, isn’t just possible that there’s something about the city of Atlanta itself that draws down people’s ability to perform? If that is the case, how far does this extend? If Ludacris moved to Chicago would he jump Kanye, Eminem, and Jay-Z as a rap artist? If Adult Swim relocated to New York would they become the best rated programming block on TV? These are the questions that keep me up at night.

34. Richard Jefferson:

What he earned- $15.15 Million

What he was paid- $13.8 Million

What he’s worth- $ 10.99 Million

RJ is easily the third best player on the Nets. His history with injury problems and shakey clutch performance has made it clear he’s a little overpaid right now. Still how can a team looking to supplant the Knicks as New York’s premier basketball team really lowball one of their most productive and most marketable players. The Nets would probably edge him off a little, keeping him just under $11 mil to send a message.

33. Michael Bibby:

What he earned- $9.02 Million

What he was paid- $11.5 Million

What he’s worth- $11 Million

At some point during the off season the Sacramento executives must have looked at their roster and asked “How many players do we have that can comfortably and consistently make plays and lead the team on the floor?” When the answer came back just “Just Bibby”, do you think they swore because they were shocked at how far they’ve fallen or because they were resigned to there new position? Bibby may still have the advantage over most point guards in the Association. However, the Kings team is pretty much condemned to the realm of “we’ll make the bottom of the playoff brackets and we’ll have to try and win just enough games to land that favorable match-up against either a soft division winner or a to-seed with a lousy homecourt”. The most you can offer a player in a situation like that just a little under max money. After all it’s not like you seriously need/will get his maximum effort anyways.

32. Tracy McGrady:

What he earned- $9.36 Million

What he was paid- $15.7 Million

What he’s worth- $11,000,001

Frankly, I think it is astonishing McGrady even earned $9 million last season. Plagued with injuries, he’s seemed to lack consistency when he has played. He hasn’t been getting into the kind of grooves you used to see where he could just like up the scoreboard and lay down a few weeks worth of games where he was just the model of efficiency. Maybe he still hasn’t gotten used to sharing the ball and not having to save the team single handedly every time he takes the court. This summer I read some very revealing information that made it seem like Tracy McGrady was the best young player the NBA had ever seen. Of course he’s not turning into much of a veteran player so you have to take that with a grain of salt. I know the Rockets can’t value T-Mac at much more than $11 million, but they also know lots of teams would snatch him up for just a little less the $11 mil. Consider the extra dollar on the end a symbol of some small amount the Rockets pay to keep Tracy out of reach of any of their competitors, at least for now.

31. Manu Ginobli:

What he earned- $10.95 Million

What he was paid- $7.4 Million

What he’s worth- $11.2 Million

After watching the NBA playoff last season, I was prepared to predict that Ginobli would take a pay cut for his boneheaded foul of Dirk Nowitski in the closing minutes of game 7 of the series between the Spurs and Mavs. Since that one mistake was just about all it took to keep the Spurs from progressing to play an easily beatable Suns team and possibly the Miami Mercenari-er, I mean, Heat in the NBA Finals -when Dwayne Wade was about the only thing keeping that team from collapsing- you have to figure the Spurs front office would take some kind of punitive action. Then I remembered that with Tim Duncan at 60% for most of the season, Ginobli was one of the main reasons the Spurs even got the top seed in the Western Conference, let alone to game 7 in the second round. Also the more success Manu has in the NBA, the more his team should have to add on top of his contract, so he can set aside something for the inevitable kidnapping of one of his family members. In fact, maybe this should become a standard part of any foreign player’s contract.

30. Jason Kidd:

What he earned- $14.58 Million

What he was paid- $16.4 Million

What he’s worth- $11.25 Million

Jason Kidd just continues to amaze me. Last year I prepared for the worst as he had to overcome the triple whammy of trying to put together a full season after a bad injury, entering the decline phase of his career, and watching his window of opportunity for a championship slip away. He already has landed the big money contract that will pay for his retirement. In fact if Kidds current contract hadn’t been negotiated with the Nets when he was at his strongest and they were at their most vulnerable, there is no way his success at the time would have earned him tens of millions of dollars before 2010. The franchise was now in Vince Carter’s hands, and the future of the team once they move to Brooklyn was on the planning table. Kidd had nothing left to prove, and nothing left to fight for. I was all set to see a serious decline in both his production and his effort. He absolutely stunned me by not only looking like the Jason Kidd of old, but bringing great defense to compensate for his waning offense. Here is a player who is worth a major contract, just not the oodles of dollars he’s earning now.

29. Dwight Howard:

What he earned- $10.98 Million

What he was paid- $4.5 Million

What he’s worth- $11.5 Million

This one is a total no-brainer. Howard is the best bet the NBA has right now to become the next dominant center. He absolutely has earned his keep on the court. He already has Orlando on the verge of playoff contention. Plus, he’s the most marketable star the Magic have had since Shaq and He-Who-Shall-Not-Be-Named Hardaway. The Magic will absolutely cough up a big wad of cash rather than lose the rights to Dwight. (By the way, has anyone else found it out that two of the hottest young stars in the league are named Dwayne and Dwight? Do either of those names scream basketball greatness to you? Wouldn’t it be cool if we could get them on the same team as Derrick Coleman, just to hear broadcast announcers say “Dwayne passes inside to Dwight. Dwight passes back Dwewick. Oh, cwap!”)

28. Andre Kirilenko:

What he earned- $15.5 Million

What he was paid- $11 Million

What he’s worth- $11.75 Million

Naturally the Jazz can’t cough up really big money until they have some assurances that AK’s teammates will be healthy and the franchise can expect some competitive success. With that in mind last year the Jazz were pretty awful as a team, but Kirilenko managed to get a huge amount of publicity for himself and the team just the same. Granted that was largely due details of an agreement between he and his wife that AK-47 gets one free extramarital “indiscretion” a year with no repercussions from her becoming public. You can’t tell me that kind of story couldn’t be spun into some kind of marketing advantage. You know the single people in your life who have little “celebration rituals” for when they get a little somethin’ somethin’. Oh, shut up, you know that guy! Imagine if Utah could start a viral marketing campaign based on the idea of people like that. They would call getting away with some side action a “Kirilenko”, and wear one of his jerseys the day after an “extracurricular” encounter. (BTW: In no way am I encouraging this stuff, especially not extramarital affairs, I am just noting that it goes on and the Utah Jazz could get a little boost from it.)

27. Shawn Marion:

What he earned- $15.49 Million

What he was paid- $13.7 Million

What he’s worth- $11.9 Million

Marion will always have a place in my heart for inspiring my official rap anthem for my fantasy basketball draft in 2003. Specifically his fantasy proficiency, and my refusal to buy into LeBron James at that point combined to inspire the lyrics, “Pump it up if you came to get it on/ If your name is not LeBron / It’s Marion comma Shawn /Pump it up if stats are just your thing/ you can do anything/ dunks, dimes, and blocking”. Obviously I have no future as an MC. Equally obviously Marion can’t seem to shake the allegation that his impressive performance so far, including all those sexy fantasy stats, are mostly the product of playing with exceptional teammates. I don’t necessarily agree with this, in fact the “earned” salary above from 82games.com suggests something else entirely. As long as the Phoenix front office has that modicum of doubt though, I expect they will roll back Marion’s paycheck to reward some of his teammates a little more.

26. Tayshaun Prince:

What he earned- $15.92 Million

What he was paid- $1.8 Million

What he’s worth- $11.95 Million

If I grant you that Tayshaun is dangerously close to following in Ben Wallace’s footsteps as being “the players who gets mentioned as ‘underrated’ so many times he eventually becomes overrated”, will you grant me that at least in the last season he played above his current pay by as much of a margin as almost anyone in the association. I had the good fortune of watching a lot of Pistons games last season, and he was a sight to be seen. It was obvious how much he mattered to that team. I am convinced that if Tayshaun had only played up to the level of his paycheck , then the Pistons would have been a shadow of what they were last season, and the Heat would have probably finished as the top seed in the East. Remember that as a handy counterexample the nest time someone tries to tell you the NBA is full of players with bad attitudes who don’t care about winning the games. The Pistons last year were a high performance machine and Prince was their fuel. The only players who merit more money than him are The Stars.

No comments: