The Captain’s Brilliant Bracket Breakdown- Final Four

Final Four

Before you jump into the super-fun of my last set of predictions, you really need to read my early prognostications to make sense of this. I have them broken down by first round, second round, Sweet Sixteen, and Elite Eight.

Semi-Finals

(4) LSU’s Mike the Tiger against (11) San Diego State’s Aztec Warrior- Can Cinderella go all the way? That’s the question I contemplate as I hypothesize about this match-up. The Aztec Warrior has enjoyed a great run, but this is the ultimate stage for mascots. It seems likely that he’ll fall under the pressure. After all, CBS will go out of their way to point out that Mike the Tiger has the obvious size and strength advantages. What they will forget to mention is that they have a surprising weakness, a soft underbelly –both literally and figuratively. When Mike goes to pounce on the Aztec Warrior –who has some experience fighting big cats- the tiger will try and apply his brute power and simply overmatch his opponent. But I think the Aztec will apply just the right amount of finesse and use Mike’s zeal against him. By simply rolling under the initial strike and striking out with his spear I think the Aztec can pull of a stunner and move on to play for the national title. My pick: SDSU.

(2) The Ohio State University’s Brutus Buckeye against (10) Seton Hall’s Pirate- All pirates are known to be treacherous, treasonous, cunning, and all other synonyms for deceitful. However, Brutus is named after one of the most famous traitors in world history. This battle likely comes down to who can trick the other, and pull off a sneak attack. While Brutus may have a great poker face, the Pirate is bound to combine his guile and swarthy looks to appear dead early in the match, only to spring up again once Brutus has turned his back and land the final blow. My pick: Seton Hall.

Final

(11) San Diego State’s Aztec Warrior against (10) Seton Hall’s Pirate- I know in reality a number 10 seed would never face an 11 in the national title game, but this is about the mascots and these are two greats. This battle may go on for ages and warrant entire novels be written to record it. However, in the end we all know that pirates are just too much for any opponent. I think this bracket may wind up falling in the Pirate’s favor any year Seton Hall makes this tournament. I hope one of those California branch campuses decides to call themselves the ninjas so we can put an end to this rising dynasty. The 2006 National Champion: Seton Hall.

The Captain’s Brilliant Bracket Breakdown- Elite Eight

Elite Eight

I know everyone wants to read my March Madness predictions, but you should really read my first round, second round, and Sweet Sixteen forecast.

Atlanta Region

(4) LSU’s Mike the Tiger against (6) West Virginia’s Mountaineer- Now we get to that stage of the tournament where the teams have become part of our lives. We know and love them as we would a close friend. We can’t root against any of them, and we will be sad no matter who loses. This match-up is a classic example of this. Mike the Tiger and the Mountaineer are both top level mascots, and they’ve proven themselves. I want this fight to be an all-time classic, but I realize it cannot be. For as much as I have been praising the finely tuned skills of the mighty mountain man, he has a few weaknesses that have thus far been masked. Have you ever tried to load, ready and fire a black powder musket? It takes like three-minutes to do the whole thing properly. In the previous match-ups the Mountaineer hasn’t really been pressed for time. In this one, even if I assume the Mountaineer already has “one in the chamber” so to speak, I still think it will take more than one lousy musket ball to stop an enraged Bengal tiger. In the time it takes the Mountaineer to reload, Mike will make deli slices out of him. My pick: LSU.

Oakland Region

(4) Kansas’s Jayhawk against (11) San Diego State’s Aztec Warrior- I really take my hat off for the basketball culture at the University of Kansas. Their traditions and commitment are legendary. They have produced so many pieces of college basketball history that every true basketball fan has to know something about Kansas basketball. I truly believe that the Jayhawk is a college mascot Hall of Famer. That’s why I’ll be so sad when it falls to the floor with the Aztec Warrior’s spear down his beak. My pick: SDSU.

Washington, D.C. Region

(13) Air Force’s Falcon against (10) Seton Hall’s Pirate- You probably are all sick of how I can’t stop pimping the Seton Hall Pirate. I admit it may be a little much. I just have a hard time contemplating what set of skills any other mascot could have that could possibly match with the multi-faceted arsenal of battle-tested talents a pirate brings. His performance is so dominant, it’s like one of those team’s with such a good inside, outside, offensive, and defensive game that you can barely imagine anyone else competing with them. I mean this is the kind of mascot everyone gets really excited about, because no matter what seed they get you know they’re going to cause some serious damage. A pirate mascot is the equivalent of a team getting hot at the right time. Plus, seamen don't generally have trouble with birds unless they are albatrosses. This is looking like the year of the pirate. My pick: Seton Hall.

Minneapolis Region

(12) Montana’s Monte the Grizzly against (2) The Ohio State University’s Brutus Buckeye- Just like Monte was Rocky -an inspirational story of a little-known challenger who come from nowhere to face of against a massively favored super-star- the Ohio State is their Apollo Creed –the alpha dog at the top who’s just too tough to beat (to be clear this is Rocky, not Rocky II, to which I am referring). I think Monte will be just a little too tired from his previous matches to best the equally tough Brutus. The Buckeyes get the brawl of lifetime in this game and are lucky to win, in overtime, on some questionable officiating that essentially is a judge’s decision. My pick: The Ohio State University.

Stay tuned for the shocking conclusion in my Final Four predictions, here.

The Captain’s Brilliant Bracket Breakdown- Sweet Sixteen

This is the third section of my continuing series of March Madness predictions. To understand what I'm doing here, you had better read my first and second round predictions.

Sweet Sixteen

Atlanta Region

(16) Southern’s LaCumba the Jaguar against (4) LSU’s Mike the Tiger- Wow. We open up the Sweet Sixteen with a fantastic mascot match-up. We should hire some people from the Discovery Channel to break down the possibilities of a fight to the death bewteen a tiger and a jaguar. I have to believe that the tiger has the size and strength advantage. My pick: LSU.

(6) West Virginia’s Mountaineer against (10) N.C. State’s Mr. and Ms. Wuf- It looks like the Wufs’ numerical advantage isn’t much help here. After all, mountaineers are well versed in taking down wolves. I think once the first wolf is bested the other will run away frightened by what the grizzly outdoorsman might do next. My pick: West Virginia.

Oakland Region

(1) Memphis’s Pouncer against (4) Kansas’s Jayhawk- Rock chalk, baby. My love affair with the Kansas Jayhawk continues as they advance on. My pick: Kansas.

(11) San Diego State’s Aztec Warrior against (15) Belmont’s Bruiser the Bruin- The Aztec has already made it to the Sweet Sixteen and I am very interested to see how far he can get. I know Aztec’s have little experience with bears, but I believe the SDSU Aztec can adapt. Bruiser’s nasty streak is surely going to keep this one tight, but the Aztec will be too much for the poor, overmatched bruin. My pick: SDSU.

Washington, D.C. Region

(9) UAB’s Blaze the Dragon against (13) Air Force’s Falcon- This one will take a while, because the falcon will have a hard time to find a soft spot and Blaze is too clumsy to take down the raptor. In the end though I think a falcon is more likely to do serious damage to a guy in a costume than a guy in costume is to take down a bird of prey. My pick: Air Force.

(3) North Carolina’s Ramses against (10) Seton Hall’s Pirate- Pirate vs. Ram. Pirate wins easily. This Pirate is turning into a juggernaut. Billy Packer should do a halftime feature on him, because he is big time news. My pick: Seton Hall.

Minneapolis Region

(1) Villanova’s Wildcat against (12) Montana’s Monte the Grizzly- The Wildcat -which had gotten by so far largely by beating weak competition- finally meets his match. Monte pounds the Wildcat like so much dough. He has clearly proven that he was the most underrated mascot going into this tournament. Now he’s rising to Rocky like status. My pick: Montana.

(3) Florida’s Albert the Gator against (2) The Ohio State University’s Brutus Buckeye- I think this one could get ugly. Any fight between a big, fat alligator and a guy with a giant nut for a head is bound to be violent. I think the bout is ultimately decided by the fact that Brutus is more athletic and has the endurance to out last Albert. My pick: OSU.

Move on to my Elite Eight picks here.

The Captain’s Brilliant Bracket Breakdown- Second Round

In case you didn't see my first round predictions check them out here.

Second Round

Atlanta Region

(16) Southern’s LaCumba the jaguar against (8) George Washington’s Colonials- I know the colonials have a number advantage, but I still think a real live jaguar can cut through three or four people just as easily. My pick: Southern.

(12) Texas A&M’s Reveille against (4) LSU’s Mike the Tiger- The dog is cute, but c’mon it’s up against a freakin’ tiger. My pick: LSU.

(6) West Virginia’s Mountaineer against (14) Northwestern State’s Vic the Demon- I do like Vic. He has the look, the style, a rap sheet, everything. Well, I should say everything except a musket or failing that body armor strong enough to withstand a musket ball. My pick: West Virginia.

(10) N.C. State’s Mr. and Ms. Wuf against (2) Texas’s Bevo- Bevo is slow and heavy, while the Wuf family has speed, and the ability to hunt as a pack. I know they aren’t actually Wuf’s, but Bevo is probably easy prey just the same. No one fears an opponent who can be defeated by being tipped on his side while he sleeps. My pick: North Carolina State.

Oakland Region

(1) Memphis’s Pouncer the Tiger against (8) Arkansas’s Big Red- This is a pretty even match-up, two good costumed mascots in a pitched battle. I just get the sense that Pouncer has little more fight in him. It’s going to be close though. My pick: Memphis.

(5) Pittsburgh’s Panther against (4) Kansas’s Jayhawk- I have already mentioned how much I enjoy the Jayhawk as a mascot and how disappointed I am in the Panther costume. So it’s no surprise that I think this will be a blow out. My pick: Kansas.

(11) San Diego State’s Aztec Warrior against (14) Xavier’s Blue Blob- Oh my gosh! I am so stoked about this fight between a shirtless man with a spear and column of blue fuzz with sneakers it is not even funny. I want to writte up a round by round judges scorecard for this one, but I know I don’t have that kind of space or time. In the end I realized that it probably doesn’t matter where the Aztec Warrior hits Blue Blob with the spear. It only matters that he hits him once and that will be the end of the fight. My pick: San Diego State.

(7) Marquette’s Golden Eagle against (15) Belmont’s Bruiser the Bruin- Marquette has a good looking mascot, but he isn’t half as nasty as Bruiser. Bruiser looks like a young Mike Tyson in this one. My pick: Belmont.

Washington, D.C. Region

(1) Connecticut’s Jonathan the Husky against (9) UAB’s Blaze the Dragon- Sure Jonathan is lithe and mobile, and Blaze looks bulky and slow, but I still like the dragon. I just can’t bring myself to pick the depressingly uninspired Jonathan the Husky. My pick: UAB.

(5) Washington’s Harry the Husky against (13) Air Force’s Falcon- A husky could beat most of the other mascots in this bracket, but a trained hunting falcon would probably just peck his eyes out. My pick: Air Force.

(6) Michigan State’s Sparty against (3) North Carolina’s Ramses- When Ramses (still dodging allegations that he isn’t really a “tar heel”) puts his head down and stars battering into his opponent, Sparty will learn that body armor only does you so much good. My pick: North Carolina.

(10) Seton Hall’s Pirate against (15)Winthrop’s Big Stuff- Boy did Big Stuff draw a tough match-up. He has the qualities to be an Elite Eight mascot, an eagle that soars above other eagles. With all that in mind, I still cannot accept Big Stuff having a chance against a nefarious, salty pirate. My pick: Seton Hall.

Minneapolis Region

(1) Villanova’s Wildcat against (9) Wisconsin’s Bucky the Badger- Bucky’s nice looking sweater can only carry him so far. Bucky is actually a little awkward and badly shaped. The Wildcat is much more combat worthy, and he’ll topple the oddly shaped badger. My pick: Villanova.

(12) Montana’s Monte the Grizzly and (13)Pacific’s Tommy the Tiger- I apologize to all you fans of tigers out there, but Tommy is not ready to face off against Monte. Monte looks like a prize-fighter in his prime and I don’t think any normal mascot can stop him. My pick: Montana.

(11) Wisconsin- Milwakee’s Victor E. Panther against (3) Florida’s Albert the Gator- When Victor E. Panther is paired against a quality mascot, he looks a little generic and uninspired. I prefer the round rowdiness of that green gumba, Albert the Gator. My pick: Florida.

(7) Georgetown’s Jack the Bulldog against (2) The Ohio State University’s Brutus Buckeye- These two mascots are very evenly matched and this game is bound to be close. In the end I pick Brutus because he is a notch more athletic than Jack. My pick: OSU.

Move on to my Sweet Sixteen prognotications, here.

The Captain’s Brilliant Bracket Breakdown- First Round

Since I have already dabbled in predicting the outcomes of college bowl games (with some success, though I didn’t get the big game right) and the Academy Awards (with more success, though, again, I couldn’t get the top category right), I figured I might as well dip my feet into the ultimate prediction game: March Madness. This Thursday will start the NCAA Division I Basketball playoffs. While that is quite a mouthful to say out loud, all you really need to know is that 65 basketball teams have been given a chance to win the national championship. The rules are simple, win or go home, whoever can win six games in a row will be the national champion. Since, there are so many teams, and it’s a single elimination playoff-system, the NCAA men’s tournament is infamous for being impossible to predict perfectly. Naturally, I can’t turn down such a challenge. Of course everyone who read my earlier predictions knows that I can’t just use a sensible or rational prediction method. So for this year’s NCAA bracket predictions I will base all my predictions on a comparison of the two schools mascots, specifically which mascot would win in a gladiator style battle to the death. It should be clear that I don’t mean their nicknames –I am not interested in whether a golden bear could defeat a wolf pack- I mean the actual, physical courtside mascot the school uses to bolster the crowd’s moral. This may be some co-ed in a costume, a live animal, or simple a banner or statue. In researching for this piece I significantly used MascotNet. I encourage you all to visit them here.You may find this absurd. You may disagree with how I assess the hypothetical fights. You may lose hundreds of dollars attempting to gamble on these ridiculous forecasts. I don’t care about any of that. I just found it amusing to come up with these predictions. I hope you enjoy my fabulous “Mascot Death Match Brackets”. For your benefit I’ll unveil them round by round.

First Round

Atlanta Region

(1) Duke’s Blue Devil against (16) Southern University’s LaCumba the Jaguar- In theory, a devil of any variety should be an intimidating opponent and a blue devil gets extra-value for rarity. However, when you realize this match is between some college kid in a plush costume against a live jaguar named LaCumba, then I call this one in favor of Southern University.

(8) George Washington’s Colonials against (9) University of North Carolina- Wilmington’s Seahawk- First of all, I don’t think a seahawk is very intimidating, and the pictures I’ve seen of UNC- Wilmington’s mascot only make it look like a silly bird. What chance does sad pseudo-waterfowl have against a GW’s team of colonial character. In any kind of fight, an advantage in numbers can mean a lot, that’s why I pick George Washington.

(5) Syracuse’s Orange against (12) Texas A&M’s Reveille- If there is anyone else out there who thinks a fight between a giant foam orange and an irate female Irish-Setter would be hysterical, then you and I need to get together and figure out how none of the professional wrestling leagues has tried this yet. As far as the pick goes, I’ll take the mascot with fangs. Texas A&M in a walk.

(4) LSU’s Mike the Tiger against (13) Iona’s Gael, Killian- Everyone who knows what a “gael” is please raise your hand. That’s what I thought. Would it even matter? LSU has a real live Bengal tiger on their side. Killian may be a really great gael, whatever that turns out to be, but I am stcking with Mike. An easy win for LSU.

(6)West Virginia’s Mountaineer against (11) Southern Illinois’s Salukis- I think Southern Illinois’s Salukis looks great, the right blend of friendly a fierce, a worthy mascot of any quality basketball program. Plus the saluki- it’s a type of dog people!- can lay claim to being the oldest domesticated breed in the world. They were worshipped as a god in ancient Egypt, a civilization famed for their general preference for cats. All of this had me picking SIU in an upset, and then I found out West Virginia’s Mountaineer has a gun. It may only be a black powder musket, but gun beats giant dog any day of the week in my book. West Virginia in a close one.

(3) Iowa’s Herky Hawk against (14) Northwestern State’s Demon- This is too easy. First of all a demon is way better than a hawk; no one can argue otherwise. Second, Vic the Demon has experience. He once got in a fistfight with University of Louisiana- Monroe’s mascot Chief Brave Spirit at a football game. Eventually the two mascots had to be separated by the police. Then you have to consider that Iowa cheated, their team’s nick name is the “hawkeyes” -meaning what exactly I don’t know- and they use a hawk as a mascot, so they’re disqualified anyway. Northwestern State wins by disqualification.

(7) California’s Oski, the Golden Bear against (10) North Carolina State’s Mr. and Ms. Wuf- I feel sorry for the University of California- Berkley student body. They are represented by Oski, the Golden Bear, whose slouched posture, antiquated button-down sweater, and poorly parted hair (I have no idea why a bear would bother to part his hair, but that’s not my problem) don’t suggest an intimidating symbol of school pride as much as they suggest a young George Plimpton. This is not a good thing. N.C State manages to skirt being DQ’d by having a wolfpack of two, composed of Mr. and Ms. Wuf who seem sufficiently bloodthirsty and fit for the basketball arena. Oski on the other hand looks like he belongs in a bingo parlor. Chalk one up for North Carolina State.

(2) Texas’s Bevo against (15) Pennsylvania’s Quaker- The Ivy League has always been a little weak on mascots. They frown upon mascots much as they do any other traditionally common aspect of collegiate life. The University of Pennsylvania’s Quaker mascot is a surprisingly cool counterexample. Sadly, he is a pacifist and would therefore get gored by UT’s Bevo rather than raise arms against him. That’s a real shame, because I think Bevo is just a fat, lazy heifer that couldn’t get past any other legitimate mascot in the bracket. So Texas in an ugly one.

Oakland Region

(1) Memphis’ Pouncer, the tiger against (16)Oral Robert’s Golden Eagle- Pouncer is a fun, festive, well-loved tiger with a sort of “heavy- set Tigger” look going on, overall a classic mascot. The Oral Robert’s Golden Eagle, doesn’t seem to have much of a personality, and since he comes from a traditional Christian university, I feel he might face the prospect of death at the paws of a large cat with some grace and dignity. Memphis locks this one away.

(8) Arkansas’ Big Red against (9) Bucknell’s Bison- Arkansas uses a veritable flotilla of mascots. From their live Russian bore, Tusk I, to their brightly costumed hog Big Red and female sow Sue. E they’re already stuffed to gills with representatives of razorback pride. When you throw in the kid-sized Pork Chop and inflatable Boss Hog, I barely knew which mascot to pick. Bucknell’s Bison looks fairly drab by comparison, not to mention that the costume’s head probably has a poor range of vision. I’ll pick Arkansas.

(5) Pittsburgh’s Panther against (12) Kent State’s Eagle- I think Pittsburgh’s cheesy “guy in a cheap looking panther costume” mascot is weak and ripe for an upset, but Kent State is DQ’d for being nicknamed the “Golden Flashes”, which could be a legitimately cool mascot, and then choosing some dude in an eagles costume as their courtside cheerleader. Pittsburgh advances, but just barely.

(4) Kansas’s Jayhawk against (13) Bradley’s Brave- Jayhawks may not be a real bird, but they are a wonderful mascot, bright and colorful with just the right iconic look. The Jayhawk would have won this one in a walk, but there won’t even be a match as the NCAA won’t allow the Brave to appear at the tournament since it perpetuates a racist stereotype of Native Americans. Kansas wins by forfeit.

(6) Indiana’s ????? against (11) San Diego State’s Aztec Warrior- Don’t ask me what a “hoosier” is, all I know is that that’s Indiana University’s nickname. Don’t ask me how you would make a hoosier mascot, all I know is that IU didn’t even try. Don’t ask me why the NCAA didn’t rule that a bare-chested guy in loin-cloth and headdress purportedly portraying an “Aztec warrior” isn’t racist, all I know is that the guy looks pretty intimidating and he carries a spear. Don’t ask me how the brackets could have aligned so that one of the coolest mascots I’ve ever seen gets matched up with a supposed “power program” that doesn’t even have a mascot, all I know is that this could be the start of one of the greatest Cinderella stories ever. I give San Diego State the win, and am very excited about where they could go from here.

(3) Gonzaga’s Spike, the Bulldog against (14) Xavier’s Blue Blob- Officially Xavier’s mascot is the Musketeer for which they have a statue outside of their stadium. However, once I heard about Blue Blob I knew he had to be in the Big Dance. Blue Blob is essentially a column of blue fuzz with tennis shoes. Spike is a large intimidating bulldog character, and that is to his credit. I understand the Zag’s used to have a live dog mascot, but I guess they realized Georgia had pounded that one into the ground. I am also intrigued by their short lived “Captain Zag” which apparently involved a guy wearing a cape to their games. It doesn’t matter in the end. I don’t know how anyone could defeat Blue Blob. Seriously, I don’t even know where you would aim. So, I’m advancing Xavier. If you don’t think I am stoked about the second round match-up between Blue Blob and the Aztec Warrior, you are crazier than Jean Loring. (I knew I could make an obscure comic book reference in this piece!)

(7) Marquette’s Golden Eagle against (10) Alabama’s Big Al- Another disqualification eliminates Alabama, because they use an elephant as a mascot when their nickname is the Crimson Tide. He probably would have lost anyway since his trunk is a huge liability in a fight. Marquette advances by DQ.

(2) UCLA’s Joe Bruin against (15) Belmont’s Bruiser, the Bruin- Two bruins meeting in the first round, what are the odds? You would think if schools in a first round match-up were to share a mascot it would be the tigers or the bulldogs or the wildcats or something. Joe Bruin is all about being audience friendly and entertaining in classic L.A. tradition. Bruiser is all about kicking butt and chewing gum, and Belmont just lost their federal research grant on gum chewing. I give Belmont the win.

Washington D.C. Region

(1) University of Connecticut’s Jonathan the Husky against (16) University of Albany’s Damien, the Great Dane- I would have a hard time voting for a mascot with a name as silly as “Jonathan the Husky” except that “Damien the Great Dane” is nearly as bad. Plus, Jonathan looks at least slightly combat ready, while Damien mostly looks like a Scooby-Doo knock-off. UConn, but only just barely.

(8) Kentucky’s Wildcat against (9)UAB’s Blaze the Dragon- For a wildcat, Wildcat looks pretty tame. I much prefer dragons of any variety. Since Blaze is a dragon, he avoids disqualification because all dragons are blazers of some variety. UAB takes this one easily.

(5) Washington’s Harry the Husky against (12) Utah State’s Big Blue- Big Blue is a pretty sweet mascot. He has big muscles, big horns, and a great look overall. However, I found a picture of Harry the Husky making a child cry with his frightful visage. Now that is a killer mascot. Washington wins this in a blow out.

(4) Illinois’ Chief Illiniwek against (13) Air Force’s Falcon- The service academies are great because they do things like keep trained hunting falcons on campus as a symbol of school spirit. That’s just one more thing that makes the U.S. military great. Of course Illinois makes it easy because Chief Illiniwek has been ruled too racist to appear at the tourney by the NCAA. Air Force wins by forfeit.

(6) Michigan State’s Sparty the Spartan against (11) George Mason’s Gunston- Gunston is not disqualified because I am certain he is a patriot, even if he doesn’t wear it on his sleeve by being red, white, and blue or something else equally jingoistic. However, I don’t know what they heck he is other than patriotic. Sparty is at least recognizable, plus he wears body armor, so he has an advantage in any fight. Michigan State takes this one easily.

(3) North Carolina’s Ramses against (14) Murray’s State Dunker- Dunker, a large race horse costume, is representative of Murray State’s nickname the Racers. He has height and reach advantages over most other mascots. However I think Ramses more than makes up for that fact with his ability to use his ram horns to head butt his way through most situations. I’m not entirely certain what a “tar heel” is, so I’ll accept that a ram is a fair representation. UNC wins a surprisingly close match-up.

(7) Wichita State’s Wu the Shock of Wheat against (10) Seton Hall’s Pirate- I love a shock of wheat as a mascot. I would love it even more if the term “shocker” hadn’t picked up some rather distasteful connotations of late. However, when you go up against a pirate you have to bring something a little better than a high carb diet. Pirates are just too wily and feisty to be taken down by simple long grains. Seton Hall wins this easily.

(2)Tennessee’s Smokey the coonhound against (15) Winthrop’s Big Stuff the eagle- Once again, I guess I’ll just have to accept that Smokey is a volunteer and as such an acceptable representative of UT’s nickname. Unfortunately Smokey faces a tough match-up against Big Stuff, who is by far the best eagle-based mascot in this year’s bracket. I just don’t think a coonhound is tough enough to topple Big Stuff. In an upset, I call this one for Winthrop.

Minneapolis Region

(1) Villanova’s Wildcat against (16) Play-in game winner- The Villanova Wildcat is a pretty kicking mascot, so I would give it favorable odds that no matter who wins the play-in game. You know what, mascots aside, I would have to be some kind of stupid to believe that the top overall team in the tournament would lose to one of the two worst teams. Villanova takes this one in a cake walk.

(8) Arizona’s Wilbur Wildcat against (9) University of Wisconsin- Madison’s Bucky the Badger- Some might be down on the name Wilbur, but I will never turn my back on any name associated with the Wright brothers (Go Dayton! This little town is a great pick to host games for the opening two rounds. You may not know it, but for some reason they love their college basketball in Dayton, Ohio. Heck they packed the play-in game last year. I think the Miami Valley is going to being doing some pretty hard lobbying to get a Dayton Region in the next few years, and you know they’re hard at work plotting a way to land the Final Four by 2020.Anyways…) I like the intense look of Wilbur, but Bucky is pretty tough looking himself. Plus, I love Bucky’s retro-1930’s sweater look. I don’t know, in the forest, a wildcat may have the advantage over a badger, but I’ve always had a soft spot for badgers and other killer-rodents. I’ll pick Wisconsin in the closest match of the first round.

(5) Nevada’s Wolfie against (12) Montana’s Monte the Grizzly- This is easy spelled capital “e” capital “z”. Wolfie is awkward, top-heavy, and too soft and cutesy to last long in a fight. Monte is lithe powerful and an intimidating foe. Wolf versus bear sounds like a great fight, but it’s probably way more one-sided than we like to think. Montana wins in a blow out.

(4) Boston College’s Baldwin the Eagle against (13) University of the Pacific’s Tommy the Tiger- I have to give a warning to you all not to confuse University of the Pacific with Pacific University. That particular mistake almost ruined my bracket as I originally had the sober looking Baldwin winning this match. I don’t know how this is legal, could I move to Fort Wayne and open up University of Indiana. Anyways, as much as I originally liked Baldwin, I have to go with Tommy here. Why? Because he’s wearing a little hat and that amuses me. So I’ll say Pacific wins this one largely due to poor officiating.

(6) Oklahoma’s Sooner Schooner against (11) University of Wisconsin- Milwaukee’s Victor E. Panther- How can you not love the name Victor E. Panther? This is almost too easy. Besides I don’t think Oklahoma’s wagon can even fit in a basketball arena. I’m pretty sure it’s just a football thing. How can you have your mascot be exclusive to one sport? Wisconsin-Milwaukee takes this in a rout.

(3) Florida’s Albert the Gator against (14) South Alabama’s South Paw- I think jaguars and alligators may be natural enemies in the wild, so this match-up has a little extra juice. I know Albert looks a little heavy, but I think that’s Tony Soprano heavy, not John Goodman heavy. So I like Albert to beat-down on South Paw who’s a little out of his weight class. Florida takes a soft opponent.

(7) Georgetown’s Jack the Bulldog against (10)University of Northern Iowa’s Panther- Once more I’ll just accept that Georgetown’s nickname “hoya” is in some indecipherable way referring to bulldogs. Their human mascot is tough looking an even has a nice hat. UNI’s panther on the other hand is hard to find and the few picture I have seen of him make him look pretty lame. I’ll take Georgetown in a double-digit victory.

(2)The Ohio State University’s Brutus Buckeye against (15) Davidson’s Wildcat- Not another wildcat! Ugh, next year I may create a “wildcat penalty” for having an unoriginal mascot. I mush prefer OSU’s choice to take a silly nickname –buckeyes, a nut native to Ohio- and make it into a cool mascot: a person with a giant nut for a head. Brutus has all the advantages, height, reach, range of motion and a lot of head protection. In a mascot death match, you cannot underestimate the utility of having a costume that allows a person to essentially move unencumbered. Give this one to The Ohio State University.

See my second round predictions here.

The Captain’s Highly Valuable Oscar Insights

Every person can be characterized to some degree by their collection of interests, that accumulation of peculiarities and peccadilloes that make a person unique. In the course of spewing my inner torments and missives onto this blog I have revealed many of my own preoccupations and pastimes. While I may have hinted at my enthusiasm for movies, specifically film criticism, I have not thus far written about my great interest in the Oscars. While many who can legitimately claim to be movie buffs happily ignore the event, I find the annual event to be an irresistible draw. I have an interest in all the award shows- as mentioned above though, the movies are my second favorite art form, after comic books, but comics don’t have a major televised award show. No one can argue that the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (or AMPAS as we Oscar-watching fiends like to call it) puts on the biggest and best award gala. Yes, I know all of the criticisms of the Oscars as an award –they always honor the same kinds of films, it’s a incestuous Hollywood love-in, major studios shut out independent productions, your favorite movies are never nominated- but there can hardly be a legitimate complaint lodged against the Oscars as an event. The glitz, the glamour, it’s everything you could want. Most important for me though is the tension and suspense of how the actual awards will pan out. I love playing the prediction game, as do many others on the Internet. My preferred web site for all things Oscar is oscarwatch.com. While most Internet resources about the Oscars are only seasonal (starting sometime in an “ember” month and running up to the ceremony) this one works year round, spotting the buzz and trends most people don’t notice until the votes are in. Past successes include labeling Walk the Line as an early favorite about this time last year and specifically mentioning Joaquin Phoenix and Reese Witherspoon’s performance as likely nominees. With all of its information and well organized links to the many other Oscar-dedicated websites a must see for anyone into prognostication. This year most of the interesting storylines heading into Oscar night revolved around either how Hollywood’s politics in 2005 were so far to the left of “mainstream America” they made us long for the days of Michael Moore, or that this George Clooney guy seems to be a pretty popular fellow. In fact with most of the other awards often used as indicators in agreement on all the major awards, it seems likely that tonight’s telecast will be very predictable, with the only real suspense being how long can John Stewart hold out before he reverts to his comfort zone and just starts making jokes about the Bush administration (Vegas odds-makers put the over/under at 23 ½ minutes after the opening bell). Hoping to rectify this situation I am going to supply whatever segment of the Oscar loving public who happens across the blog with a brief overview of the likely winners in the major categories as well as some upset specials to watch out for. I’ll even throw in the nominees I’m rooting for. If you want to clean up in your office pool I suggest using this chart here and voting with the general consensus; that’s usually my strategy and I do okay. So the nominees are (in part) …

Best Actress

The Smart Pick: Reese Witherspoon, for Walk the Line­- she’s a very popular young actress, who sang on screen and is bound to give a warm and fuzzy acceptance speech; occasionally the Academy votes for a bright, young star they love to elevate her to elite status

I’m Rooting For: Felicity Huffman, for Transamerica- for the reasons stated below

Fearless Upset Prediction: Felicity Huffman, for Transamerica- While she is still seen as a TV actress, and her performance got much less exposure than Reese’s, I think some big factors work in her favor. First, she’s the nominee who’s continuing the trend of uglifying herself for the sake of a role, which the voters have been scarfing down lately (call it stunt, call it method it works). Also, some voters might see her as a Helen Hunt type, an actress that while currently tied to television, deserves to break free into Hollywood, that is to say film, stardom. Of course the most important factor to me is that the voters want to see the Oscars go to an under-recognized leading lady who’s in her prime.

Best Actor

The Smart Pick: Philip Seymour Hoffman, for Capote- a very deserving performance, from a well-liked, and highly admired character actor

I’m Rooting For: Heath Ledger, for Brokeback Mountain- a classic of understated, internal acting, which provides the emotional soul of a hauntingly powerful film.

Fearless Upset Prediction: Terrence Howard, for Hustle & Flow- I love Terence Howard’s odds. The Academy awards have traditionally been, how shall I say this, on the whiter side of the bread aisle, but in recent years we’ve seen a rise in nominees of color. I think performances by minority actors have begun to attract more attention in a way that has not yet been noticed by major prognosticators. Then, you have to look at what I call the “Twofer” Affect. When an actor has two well- received performances very close to each other and one of them gets nominated, their chances of striking a chord with the voters are doubled. Think back to when, Jim Broadbent won Best Supporting Actor in 2001. Ostensibly the Academy was rewarding him for his role in Iris, but every competent Oscar fan knew he was really winning the award for his part in Moulin Rouge. Stuff like this happens all the time. Last year Jamie Foxx was a shoe in partly because he did a terrific job in Ray, but also because his performance in Collateral was also great. We all know Howard is nominated for Hustle & Flow, but if the voters really take to Crash, he may benefit and rise above the two frontrunners mentioned above. Finally, let’s not forget the power of a hot new property to steal away an award from deserving actors with longer standing. Let’s not forget both Daniel-Day Lewis and Jack Nicholson got beat by Adrian Brody.

Best Supporting Actor

The Smart Pick: George Clooney, for Syriana- good looking leads are heavily favored in the supporting categories, the academy loves getting them up front for the telecast

I’m Rooting For: Matt Dillon, for Crash- he is the face of that movie, and provides its emotional core

Fearless Upset Prediction: Jake Gyllenhaal, for Brokeback Mountain- The main reason I think he has a chance is because when a movie gets hot like Brokeback Mountain has been it tends to pick up at least one acting prize. I believe Jake is the most likely of his castmates to benefit from this. He already won the BAFTA equivalent of Best Supporting Actor. Michelle Williams and Heath Ledger seem to have tougher competition to beat. That and Jake gives the key speech at the end of the film that makes the whole thing that much more meaningful and poignant.

Best Supporting Actress

The Smart Pick: Rachel Weisz, for The Constant Gardener- just like Reese, pretty and young get you a long way with the Academy; it is mostly older, white men after all.

I’m Rooting For: Amy Adams, for Junebug- for the reasons stated below

Fearless Upset Prediction: Amy Adams, for Junebug- I’ll be honest. I haven’t seen the film and know little about Adams' performance. I do know three things about her however that win her my support, and possibly that of the Academy’s. First, she plays a cute as a button pregnant woman, and voters may face a hard choice deciding whether to pick the actress who plays pregnant (Adams) versus the actress who will be pregnant at the awars (Weisz). Second, Adams has the biggest buzz of any of the performances this year, and I don’t mean just in this category either. Her performance is this year’s Oscar invader from the frightening realm of true independent filmmaking, a strong enough sign of its transcendent charms, so the voters may decide to spread the love around and show that they really are a big tent –instead of a bunch of industry insider elitists- and give an outsider an award. Third, Amy Adams once appeared in an episode of Buffy the Vampire Slayer, for which she has my eternal support. I know that won’t mean much to the Academy, but they may prefer to give the statue to an unknown commodity rather than the star of such screen greats as Constantine and The Mummy Returns.

Best Original Screenplay

The Smart Pick: Paul Haggis and Robert Moresco, for Crash- the film has been well-received, it’s clearly considered generally good with its multiple nominations

I’m Rooting For: Grant Heslov and George Clooney, for Good Night, and Good Luck-for the reasons stated below

Fearless Upset Prediction: Grant Heslov and George Clooney, for Good Night, and Good Luck- If Clooney isn’t going to win Best Supporting Actor, the voters will have to have rationalized it by giving him another award. The director’s prize is probably too much of a stretch (though he does have the Mel Gibson/Robert Redford/Kevin Costner “I’m a hansom actor up for a directing award” advantage), especially when you consider that the taught script is really the source of the film’s power. Also actors have picked up victories in the writing categories of late as well. Clooney may join the ranks of Matt Damon, Ben Affleck, Emma Thompson, and Billy Bob Thornton, while the Academy will wait for a later Oscar night time to honor George’s acting when they can name him Best Actor in a Leading Role.

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Smart Pick: Larry McMurtry and Diana Ossana, for Brokeback Mountain- instantly unforgettable with all the hallmarks of and Academy Award winner, like tragic ending and memorable catchphrase in “I wish I knew how to quit you”

I’m Rooting For: Larry McMurtry and Diana Ossana, for Brokeback Mountain- every character is rich and sympathetic, we’ll be talking about this story for years to come

Fearless Upset Prediction: Dan Futterman, for Capote- This is actually the hardest category for me to see an upset happening in. Part of the problem is that Brokeback Mountain’s support is just so commanding, but another problem is that the other nominees don’t seem to have as much to offer. In an odd quirk of Academy logic, the two screenplays which are drawn from other material that come closest are both nominated in the Best Original Screenplay category. The writing for Syriana (which even credits Robert Baer’s book for suggesting the story) and Good Night, and Good Luck (which Clooney admits is drawn largely from Edward R. Morrow’s original telecasts) could both challenge, but they were both declared original works. I wanted to support A History of Violence, as a means of pushing my pro-comic book agenda yet again, but I know the day that the Oscars honor something that began as a lowly comic is a long way off. So I’ll go with the highly effective writing for Capote, which seemed to tell a complete story cleanly and concisely all while staying under two hours in length.

Best Director

The Smart Pick: Ang Lee, for Brokeback Mountain- he has major momentum, a very well received picture, and the boost of being the first non-white to win a directing Oscar all going for him, that and the Academy probably thinks it owes him for Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon

I’m Rooting For: Bennet Miller, for Capote- for the reasons stated below

Fearless Upset Prediction: Bennet Miller, for Capote- Aside from the fact that I loved this film, I can see Miller taking the Academy award if the voters decide to become really conservative (which it has done before). All the other directors made incredible films, but did so by really manipulating the film and the audience in some big, and often showy, ways. It almost gets dizzying watching some of the films, as if all the action on screen is sucking the air out of the theater. Miller is much calmer; he lets us breath. Unlike the other directors who are constantly shaping and twisting their film to enhance their message, Miller simply watches. Miller’s camera is simply fascinated by Truman Capote, and the story and details that surround him. In turn the audience becomes fascinated too. All the other directors made us aware of the artist, Mill made us aware of the art. Watch for Miller to win, if the Academy decides to take a stand against overdirection.

Best Picture

The Smart Pick: Brokeback Mountain- it has all of the advantages going in, the most nominations, broad support in different categories, the best box office totals, it can easily be described as both an actor’s picture and progressive issue picture, and it’s won almost all of the precursors it may even win a whole wagon load of Oscars before the night is through, but I’ll try picking an upset anyway

I’m Rooting For: Capote- I may be the only one outside of the film’s production team who feels this way, but I firmly believe this was the best film of 2005

Fearless Upset Prediction: Crash- I think the only picture with a shot to put the kibosh on the three hour love affair with Brokeback Mountain Hollywood is bound to throw on Oscar night is Crash. It has a few key advantages over the favorite. This is as close as any of the nominees come to being a traditional big Hollywood movie that normally win the Academy Award. It is set in Los Angeles (the home of much of the Academy). It stars many recognizable faces, and slips in even more. That trick has work in the past, see Around the World in 80 Days. It makes great use of many overlapping storylines, and big visual sequences. Most importantly though, in a year of little campaigning by most of the nominees, Crash seems to be the only movie out there making a case. I think they may have a wily veteran campaign staff who are trying to squeeze out a win, while the other films have been relaxing either overly-confident (Brokeback Mountain) or already defeated (everyone else). Don’t underestimate the power of great Oscar promotion push. One of my saddest Oscar memories is when Shakespeare in Love upset the much more deserving Saving Private Ryan, with just the same kind of relentless promotion. Still it will almost certainly be Brokeback Mountain’s night, which is good new for everyone looking for an uplifting Oscar story, or an easy pick.