The Captain’s Highly Valuable Oscar Insights

Every person can be characterized to some degree by their collection of interests, that accumulation of peculiarities and peccadilloes that make a person unique. In the course of spewing my inner torments and missives onto this blog I have revealed many of my own preoccupations and pastimes. While I may have hinted at my enthusiasm for movies, specifically film criticism, I have not thus far written about my great interest in the Oscars. While many who can legitimately claim to be movie buffs happily ignore the event, I find the annual event to be an irresistible draw. I have an interest in all the award shows- as mentioned above though, the movies are my second favorite art form, after comic books, but comics don’t have a major televised award show. No one can argue that the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (or AMPAS as we Oscar-watching fiends like to call it) puts on the biggest and best award gala. Yes, I know all of the criticisms of the Oscars as an award –they always honor the same kinds of films, it’s a incestuous Hollywood love-in, major studios shut out independent productions, your favorite movies are never nominated- but there can hardly be a legitimate complaint lodged against the Oscars as an event. The glitz, the glamour, it’s everything you could want. Most important for me though is the tension and suspense of how the actual awards will pan out. I love playing the prediction game, as do many others on the Internet. My preferred web site for all things Oscar is oscarwatch.com. While most Internet resources about the Oscars are only seasonal (starting sometime in an “ember” month and running up to the ceremony) this one works year round, spotting the buzz and trends most people don’t notice until the votes are in. Past successes include labeling Walk the Line as an early favorite about this time last year and specifically mentioning Joaquin Phoenix and Reese Witherspoon’s performance as likely nominees. With all of its information and well organized links to the many other Oscar-dedicated websites a must see for anyone into prognostication. This year most of the interesting storylines heading into Oscar night revolved around either how Hollywood’s politics in 2005 were so far to the left of “mainstream America” they made us long for the days of Michael Moore, or that this George Clooney guy seems to be a pretty popular fellow. In fact with most of the other awards often used as indicators in agreement on all the major awards, it seems likely that tonight’s telecast will be very predictable, with the only real suspense being how long can John Stewart hold out before he reverts to his comfort zone and just starts making jokes about the Bush administration (Vegas odds-makers put the over/under at 23 ½ minutes after the opening bell). Hoping to rectify this situation I am going to supply whatever segment of the Oscar loving public who happens across the blog with a brief overview of the likely winners in the major categories as well as some upset specials to watch out for. I’ll even throw in the nominees I’m rooting for. If you want to clean up in your office pool I suggest using this chart here and voting with the general consensus; that’s usually my strategy and I do okay. So the nominees are (in part) …

Best Actress

The Smart Pick: Reese Witherspoon, for Walk the Line­- she’s a very popular young actress, who sang on screen and is bound to give a warm and fuzzy acceptance speech; occasionally the Academy votes for a bright, young star they love to elevate her to elite status

I’m Rooting For: Felicity Huffman, for Transamerica- for the reasons stated below

Fearless Upset Prediction: Felicity Huffman, for Transamerica- While she is still seen as a TV actress, and her performance got much less exposure than Reese’s, I think some big factors work in her favor. First, she’s the nominee who’s continuing the trend of uglifying herself for the sake of a role, which the voters have been scarfing down lately (call it stunt, call it method it works). Also, some voters might see her as a Helen Hunt type, an actress that while currently tied to television, deserves to break free into Hollywood, that is to say film, stardom. Of course the most important factor to me is that the voters want to see the Oscars go to an under-recognized leading lady who’s in her prime.

Best Actor

The Smart Pick: Philip Seymour Hoffman, for Capote- a very deserving performance, from a well-liked, and highly admired character actor

I’m Rooting For: Heath Ledger, for Brokeback Mountain- a classic of understated, internal acting, which provides the emotional soul of a hauntingly powerful film.

Fearless Upset Prediction: Terrence Howard, for Hustle & Flow- I love Terence Howard’s odds. The Academy awards have traditionally been, how shall I say this, on the whiter side of the bread aisle, but in recent years we’ve seen a rise in nominees of color. I think performances by minority actors have begun to attract more attention in a way that has not yet been noticed by major prognosticators. Then, you have to look at what I call the “Twofer” Affect. When an actor has two well- received performances very close to each other and one of them gets nominated, their chances of striking a chord with the voters are doubled. Think back to when, Jim Broadbent won Best Supporting Actor in 2001. Ostensibly the Academy was rewarding him for his role in Iris, but every competent Oscar fan knew he was really winning the award for his part in Moulin Rouge. Stuff like this happens all the time. Last year Jamie Foxx was a shoe in partly because he did a terrific job in Ray, but also because his performance in Collateral was also great. We all know Howard is nominated for Hustle & Flow, but if the voters really take to Crash, he may benefit and rise above the two frontrunners mentioned above. Finally, let’s not forget the power of a hot new property to steal away an award from deserving actors with longer standing. Let’s not forget both Daniel-Day Lewis and Jack Nicholson got beat by Adrian Brody.

Best Supporting Actor

The Smart Pick: George Clooney, for Syriana- good looking leads are heavily favored in the supporting categories, the academy loves getting them up front for the telecast

I’m Rooting For: Matt Dillon, for Crash- he is the face of that movie, and provides its emotional core

Fearless Upset Prediction: Jake Gyllenhaal, for Brokeback Mountain- The main reason I think he has a chance is because when a movie gets hot like Brokeback Mountain has been it tends to pick up at least one acting prize. I believe Jake is the most likely of his castmates to benefit from this. He already won the BAFTA equivalent of Best Supporting Actor. Michelle Williams and Heath Ledger seem to have tougher competition to beat. That and Jake gives the key speech at the end of the film that makes the whole thing that much more meaningful and poignant.

Best Supporting Actress

The Smart Pick: Rachel Weisz, for The Constant Gardener- just like Reese, pretty and young get you a long way with the Academy; it is mostly older, white men after all.

I’m Rooting For: Amy Adams, for Junebug- for the reasons stated below

Fearless Upset Prediction: Amy Adams, for Junebug- I’ll be honest. I haven’t seen the film and know little about Adams' performance. I do know three things about her however that win her my support, and possibly that of the Academy’s. First, she plays a cute as a button pregnant woman, and voters may face a hard choice deciding whether to pick the actress who plays pregnant (Adams) versus the actress who will be pregnant at the awars (Weisz). Second, Adams has the biggest buzz of any of the performances this year, and I don’t mean just in this category either. Her performance is this year’s Oscar invader from the frightening realm of true independent filmmaking, a strong enough sign of its transcendent charms, so the voters may decide to spread the love around and show that they really are a big tent –instead of a bunch of industry insider elitists- and give an outsider an award. Third, Amy Adams once appeared in an episode of Buffy the Vampire Slayer, for which she has my eternal support. I know that won’t mean much to the Academy, but they may prefer to give the statue to an unknown commodity rather than the star of such screen greats as Constantine and The Mummy Returns.

Best Original Screenplay

The Smart Pick: Paul Haggis and Robert Moresco, for Crash- the film has been well-received, it’s clearly considered generally good with its multiple nominations

I’m Rooting For: Grant Heslov and George Clooney, for Good Night, and Good Luck-for the reasons stated below

Fearless Upset Prediction: Grant Heslov and George Clooney, for Good Night, and Good Luck- If Clooney isn’t going to win Best Supporting Actor, the voters will have to have rationalized it by giving him another award. The director’s prize is probably too much of a stretch (though he does have the Mel Gibson/Robert Redford/Kevin Costner “I’m a hansom actor up for a directing award” advantage), especially when you consider that the taught script is really the source of the film’s power. Also actors have picked up victories in the writing categories of late as well. Clooney may join the ranks of Matt Damon, Ben Affleck, Emma Thompson, and Billy Bob Thornton, while the Academy will wait for a later Oscar night time to honor George’s acting when they can name him Best Actor in a Leading Role.

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Smart Pick: Larry McMurtry and Diana Ossana, for Brokeback Mountain- instantly unforgettable with all the hallmarks of and Academy Award winner, like tragic ending and memorable catchphrase in “I wish I knew how to quit you”

I’m Rooting For: Larry McMurtry and Diana Ossana, for Brokeback Mountain- every character is rich and sympathetic, we’ll be talking about this story for years to come

Fearless Upset Prediction: Dan Futterman, for Capote- This is actually the hardest category for me to see an upset happening in. Part of the problem is that Brokeback Mountain’s support is just so commanding, but another problem is that the other nominees don’t seem to have as much to offer. In an odd quirk of Academy logic, the two screenplays which are drawn from other material that come closest are both nominated in the Best Original Screenplay category. The writing for Syriana (which even credits Robert Baer’s book for suggesting the story) and Good Night, and Good Luck (which Clooney admits is drawn largely from Edward R. Morrow’s original telecasts) could both challenge, but they were both declared original works. I wanted to support A History of Violence, as a means of pushing my pro-comic book agenda yet again, but I know the day that the Oscars honor something that began as a lowly comic is a long way off. So I’ll go with the highly effective writing for Capote, which seemed to tell a complete story cleanly and concisely all while staying under two hours in length.

Best Director

The Smart Pick: Ang Lee, for Brokeback Mountain- he has major momentum, a very well received picture, and the boost of being the first non-white to win a directing Oscar all going for him, that and the Academy probably thinks it owes him for Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon

I’m Rooting For: Bennet Miller, for Capote- for the reasons stated below

Fearless Upset Prediction: Bennet Miller, for Capote- Aside from the fact that I loved this film, I can see Miller taking the Academy award if the voters decide to become really conservative (which it has done before). All the other directors made incredible films, but did so by really manipulating the film and the audience in some big, and often showy, ways. It almost gets dizzying watching some of the films, as if all the action on screen is sucking the air out of the theater. Miller is much calmer; he lets us breath. Unlike the other directors who are constantly shaping and twisting their film to enhance their message, Miller simply watches. Miller’s camera is simply fascinated by Truman Capote, and the story and details that surround him. In turn the audience becomes fascinated too. All the other directors made us aware of the artist, Mill made us aware of the art. Watch for Miller to win, if the Academy decides to take a stand against overdirection.

Best Picture

The Smart Pick: Brokeback Mountain- it has all of the advantages going in, the most nominations, broad support in different categories, the best box office totals, it can easily be described as both an actor’s picture and progressive issue picture, and it’s won almost all of the precursors it may even win a whole wagon load of Oscars before the night is through, but I’ll try picking an upset anyway

I’m Rooting For: Capote- I may be the only one outside of the film’s production team who feels this way, but I firmly believe this was the best film of 2005

Fearless Upset Prediction: Crash- I think the only picture with a shot to put the kibosh on the three hour love affair with Brokeback Mountain Hollywood is bound to throw on Oscar night is Crash. It has a few key advantages over the favorite. This is as close as any of the nominees come to being a traditional big Hollywood movie that normally win the Academy Award. It is set in Los Angeles (the home of much of the Academy). It stars many recognizable faces, and slips in even more. That trick has work in the past, see Around the World in 80 Days. It makes great use of many overlapping storylines, and big visual sequences. Most importantly though, in a year of little campaigning by most of the nominees, Crash seems to be the only movie out there making a case. I think they may have a wily veteran campaign staff who are trying to squeeze out a win, while the other films have been relaxing either overly-confident (Brokeback Mountain) or already defeated (everyone else). Don’t underestimate the power of great Oscar promotion push. One of my saddest Oscar memories is when Shakespeare in Love upset the much more deserving Saving Private Ryan, with just the same kind of relentless promotion. Still it will almost certainly be Brokeback Mountain’s night, which is good new for everyone looking for an uplifting Oscar story, or an easy pick.