The Capn's Arbitrary Bowl Prediction Method Part 2

Before you read any further be sure you check out Part 1 of this series.

Pacific Life HolidayOregon (10-1) vs. Oklahoma (7-4)
The Songs:
The Oregon Marching Ducks deliver a top quality fight song. Though it isn’t as up-tempo as I like, it certainly has all the other elements. “Mighty Oregon” has the swagger of tradition military marches with slight modern overtones. The band plays it with a strong, full sound allowing each instrument to be heard. The song conveys a real sense of pride just through the music, and the lyrics are really good stuff. I can see overly emotional mother’s blowing their noses and dabbing their eyes as they watch their darling child in the trombone section take the field as the band plays this tune. The best part is that this song is just good enough to make up for the Oregon marching band and football team’s atrocious uniforms.
Depending on your perspective “Boomer Sooner”, the fight song of the Oklahoma University is either the greatest fight song ever or the worst. I subscribe to the later camp. This hyper-repetitive overly forceful song is about as much fun as being shaken by the drunk sitting next to you in the bleachers whenever Ok. U. scores a touchdown. As evidence I cite the songs lyrics in their entirety.
Boomer Sooner, Boomer Sooner,Boomer Sooner, Boomer Sooner,Boomer Sooner, Boomer Sooner,Boomer Sooner, O-K-U!
Oklahoma, Oklahoma,Oklahoma, Oklahoma,Oklahoma, Oklahoma,Oklahoma, O-K-U!
I'm a Sooner bornAnd a Sooner bred,And when I dieI'll be Sooner dead.
Rah, Oklahoma! Rah, Oklahoma!Rah, Oklahoma! O-K-U!

The Game: I think this will be a genuinely enjoyable bowl game. Two driven teams and a stadium full of passionate fans will almost certainly make the game sight atmosphere electric. This game will take all four quarters to decide as the two teams take turns having the lead then giving it up. While Oklahoma pounds away at the Oregon defense with their one trick pony running attack, the Ducks respond with a more versatile and more nuance offensive scheme. As the workhorses of the Sooners’ offense wear down, Oregon takes the lead to an insurmountable level. The game is sealed with Oregon holding onto the ball to run out the clock in the last few minutes of the game.

The Prediction: Oregon-34 Oklahoma-21


Gaylord Hotels Music CityMinnesota (7-4) vs. Virginia (6-5)
The Songs:
Minnesota seems to be reaching a little above their station with the “Minnesota Rouser” they use as a fight song. It’s very light and flighty. It hardly seems like real fight song material, it’s really better suited for Golden Gopher pep rallies and other small gatherings. If all the college football songs threw a fraternity party, “Minnesota Rouser” would be the guy who pretended to be from an Ivy League School that just happened to swing by the notorious party school for the weekend.
Solid work by the drum line gives the Virginia Cavalier’s “The Cavalier Song” that extra boost to be a better than average fight song. The melody lacks much nuance, but it captures the positive energy a football anthem needs. A crowd of thousands could get behind this song cheering and clapping along, giving the team that positive charge needed to win some football games.

The Game: This will look like a Minnesota route at first, but sometime in the second half the Gophers will try a play they don’t have the talent to pull off. Virginia will be waiting for this to happen. The Cavaliers will seize the moment and take full advantage of this momentum change to win the game

The Prediction: Virginia- 21 Minnesota-17


Vitalis SunNorthwestern (7-4) vs. UCLA (9-2)
The Songs:
Northwestern has such a catchy fight song I found myself clapping my hands just listening to it. I enjoy the whole package. Solid lyrics, good music, classy band performance are all present in “Go U Northwestern”, and the piccolo trills in the background are a great touch. This is a real crowd pleaser of a song. My only concern, why does a school of such academic repute have to resort to using initials in song titles? Come on now Northwestern you are better than that.
University of California- Los Angeles has two versions of the same fight song. One they call “Sons of Westwood” and the other is called “Mighty Bruins”. Neither of these versions really seems capable of carrying a distracted stadium and frustrated team on its back all the way to a victory. They both have plenty of energy, and drive. The musical arrangement lacks a strong central instrument though or quality melody to top it all off. It’s too punchy for its own good. This is a good example of a song that became overassertive in a town obsessed with grabbing all the attention you can.

The Game: Since both teams seem so high energy I predict a shootout. As UCLA pounds the ball down the middle, they make steady and deliberate progress down the field. Northwestern responds with their own arsenal which is more complete if slightly riskier. Overall I see the better combination of weapons wining this game for the Purple team from the shores of Lake Michigan.

The Prediction: Northwestern-42 UCLA-33


IndependenceSouth Carolina (7-4) vs. Missouri (6-5)
The Songs:
Not enough college marching bands have truly outstanding nicknames. So you have to enjoy the marching band from South Carolina for taking on the mantel of “The Mighty Sound of the Southeast”. Now that is a nickname. The fight song has a title perhaps more fitting for the line at the DMV than collegiate athletics with “Step to the Rear”. There is a certain exuberance to the tune that makes me think of the theme songs to old Hanna-Barbera cartoon shows I would watch on Saturday mornings. (By the way, there is no way this song sounds like any other cartoon company’s theme song. It doesn’t have the overproduced nursery-rhyme sound of Warner Bros. Nor does it have Disney’s unmistakably childish tone clearly designed to market well to the 10 and under crowd.) The band’s confident play brought a smile to my face and made me forget about the other USC for a few seconds. However having looked at the lyrics that supposedly go along with this anthem, I have no idea how any person could sing those words and stay even remotely close to the melody supplied. I did learn that the red in SC’s uniforms is properly referred to as garnet.
Back in Columbia, MO, Missouri, or as they apparently prefer to be called Mizzou, stick to the traditional march style fight song. The band lands the big notes like punches. In fact if this song was a heavy weight fighter it could win a belt with all the force it’s packing. I admire having that kind of force and bravado. The song “Fight Tigers” speaks of a confident team that’s going to do everything it can win the game. Unfortunately for Mizzou, they have an Achilles heel, oom-pah. As a former tuba player my ears will always notice when the low brass have been given the undignified oom-pah part. Essentially using oom-pah in a fight song, is like using the spread offense, it shows a lack of innovation or an inability to do anything more impressive. Underneath the flashy surface you have a real weakness if you are relying on the oom-pah.

The Game: While Mizzou does claim an early lead, it is pretty apparent that they are getting by more on a gimmick filled offense than true talent or strategy. South Carolina has the higher spirits throughout the game, and they pour every ounce of that passion into a well designed game plan. The coaching staff may make some questionable calls, but ultimately it works out pretty well for the Gamecocks who take the lead in the second half and do just enough to hold on for a win.

The Prediction: South Carolina- 28 Missouri- 20


Chick-fil-A PeachMiami (9-2) vs. LSU (10-2)
The Songs:
This is a match-up of some big time football programs, but do they have an equally high caliber of song? Before we resolve that debate, as well as determine whose anthem is better, I have to say a few words about band nicknames. As I mentioned before, it seems as if college bands don’t form their own personalities anymore. They just leach off of the culture and traditions of the football team or school at large. I am pleased to report that here we have two examples of bands at least trying to separate themselves. One of them is the band form the University of Miami -which resides in Florida and is not to be confused with Miami University in Ohio. (By the way the confusion of the name is because both schools draw their titles indirectly from the same tribe of Native Americans. I don’t know if there ever was any tribe that actually stretched from Ohio to Florida, but that’s beside the point). The Hurricane band has adopted the nickname “The Band of the Hour”. They also have a few of their own traditions like their “Famous First Rehearsal”. These things are a good start, but ultimately much more of the band’s identity comes from the football program rather than themselves. The LSU band has a terrific nickname. They are “The Golden Band from Tigerland”. They’re costumes are some of the most colorful and outrageous in the world of marching music. Plus, they can trace their history of being a top level show band back to wacky Louisiana governor Huey Long. (Aside: Whatever happened with that remake of All the King’s Men they were going to make with Sean Penn and Jude Law? Did it suck and they decided to push it early 20006 to hide it amongst all the other dregs that are released the first four months of the year? Or are they worried they weren’t going to compete against giant apes and gay cowboys this Oscar season so they decided to push it back to fall 2006? Either way isn’t this just going to make Sean Penn even crazier? Anyways . . .) Those marching tigers sure know how to put together a band show, I’ll tell you that.
Going back to the songs, this competition isn’t very close. Miami’s very simple fight song has a great opening hook and nothing else. It seems to repeat the same to lines of music over an over. It never comes at you with much force or seems to declare the school’s dedication to victory or other sentiments typical of fight songs. LSU on the other hand sports the very catchy “Hey Fightin’ Tigers”. It’s full of cheer and it has a great bass line and a very marchable beat, and a great swinging sound. Overall it’s everything you expect from the Golden Band from Tigerland.

The Game: Miami will show some razzle at points; they may even pull out some dazzle. They will look flashy and fast, but it just won’t add up to much production. Oh, and they’ll have no kicking game. When your fight song doesn’t have a chorus I just assume your team has no kicking game. LSU will play like they have something to prove. Whatever it is they’ll prove it and look great doing so.

The Prediction: LSU- 35 Miami-14


Meineke Car CareSouth Florida (6-5) vs. NC State (6-5)
The Songs: I can’t even think about the songs right now. I’m sorry but how does Meineke Car Care get a bowl? Who let George Foreman’s muffler dealing cronies sponsor a college football bowl game? Have they been fired yet? Seriously I want someone to investigate this before we see the Verizon Wireless “Can You Hear Me Now?” Bowl.
Now about those fight songs, North Carolina State’s marching band seems like a great unit. They are “The Power Sound of The South”, and they play the tune “The Red and White from State” as their fight song. The song intimidated me as I listened to it in my chair. It is such a rush of adrenaline and music that I felt attacked by the song. The drums pound out notes at a machine gun pace, as the other instruments blare like sirens. I feared that I was about to listen to hundreds of college students collapse from exertion as soon as they stopped playing. That kind of unbridled power and energy makes me worry for the other team.
The University of South Florida’s fight song doesn’t seem very passionate or in fact much of anything at all. It’s a fairly simple march and not much of one at that. The songs lazy tempo make it sound like the musicians are already tired and dragging their feet. I don’t know how the crowds at Raymond Jones stadium ever get the enthusiasm to cheer on anything.

The Game: This will be a real lopsided game. NC State will mop the field with the Bulls of South Florida. They obviously will have the advantage in speed on both sides of the ball, and I don’t hear any possible advantage for South Florida. It won’t be pretty. If USF scores at all, it will be when the Wolfpacks’ prevent defense give them some pity points late in the fourth quarter.

The Prediction: North Carolina State-38 South Florida-3


AutoZone LibertyTulsa (8-4) vs. Fresno State (8-4)
The Songs:
Why is Tulsa’s mascot the Golden Hurricane? I can understand Miami being the Hurricanes, but Tulsa? Their fight song certainly doesn’t suggest anything like a hurricane. It is airy, but in the light and gentle kind of way. I think every instrument plays a trill at some point during this perky little number. The music may not raise a cheer, but it certainly raised a smile.
The school in the valley stands by a pretty simple a straight forward number. Fresno State’s Bulldog Marching Band honks out a fairly dull “Fight Varsity”. The chords are powerful, and there is something to be said about being direct, but I felt more moved to shrug my shoulders than stomp my feet.

The Game: As I see it, the game features good execution and steady play by both teams. Both teams refuse to back down, and the game could conceivably come down to the last possession. However I see the swifter feet and better passing of Tulsa getting touchdowns while Fresno State has to settle for field goals.

The Prediction: Tulsa-21 Fresno State-9


EV1.net HoustonTCU (10-1) vs. Iowa State (7-4)
The Songs: Sadly very little distinguishes these two fight songs. I don’t mean that in a derogatory. Both of these schools have quality tunes. I just find their similarity and shared lack of distinguishing or outstanding characteristics upsetting because it makes my job that much harder. Both songs are fairly basic marches, with your standard “Rah, school! Go, fight team!” lyrics. The music features some pretty nice soaring horns and hefty drums in both songs. There’s nothing objectionable in either song, and there’s plenty of spirited fun in both. So I have a really difficult time making a decision. Iowa State’s song is more complicated, but TCU’s song is a touch livelier. In the end I will give the advantage to the Horned Frogs over the Cyclones, just because I enjoy a marching band that can swing.

The Game: This is a close game and a hard fought battle. Both teams play well on both sides of the ball. A relatively low scoring first half erupts into a dazzling offensive display in the second half. Iowa State stops a big drive, then turns the ball over resulting in the score that gives TCU the lead which they hang onto, until the game ends. Both teams form a genuine respect for each other, and everyone feels proud about the game they played.

The Prediction: TCU-27 Iowa State-21


AT&T CottonTexas Tech (9-2) vs. Alabama (9-2)
The Songs:
The Red Raiders of Texas Tech like to do a lot with a little. Their marching band takes a fairly simple marching tune, and adds a lot of life to it. “Fight Raiders” doesn’t have much memorable material to it, but the band’s performance adds a several new dimensions to the tone of the song and my sense of the team. They attack each note fiercely, indicating an aggressive offensive attack. The drums speed along at near super-human speeds, suggesting a preference for a fast paced game. And the whole band really punches out each melodic phrase with a force normally reserved for operatic grand finales, hinting at a hard hitting attack. All of these are very positive signs for a football team.
Alabama’s “Million Dollar Band” plays “Yea, Alabama” with a certain subdued confidence. The easy going tempo and peppy melody belie the power that hides behind each note. This fight song invites you to underestimate it, knowing that once you do it can take surprise you with unexpected intensity.

The Game: I think Texas Tech fans will look back at this game and wonder how they lost it. Alabama will look inept when they have the ball on offense, and Texas Tech will look like they are having their way with the Crimsons Tides defense. Yet, somehow the Raiders will keep getting stopped short of scoring. Still the Raiders will lead for a long time and stack up a lot of yardage. Somewhere I the second half ‘Bama will turn little mistakes by the TTU defense into big gains. And very quickly Tech will see their large lead slip away, and will spend the closing minutes struggling to come back for the win.

The Prediction: Alabama-21 Texas Tech-20


OutbackIowa (7-4) vs. Florida (8-3)
The Songs:
Most people have a hard time thinking of anything interesting about Iowa. It’s one of those plane unobjectionable states in the Midwest U.S. that grows a lot of corn and doesn’t make the news very often. I will always remember it as the birth place of Riley Finn, but most people don’t memorize the biographies of Buffy the vampire slayer’s boyfriends. The Iowa Hawkeye marching band has a pretty good fight song to be proud of. Their Iowa fight song is a jazzy little number that is bound to get the Kinnick Stadium faithful dancing in the bleachers. Songs like this generate a positive and optimistic atmosphere that promotes victory.
Gator fans may have a lot to be proud about, but that doesn’t mean they should have a great fight song too. “The Orange and the Blue” has a lovely cheerful melody, and when played by a quality band, it adequately serves as a fight song. The actual music is fairly rich with each voice having an interesting part. I suppose it would work well for some schools, but the University of Florida should expect better. What this song never does is take the music and the passion up to a higher level. This song would be fine for a lukewarm fan base, but we all know that football fans run closer to boiling. This is a fight song that holds a place, instead of doing a job.

The Game: Florida shows a lot of talent and skill in executing a well-designed game plan. They could beat a lot of teams playing that well, but this is Iowa. The Hawkeyes just have a slight edge in all the major categories. Iowa’s team plays with more energy and more power while the Gators try to get by on sheer talent. In the end, Iowa’s superior execution translates into a fairly simple ration, for every 7 points their defense surrenders, their offense scores 10.

The Prediction: Iowa-30 Florida-21



Toyota GatorLouisville (9-2) vs. Virginia Tech (10-2)
The Songs:
Louiville’s “Fight! U of L” packs plenty of punch. You can hear the pride come through the melody and infect your spirit. The Cardinals sound like the kind of program with enough spunk and drive to take on any team. The drum line adds another special element. Their unusual syncopated cadence to what is an otherwise mediocre march creates a sense of the unexpected or the unknown. No matter how prepared the opponent thinks they are, Louisville will always figure out some way to best them.
VA Tech is not known for their marching band or their musical traditions. After listening to “Tech Triumph” it seems clear that having a top quality fight song was never very high on the school’s priorities. I don’t mean to disparage the school, but this song simply doesn’t work as a fight song. It’s pretty much a circus march, the kind they used to play as they paraded into town back when circuses still did parades and they didn’t tour in a fleet of 18 wheelers. Also it goes on way to long. The Hokies just don’t seem to use their fight song as a source of inspiration very often.

The Game: This game will actually be a little embarrassing for both teams. Virginia Tech will not play up to their full potential and will ultimately look either sloppy or lazy or maybe both. Louisville will in turn be one of the goofiest teams to watch this bowl season. 4 out of 5 of their plays will either be near disasters or botched play calls, but that fifth play will be a big one and will keep them moving forward down the field. It ultimately comes down to the fact that no matter how well prepared the Hokies are, there is no good defense for chaos.

The Prediction: Louisville-27 Virginia Tech-17



Capital OneWisconsin (9-3) vs. Auburn (9-2)
The Songs:
Wisconsin’s fight song “On Wisconsin” is a classic college football song. It remains one of the few songs that can still inspire images of the band marching down the field. It does everything you could want lifts spirits, raises the heart rate, and fills all the children of the dairy state with a sense of pride and accomplishment. The anthem genuinely could inspire a team to victory. The song is so great that the state of Wisconsin made it the official state song. In fact it became the official state song mostly because most people though it already was.
Down in Alabama, they know a thing or two about college marching bands, and Auburns band doesn’t disappoint. The rendition of “War Eagle” I had is genuinely rousing, if a little trite. The soaring notes do remind me of a flight of an eagle. There’s really only one problem, but it’s a big one. Auburn’s mascot is the tiger. How did an eagle get involved in this? I am deducting major points for being confused about what animal you cheer for.

The Game: These songs are both proud and loud, so I predict a hard hitting low scoring affair. The Wisconsin team will have their work cut out for them in overcoming a team as passionate and dedicated as Auburn. Will execute well and play out their game plan to perfection. There’s just one problem, it’s not the right game plan! Wisconsin eventually get a mismatch or opening it exploits to take an insurmountable lead in the second half.

The Prediction: Wisconsin-24 Auburn-14

On to the BCS Bowls.