Friday, November 17, 2006

NBA Pay Scale 2006- The Middlings

The Middlings

This section of the Pay Scale accounts for those ballers who have definite value, just not tons of it. Make no mistake most of these cats can play, and a lot of them have a touch of star level marketability too. In fact, I pretty much based the cut off for this list at those players who are no worse than an NBA 6th man. However whatever skills these players possess and whatever marquee value their name may carry, none of them are worth top level, possible All-Star, money. Some of these players have been overpaid; some have been underpaid. All of them are worth at least a decent offer from their team.

Just a reminder the rules are here, and be sure to read up on the Lowlights, too.

180. Mehmet Okur:

What he earned- $10.69 Million

What he was paid- $8.3 Million

What he’s worth- $1 Million

For a few years I thought Okur was undervalued as a basketball player, and the stats from 82games.com, seem to indicate as much. As much as I like the fact that a bulk, awkward white guy with a unibrow is holding his own in the Association, it’s become clear that he’s quickly losing market value. His physical prowess may have already peaked. Though he’s developed a better offensive skill set since moving to Utah, he still was clearly worth more as a big defensive body back when the rules favored a more physical game. Now that light, quick shooters who can penetrate the paint are more valuable with the current rules, it’s very likely that Mehmet will find himself spending more time on the bench as teams start picking up the new Euro players who are designed for this kind of play. It’s sad really Okur came into the NBA just as style of play changed from something he was suited for to a game that fits him about as well as Dancing with the Stars suited Tucker Carlson. Still every once in awhile teams need a big body to get some defensive stops. So I imagine Okur is still worth at least a cool mill, which is like 5.7 trillion in Turkish lira.

178. Andre Miller:

What he earned- $9.55 Million

What he was paid- $8.1 Million

What he’s worth- $1.25 Million

As a relatively productive starter, the Nuggets won’t want to part with him or offend him, for fear of upsetting the delicate nucleus they’ve formed around Melo. However it’s become pretty clear that his best is behind him, and the Nuggets would rather be focusing their money on their underpaid center piece than some overpriced role player.

170. Gerald Wallace:

What he earned- $8.84 Million

What he was paid- $5 Million

What he’s worth- $1.5 Million

Here’s a hugely underrated player. He never got a fair chance back when he played for some crowded Sacramento Kings’ teams. Then he gets shipped to Charlotte where he may have become the Bobcats’ best player. A knee injury last season hid the fact that he was blossoming both offensively and defensively. Now the Bobcats will have a hard time relying on him to make significant contributions, especially when they want to give their more marketable young stars more minutes (and money). This guy has demonstrated Scottie Pippen level promise, but he may never get a chance to fulfill it. Gerald Wallace is underpaid and underappreciated in the NBA , sadly I don’t see that changing any time soon. This is a tough pay cut for a man who deserves better.

(P.S. Keep this on the DL, but here’s hoping the Cavaliers find a way to land him, and he and LeBron get a chance to take things to that next level.)

165. Zach Randolph:

What he earned- $6.5 Million

What he was paid- $10.7 Million

What he’s worth- $1.63 Million

Randolph does still have the potential to become a gritty, tough forward. The kind of reliable vet teams can keep on the bench and depend on to eat up some minutes. At this point Portland has made it clear that’s all they expect out of him anymore. With the Trailblazers’ youth movement on the horizon, it’s clear they want a lot less of their money sunk into Randolph. Plus you have to believe that starting your career for the Jailblazers these last few years has to have been the basketball equivalent of starting high school in remedial classes. You can go onto become a decent student and that’s considered a success, but you can probably kiss your chances of becoming valedictorian goodbye.

158. Gary Payton:

What he earned- $1.02 Million

What he was paid- $1.1 Million

What he’s worth- $1.75 Million

Some of you may find this shocking, but I am calling for a pay increase for Gary Payton. That’s right. I think Gary over-the-hill, nothing-left-to-prove, bad-chemistry-guy Payton deserves more money. First remember that it’s not that much more money, only about 1/10th of what the Knicks paid Jamal Crawford. Second, for all his supposed flaws last season he actually earned his keep and helped Miami win a championship. In my book that kind of player should get a little reward. Finally, now that Shaq’s proven all he needs to, Dwayne Wade has reached megastar status, and most of the other teammates have finally won the ring they’ve wanted for so long, complacency is bound to set in. That’s exactly why you need a cranky, unpredictable GP on your roster to keep everyone on their toes and the title defense alive.

147. Eddie Jones:

What he earned- $8.12 Million

What he was paid- $14.6 Million

What he’s worth- $2 Million

Eddie has been a useful swingman for multiple teams and can probably learn to work in a lot of different systems. However the market value for Eddie has never really matched his salary. Now that Memphis has his contract and they are absolutely swimming in capable players, I think they try and get a bargain out of a player with limited remaining shelf life and their for limited potential earning power.

132. Antoine Walker:

What he earned- $3.64 Million

What he was paid- $6.9 Million

What he’s worth- $2.25 Million

Once again I’m willing to bet the Miami Heat would agree with 82games.com that Walker has earned somewhere between $3-4 million. However I also think they will deduct serious cash for all of those bricks he throws up where even retirees in the Miami stands can tell have no prayer. Also, do you really want to cough up $4 mill for a guy who was such an after thought in the NBA finals.

99. Peja Stojakovic:

What he earned- $6.58 Million

What he was paid- $7.5 Million

What he’s worth- $2.8 Million

Here’s a player who hurt his value by moving in the off season. Peja proved his ability as a scoring threat with the Pacers then moved to New Orleans. The Hornets definitely won’t put too much money into Peja since they obviously want to focus on Chris Paul. Also, Peja could never really create his own shot, so he’ll have a hard time demonstrating his value to the team independent of Paul’s brilliant point guard play.

98. Mike James:

What he earned- $9.62 Million

What he was paid- $3.4 Million

What he’s worth- $2.85 Million

No NBA team will pay someone who’s already 31 years old and never was an All-Star caliber player, no matter how well they play. That’s the simple and sad truth that will keep Mike James from getting paid his due.

83. Delonte West:

What he earned- $7.73 Million

What he was paid- $1 Million

What he’s worth- $3.15 Million

If you’re surprised to see Delonte West rated so highly here, then that means two things. One, Bill Simmons has apparently not been endlessly piling on the love for this particular young Celtic –or, at least, I haven’t been the only one tuning him out when his Boston homerism kicks in. Second, that the Pay Scale method is doing its job by raising the profile of some players with hidden value. Here’s a great young player who’s starting to develop some killer scoring power, and only needs o improve his defense a little to become a true star. The Boston execs want to protect their promising young talent, so they’ll triple his pay, and still get him for a bargain.

80. Rashard Lewis:

What he earned- $8 Million

What he was paid- $8.6 Million

What he’s worth- $3.25 Million

This one feels a little odd placing Rashard at this point in the Pay Scale. Everything I know about statistical analysis of basketball tells me that Rashard, while dominating the traditional stats, definitely earns his keep. His skills, defense, rebounding, and presence on the court, subtly and certainly tilt many factors in favor of his team. I also know that the Seattle Sonics respect a player’s value outside of the traditional stats. They worked with the Godfather of Basketball Stats Dean Oliver after all. So I believe he deserves a higher slot. I know he won’t get a better deal because the Sonics realize most other teams won’t respect his value. They are always looking for a bargain and they’ll risk insulting Lewis to guarantee they have more money available for other players.

79. Cuttino Mobley:

What he earned- $7.62 Million

What he was paid- $7.2 Million

What he’s worth- $3.3 Million

We’ve reached kind of a sad stretch here. Mobley will be one more player I value at significantly less than both his current earnings and their objective earnings from last season, and he won’t be the last. I blame this on a few things. First, you have to remember that ownership considers current salaries to be greatly exaggerated as a result of several (in their opinion) regrettable collective bargaining agreements. Second, front offices would rather overpay top talent -because they know everyone else would shell out a lot of money for them too, if given the chance- and underpay the rest -because they know the other teams only pay top dollar for role players when they’re forced too. A lot of front office execs have a sense of how valuable these players truly are, but for many of them they couldn’t demonstrate that value with enough certainty to justify the cost to ownership. This also makes it hard for background players to demand much more during contract negotiations. Third, keep in mind the marquee players whose names sell merchandise and boost season ticket sales are going to draw bigger paychecks, because their marketability pays for a portion of their contract. If you can’t recognize a player’s face from a commercial you might as well cut $3 million off their current salary, because as far as ownership is concerned it would just be money wasted on a bad investment. Fourth, the old adage of past performance being no indicator of future success is in play here. These players may have done remarkably well last season and they’ll try and raise expectations that they can do it again next season, if the price is right. The teams however are conditioned to always limit their expectations, and lowball the offered money accordingly. After all, a great season could be the sign of a blossoming star or a fluke. Finally, this is still a zero sum game. Now team can afford to dump endless piles of money on their entire roster. So they will hold back the big money from their supporting players to save some up for the stars. Sorry to take such a detour, but I thought it was important I clarify why my Pay Scale ratings seem to devalue so many players. Anyways. . .

Cuttino Mobley has found himself on a suddenly successful team –the Los Angeles Clippers- who are trying to find ways to improve themselves that don’t seem to focus on him very much –give more minutes to young players, shy away from score first players with some habits that make them a bit unreliable. Basically Elgin Baylor has spent the last several months sending Cuttino the signal “We like you and you’re great, but we aren’t married to you or anything.” Basically they want to keep him but only at half his current capacity, so they’ll try to get him at about half price.

77. Rasheed Wallace:

What he earned- $13.59 Million

What he was paid- $10.9 Million

What he’s worth- $3.5 Million

Rasheed’s stock as a player has slowly declined after suddenly peaking with the Pistons’ championship season. His production last year largely derived from the fact that Detroit’s energy, focus, and chemistry as a team were off the charts, up until the playoffs that is. The starting rotation was playing the best team basketball Rasheed could ever hope to play in. Of course now that the Ben Wallace has left, that unit is a shell of it’s former self. I don’t know how anyone can expect ‘Sheed to replicate his performance of the last few year when he will draw the attention of the opponent’s toughest big man, and has to create space for himself in the low post. Plus, you have to consider the fact that the new rule banning players from complaining about the officials on court is sure to limit ‘Sheed’s value. He may give up as much as a third of the points he produces in cheap technicals this season. So with all these factors working against him, count on Detroit offering Rasheed a serious pay cut.

72. Caron Butler:

What he earned- $7.88 Million

What he was paid- $2.5 Million

What he’s worth- $4 Million

Butler’s one of those players who made the most of his situation and should be rightly rewarded. Forced to start the season on the bench by the Wizards, Butler really turned a corner in his career. He finally established himself as a reliable scorer and positive court presence. Since he still has multiple good years in him, he could provide Washington with a sold piece in their Gilbert Arenas fueled machine especially as Antwan Jamison and Antonio Daniels. This is another fine young player capable of serving his team well into the future that the Wizards will definitely find worthy of more money.

64. Wally Szczerbiak:

What he earned- $9.23 Million

What he was paid- $10 Million

What he’s worth- $4.5 Million

Wally’s major weakness is his lack of marketability. Normally when a player has been consistently productive whenever he plays, everyone would be okay with him drawing big money. In this case Wally has to shoulder the unenviable cross of being labeled a “white stiff”, plus he has to convince everyone he’s gotten over the injury bug that limited him in the past. Those are two big factors that will normally limit your contract. Worst of all though nobody wants to buy a jersey with “Szczerbiak” written on the back.

60. Shane Battier:

What he earned- $10.54 Million

What he was paid- $4.9 Million

What he’s worth- $5 Million

Battier is one of my favorite players and has proven he’s a reliable swingman with many underappreciated skills. Even on a team full of reliable swingmen with underappreciated skills, Shane has stood out as one of the major reasons for Memphis’s success. Let’s boost his pay a little, because he has certainly earned it.

58. Lamar Odom:

What he earned- $12.09 Million

What he was paid- $11.5 Million

What he’s worth- $6 Million

Odom has the odd habit of performing his best when Kobe Bryant is out of the Lakers’ lineup. This is great since he’s clearly demonstrating his value as L.A.’s second banana. Though in the eyes of Jerry Buss and the Lakers’ front office I can see how that’s not so great. Why should a team designed around feeding Kobe the ball pay top dollar for a player who plays worse when he has to support No. 8 No. 24. In his efforts to prove himself as a star in his own right, Lamar may have just hustled himself out of a bigger contract. (Not that anyone in the purple and gold could have worked themselves into a better deal, since Jerry will take ever opportunity he gets to give Kobe more money.)

55. Antwan Jamison:

What he earned- $15.15 Million

What he was paid- $13.8 Million

What he’s worth- $7 Million

Antwan Jamison is another player of which I’m a fan. As a journey man who takes more of a workman like approach to the game, he often gets undervalued. He’ll likely be undervalued once again, as the Wizards assume he’s 1) past his prime, and 2) not an essential member of Gilbert Arenas’ supporting cast. After all if he doesn’t like the offer he can just move to another teams, by now he should be used to it.

53. Ben Gordon:

What he earned- $6.79 Million

What he was paid- $3.6 Million

What he’s worth- $7.5 Million

Here’s player who has to draw top dollar, not just on potential, but because he is just the sort of weapon most NBA teams lack. Since Pat Riley and the Knicks turned each basketball game into a 3-hour-long-grind fest, most franchises have focused on big guys, and bangers who slow down the game and suck all the energy out of the arena by the second half. Now the Chicago Bulls finally have a response to reverse all that. With Ben Gordon you can give your team boost , force the tempo up a little and pour in an additional points in the half to push your team to the next level. Let me put it this way Gordon had, by general consensus, a sophomore slump last season. Yet even at a reduced value he played well enough to earn nearly twice his current salary. The Pay Scale rewards hot young players with a strong future in front of them, because they are the players owners love to market and build teams around. Gordon is just their kind of guy.

51. Ben Wallace:

What he earned- $14.26 Million

What he was paid- $7.5 Million

What he’s worth- $8 Million

I had a great argument prepared about Ben Wallace and why teams should avoid overpaying him. I had a lot of stats to show that he could improve a team but not as much as a max money player. I would have explained the same thing I did in my comment on Rasheed Wallace, how the Piston’s system last year greatly boosted the starting five’s value past a point you could ever get them to play at again. I was going to show that no team could risk taking on a center with his limited offense on, especially as he leaves his prime, unless they know they can surround him with four other above average scorers. Then the Chicago Bulls went and paid him a boatload of money. I have nothing more to say about this, except that in a sane and rational basketball market Ben Wallace would never belong with the players in the Top Tier.

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