Monday, January 02, 2012

Arbirtrary Bowl Predictions: Alumni Face-Off- BCS Bowls

The first year Clemson graduated students was also the first year they played a football game. Coincidence?
The biggest bowl games of the college football calendar deserve the best predictions I can muster. (Too bad I'm still pretty hung over from New Year's Eve.) So I have arbitrarily chosen to pick the games based on a comparison of alumni I arbitrarily select from all the schools involved and then analyze them based on my completely subjective opinions. After all of this I probably haven't offered any useful gambling advice, but hopefully I spurred some interesting conversations.

Rose Bowl- 5pm 1/2/2012
Rose Bowl, Pasadena CA
Wisconsin Badgers vs. Oregon Ducks (-6.5)
The Alumni:
John Muir
VS.
Phil Knight
Very few match-ups have featured alumni who would probably hate each other. John Muir was an early vocal advocate for environmental issues. He was a naturalist who founded the Sierra Club and helped to preserve Yosemite and other American National Parks. The state of California chose to honor John Muir when they printed their state's commemorative quarter. If here were around today he would likely spend his time challenging major companies for their practices that harm the environment. One company the Sierra Club has clashed with is Nike, founded by Phil Knight. Knight turned a small side-business selling shoes into the world's leading producer of sporting goods and apparel. He has been a tremendous booster of the University of Oregon, getting them uniforms, equipment, and even a new basketball arena. Nike has gained a reputation for controversial business practices. Knight would doubtlessly find activists like Muir a hindrance to his business.
The Prediction: These alumni indicate very different game plans by the teams. Wisconsin will try to stay "grounded" and run the ball hoping to preserve a small lead. Meanwhile the sleek and modern style of Oregon will show in their aggressive attacking style. Over time the Ducks will find an opening and gain a lead, and the Badgers won't be able to catch up
Oregon- 48 Wisconsin- 28

Fiesta Bowl- 8:30pm 1/2/2012
University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale AZ
Stanford Cardinal vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys (-3.5)
The Alumni:
Herbert Hoover
VS.
T. Boone Pickens
You may not appreciate how tremendously successful both of these alumni are. Despite the common perception of Hoover as a terrible president, he actually had a fabulous career outside of his time in the Oval Office. He was a successful businessman. He organized humanitarian efforts surrounding World War I. As the U.S. Secretary of Commerce, he spearheaded a number of efforts to help modernize America. If the entire global economy didn't collapse during his time in office, we might remember Herbert Hoover in kinder terms. Similarly T. Boone Pickens has done more that just succeed at the oil business. He has become a powerful political player. He supported the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth group that attacked John Kerry's 2004 presidential campaign. Lately he has been pushing for a radical shift in American energy policy toward petroleum alternatives.
The Prediction: I foresee a game that may appear to be disappointingly low scoring, but actually is very entertaining for football purists. The teams will both play a smash-mouth style and execute sharply. The defenses will look good keep the game moving at a quick clip. Overall the Cardinal will have a more flexible attack and scratch out a few more points than the Cowboys.
Stanford -19 Oklahoma State- 13 

Sugar Bowl- 8:30pm 1/3/2012
Superdome, New Orleans LA

Michigan Wolverines (-1.5) vs. Virginia Tech Hokies
The Alumni:
President Gerald Ford
VS.
Homer Hickam
Usually when the other school can list a U.S. President as an alumnus the other school would have a hard time matching-up. In the case of Gerald Ford though, he may be a little vulnerable. After all he was never elected on a presidential ticket and he only finished out a term after Nixon's resignation. I also really admire Homer Hickam who has the inspiring story of rising from a small coal mining town to become a NASA scientist. The reason I give the edge to Ford is because he combines a notable life after graduating with a successful career as a football player when he was at Michigan.
The Prediction: You may not enjoy watching this game. Michigan will alternate between looking sharp and committing costly errors. The Hokies won't be able to capitalize on the numerous turnovers and penalties, and will only be able to keep the game close without ever really threatening.
Michigan- 20 Virginia Tech-16


Okay, in previous posts I have tried to disguise fake bowl games as the genuine article. Since this post only focuses on the BCS bowls, I knew it would be impossible to convince you some new high profile bowl had been created. So instead I have proposed an alternative game. Instead of controversially picking Michigan and Virginia Tech for the Sugar Bowl, they could have picked the two highest ranked teams eligible for BCS bowls, Boise State and Kansas State.
Aspartame Bowl- 8:30pm 1/3/2012
Superdome, New Orleans LA
Boise State Broncos (-6.5) vs. Kansas State Wildcats
The Alumni:
Frances Rogers one of the protagonists of the novel Little Lost River, attends Boise State
VS.
The hero of the film The Secret of  My Success, played by Michael J. Fox, is fresh out of Kansas State
In honor of this clearly fictional bowl, I have selected two clearly fictional characters. Now I have neither read the book or watched the movie in which these characters appear, so I cannot give much of a description. In Little Lost River the character Frances Rogers attempts to bond with another young woman after a tragedy while she transitions from high school to college at Boise State. Michael J. Fox played Brantley Foster a recent college graduate who travels from Manhattan, Kansas to Manhattan, New York. He somehow becomes a success despite a comedic plot trying to get in the way. I have to assume the KSU grad had the more impressive fictional accomplishment.
The Prediction: Boise State will start slow and stay that way. Kansas State will have an awful start, but they'll use a trick play to gain momentum. After getting their spirits lifted by a surprise score, they will coast to a win.

Kansas State-17 Boise State-12

Orange Bowl- 8:30pm 1/4/2012
Sun Life Stadium, Miami FL
West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Clemson Tigers (-3.5)
The Alumni:
Jerry West
VS.
Jonathan Hickman at a comic book convention
Jerry West was a legend on the basketball court. He is even rumored to serve as the model for the NBA logo. After his playing days he became a very successful NBA general manager. He headed up multiple championship teams and won the NBA Executive of the Year award twice. That's all pretty impressive for a kid from the banks of Cabin Creek in West Virginia. Unfortunately for Clemson the only alumnus of theirs I likes is Jonathan Hickman. He has made hit independent comic books and written for the major superhero titles. I even had the pleasure of speaking to him once. However I don't think anyone is turning his silhouette into a logo anytime soon. 
The Prediction: In a total route the Mountaineers dominate from beginning to end of this game. I would watch something else when this game is on.
West Virginia- 42 Clemson- 13

BCS Championship Game- 8:30pm 1/9/2012
Superdome, New Orleans LA
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Louisiana State Tigers (-1)
The Alumni:
Bear Bryant
VS.
James Carville
I would have loved it if the championship game featured the most distinguished alumni, but since Harvard and Yale don't play top level football that's unlikely. Instead we have two people known for their incomprehensible accents and what they have on the top of their heads (for Bryant the famous houndstooth hat, for Carville his shiny bald dome). Paul "Bear" Bryant  is THE face of Alabama football, as a former player he came back to Tuscaloosa to coach the team. His run as the leader of the Crimson Tide remains the stuff of legend. Carville was one of the key players in Bill Clinton's political team. Since helping win Clinton the 1992 presidential election, he has become a wildly entertaining TV personality. If you need someone to come on camera and argue the liberal position, or just say something outrageous, then Carville is your man.
The Prediction: LSU will try to pull off some crazy trick plays, and will fight all the way through the game, but Alabama will demonstrate a superior execution of football basics. It will be a close game and hotly contests from start to finish, but the Crimson Tide will never be at serious risk of losing. And I don't care because I think they should not have played this game at all. 

I hope everyone enjoys the bowl season, and I hope to bring you more bowl predictions the next year I have a good idea and time to write.

Sunday, January 01, 2012

2011 Arbirtrary Bowl Predictions: Alumni Face-Off Part 4

The 1905 Pittsburgh football team (note: at the time of this photograph the University of Pittsburgh was named the Western University of Pennsylvania and football was still referred to as "hand-soccer")
A new year has begun (which for some means they resolved to stop gambling) and the bowl season will conclude soon (which means we have a great excuse to break that resolution already). I invite you to base your first wagers on 2012 on my arbitrary bowl selection method. As explained in earlier posts in this series, I have analyzed the bowls by comparing representative alumni of the schools involved in each game. I enjoy giving absurd gambling tips so much, that this year I have even created fictional bowls. While you read this post, try to guess which bowl is actually a fake.

TicketCity Bowl- 12pm 1/2/2012
Cotton Bowl, Dallas TX
Houston Cougars (-9) vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
The Alumni:
Matt Mullenweg
 VS.
Herman Fisher
Since pretty much everything I do in life can be described as "derivative", I have to tip my cap to the innovators in life, such as these to alumni. Matt Mullenweg may not have had an award-winning movie made about his life, but he founded websites that reach a billion people every month. One of his creations, WordPress, is one of the most popular blogging platforms on the web. Herman Fisher is the "Fisher" in "Fisher-Price" toys, the toy company he founded during the Great Depression. This man created the term "preschool toys" and landed the first deal to produce licensed Disney toys. Odds our your childhood was shaped by the influence of Herman Fisher. In the end though I think I will favor Mullenweg, because we bloggers have to stick together
The Prediction: You can expect a real contrast of styles in this game (Do I use that phrase to much?). Penn State will play fundamental, "ground-and-pound" football to try to limit the wide-open Cougar spread attack. The Nittany Lions want to keep the Cougar's offense off the field and make it a physical contest. I foresee Houston making the most of every possession though and putting up enough points to win handily.
Houston- 35 Penn State-20

Gator Bowl- 1pm 1/2/2012
Everbank Field, Jacksonville FL
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Florida Gators (-1.5)
The Alumni:
Jesse Owens
VS.
Erin Andrews
Major public universities provide large pools of alumni to select from, so I can usually find something interesting. In this case, I found two people who were national sensations 70 years apart. The Buckeyes produced  track and field legend, Jesse Owens, who won four gold medals at the 1936 Summer Olympics in Berlin. The dominance of an African-American proved the falsehood of Hitler's claims of Aryan superiority. Former member of the University of Florida dance team, Erin Andrews reaffirms the superiority of pretty talented people. She has become one of the most popular personalities on ESPN and is such a hit online her nickname is "Erin Pageviews", because any pictures of her draw lots of hits (or at least I'm hoping that's the case). As excited as Erin Andres makes the masses, I think Jesse Owens has to be favored for performing one of the greatest athletic feats in history. At the 1935 Big Ten track meet he claimed 4 world records in 45 minutes.I'll give you a second to pick your jaws off the floor.
The Prediction: This game will be fast paced and exciting all the way through. Both alumni indicate football teams capable of scoring lots of points in a hurry. The decisive moment will come in the middle of the game when Ohio State will score multiple times in a few minutes of gametime, which will give them an insurmountable lead.
Ohio State- 45 Florida- 34

Outback Bowl- 1pm 1/2/2012
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa FL
Michigan State Spartans vs. Georgia Bulldogs (-2)
The Alumni:
Magic Johnson No. 32 (photo by S. Lipofsky)
VS.
Herschel Walker on a Sports Illustrated cover
We have some superstar athletes to compare in this match-up. Erving "Magic" Johnson starred in the most watched college basketball game of all time. Then he authored a Hall of Fame career as a professional basketball player, winning multiple championships. Then he brought new levels of attention to the HIV crisis, as the most famous HIV-positive person. Then he became a successful businessman generating hundreds of millions of dollars worth of net worth. Now he has become a popular basketball analyst on TV. Herschel Walker may be considered to be the greatest college football player ever, but that is a lot to overcome.
The Prediction: The Bulldogs will run the ball well, and that will be about all they have work for them. Otherwise the Spartans will dominate the game in all three phases. Michigan State will score just about every way they can (e.g. returning kickoffs and interceptions for touchdowns) to cruise to an easy victory.
Michigan State- 48 Georgia- 16

Capital One Bowl- 1pm 1/2/2012
Citrus Bowl, Orlando FL
Nebraska Cornhuskers (-1) vs. South Carolina Gamecocks
The Alumni:
Heeeeeeeeeeeeeeeere's Johnny!
VS.
Darius "NOT Hootie" Rucker
As you may have noticed in my earlier posts, when entertainers meet I predict entertaining games. These alumni are especially entertaining. Johnny Carson hosted the Tonight Show for decades. Because millions dozed off watching his show year after year, he became the face of the late night television for multiple generations of Americans. Darius Rucker first gained fame as the lead singer for quintessential 1990's band Hootie and the Blowfish. They had a runaway hit album, then fell into obscurity. In recent years Rucker has risen to fame and fortune again as a solo artist performing, I kind you not, country western music.
The Prediction: The omens tell me that South Carolina will open strong take a big lead early. The Cornhuskers will just keep plugging away, to eventually take the lead. The Game Cocks will launch a furious comeback attempt in the closing minutes, but will ultimately fall just short.
Nebraska- 29 South Carolina- 28


North American Bowl- 8pm 1/5/2012
Rogers Centre, Toronto ON
Miami University RedHawks vs. Navy Midshipmen (-9)
The Alumni:
President Benjamin Harrison
VS.
President Jimmy Carter
Naturally the only bowl game played outside of the United States should involve two schools that produced Presidents of the United States. Neither of these men may be remembered as particularly great presidents, but I think you have to pick a POTUS over other alumni, especially since there aren't man times when two teams to produce presidents meet in bowl games. (Especially since Whittier College and Eureka College stink at football.) I think Navy has a big advantage in this game after comparing these two Commanders-in-Chief. President Harrison is the only president to lose a presidential election the someone who was voted out of the White House. President Carter has spent his time since leaving office as a leaded for humanitarian causes eventually earning a Nobel Peace Prize for his work. I think that might make him the greatest ex-president ever, with the possible exception of the dude who came back to beat Harrison.
The Prediction: The RedHawks may claim an early lead, but look for Navy to get stronger as the game goes on. The Midshipmen will look impressive after a slow start, and the RedHawks will deliver a thoroughly forgettable performance.
Navy- 42 Miami U.- 13

Cotton Bowl- 8pm 1/6/2012
Cowboys Stadium, Arlington TX
Kansas State Wildcats vs. Arkansas Razorbacks (-8.5)
The Alumni:
Taylor Mali
VS.
Pat Summerall  pictured on the cover of his autobiography
Both of these representative alumni have earned their livings with their voices. Mali has become possibly the most famous slam poet in the world. He uses his performances to try to inspire others to become teachers. So he will represent the school where he first taught. For millions of Americans, when they imagine a play-by-play announcer calling a football game, the voice they hear in their head belongs to Pat Summerall. he spent years covering NFL games and had such a great voice it has been used to narrate everything from golf video games to Looney Tunes cartoons.
The Prediction: Both teams will play with a lot of passion. Kansas State will lean on their strength of running the ball. Arkansas will prove more versatile and will keep KSU off balance all game. The Razorbacks will wear out the Wildcats as the game goes on, giving them a comfortable lead to end the game.
Arkansas 30- Kansas State- 21

BBVA Compass Bowl- 1pm 1/7/2012
Legion Field, Birmingham AL
Southern Methodist Mustangs vs. Pittsburgh Panthers (-7)
The Alumni:
Lamar Hunt (photo from Bat for The Cure)
VS.
Gene Kelly smiling as his own name hover in front of him
You have to salute the audacity of Lamar Hunt who was a wealthy oilman that loved football. Since the NFL wouldn't  let him join, he started the American Football League. He eventually forced the two teams to merge. His team still plays on as the Kansas City Chiefs. Gene Kelly had a remarkable career as a dancer and movie star. His film Singin' in the Rain, is generally considered one of the best movies ever made. Kelly was so iconic that when he died ABC didn't do the standard memorial. Instead they acknowledged his passing by playing his famous "Singin' in the Rain" sequence, an unprecedented tribute. I would love it if when I died my entire life could be perfectly summed up with a few minutes of film that I created.
The Prediction: I predict a bit of an ugly game at first. Both teams will need some time to get into the flow of the game. Once they do though it will be a fun match-up. The Mustangs will play aggressively and try for big gains every chance they get. The Panthers will execute flawlessly and use graceful play to gain leverage. Pitt wins the game with a well played 4th quarter to put SMU away.
Pitt- 30 SMU- 23 

GoDaddy.Com Bowl- 9pm 1/8/2012
Ladd-Peebles Stadium. Mobile AL
Arkansas State Red Wolves (-1) vs. Norther Illinois Huskies
The Alumni:
Arkansas Governor Mike Beebe
VS.
Markos "Kos" Moulitsas
Political match-ups can be tricky. I worry that it will look like I am choosing the victor based on my politics. I try to make all these predictions based not personal preference, but on a fair assessment of the relative merits of the respective alumni. In this case I feel like winning the Arkansas gubernatorial election isn't as much of an accomplishment when compared to founding one of the most popular political websites, Daily Kos. I just know this post will draw Bill O'Reilly's ire, for supporting someone he considers to be a "left-wing extremist".
The Prediction: This game will be more of physical struggle. It won't be much fun to watch, as both teams will seem more intent on injuring the other team than scoring points. I expect NIU will carry a narrow lead throughout the game to win in "not as close as the score" fashion.
NIU-23 Arkansas State-20


The games are starting soon enough, so I'll let you stop reading now. I will have my prediction for the BCS Bowls in the next installment.