NBA Team “Solar” Ratings 4/17/2006

The last time I wrote anything about the NBA it was to point out that the fine people at ESPN.com seemed to have struck on the idea of analyzing pro-basketball through analogies to astronomy very much comparable to what I use in this column. Realizing that only a deluded paranoid person would accuse a multi-national media conglomerate of stealing ideas from a virtually unread blog, I decided to leave the whole issue alone and focus on other things. Then I heard Dan Patrick of the famed and brilliantly titled “The Dan Patrick Show” discuss using a “My mascot can beat up your mascot” strategy to predict his NCAA men’s tournament bracket, shortly after I released my “Mascot Death Match Brackets of Doom”. I thought the coincidence was just too much and I actually did talk to a lawyer about the matter. Neither of us treated it seriously and we both acknowledged that one would have to be crazy to truly believe the most powerful sports media corporation in the world would stoop to lifting ideas from my blog. His advice was, “Don’t mess with the Mouse”. He was right of course, first of all it is both silly and insane to suggest that anyone at ESPN would ever notice this blog, let alone imitate it. Second if it came to a court case, I think the population of Disney’s legal department is probably greater than the population of Belgium, and I just can’t fight that. Finally, there are pretty good odds that somewhere in the long history of cartoons that the Disney company either created, purchased, or traded Al Michaels soul for, there is some character called “The Captain of History” and they would take me to the cleaners over MY infringement on their copyrights and trademarks on said character and his derivative characters (I’m pretty sure I saw Gob Bluth fall victim to a similar plight, when he created Mr. Banana Grabber and the whole Banana Grabber family of characters then gave away the cartoon rights to Michael. Anyways . . .). Now that the postseason is almost upon us, and we know all the teams who are going to be making the post-season (all that’s left to decide is seeding), it seems appropriate for me to revisit the power ranking fray. WARNING! In order to avoid anymore “coincidental” similarities between my work and the work of the dedicated staff at ESPN, I have decided to make my last power rankings of the year be a completely different take on the solar ratings, as I have previously expressed them. Imagine these as the NBA Solar Ratings from Bizarro World (or Earth-0 for all you Pre-Crisis sticks in the mud who insist no good ideas have been made since 1969, so we need to kill off great characters like Wally West, Conner Kent, and Kyle Rayner, just because you can’t stand to see anything in the pages of DC comics except what you bought off the newsstand rack when you were eight years old. Sheesh! Anyways . . .)

I know, I am abandoning my usual analogies for this edition of the Solar Ratings and that’s a little confusing, but you’ll just have to bear with me here. When I thought about how to do my astronomy based ratings in a way that would be unique, silly, immune from imitation and somewhat sensible, I realized there was a way to see every good team as being in a bad situation and every bad team as being in a good situation. In effect I could reverse the entire order of my basketball solar system as I had previously presented it. Then I remembered that the major reason I had arranged my ratings the way I had was not strictly to sort the teams by quality, but also by their importance to the association and the comparable situations they share. This led me to think about not spinning the team’s situation but just recasting the categories. Accordingly, I have redefined the top categories so that they now fit the worst teams. Each category now has a brief explanation of its new definition, and I will use my comments to explain why all the teams that you know stink are actually the most fascinating, most important, most exciting, teams in professional basketball.

I. Sun- for the team whose recent history most resembles a giant ball of flame, consuming everything it touches, and which has no hope of being put out in the foreseeable future.

New York Knicks- I truly believe that with the regular season as good as done and the long-term view of basketball no in effect that the New York Knickerbockers are the biggest story in basketball. The mechanics and explanation of their current situation are old news, a team of has-beens and not-yets who are all overpaid, a coach that sours on players very quickly and hops teams almost as quickly, a very fickle fan base still convinced Clyde Frazier, Willis Reed, and Bill Bradley were the best thing to hit hardwood since canvas shoes, and a general manager whose poor choices defy all earthly description. However in the very near future they are going to become the story in the NBA. It will start simply enough when the rumors of Larry Brown taking an early retirement will start to swirl. The airwaves will be filled with chatter on this topic because the major national media will prefer having this “controversial” topic to discuss than spending a week and a half discussing the dull opening round playoff series. Also, thanks to the fact that New York has more cameras and microphones for the purpose of “news” per capita than any other place in the known universe, we’ll get a steady barrage of video clips and sound bites of the endless parade of ad hoc press conferences held by Brown, the Knicks’ front office, the individual players, and whoever else decides to get involved. Then just when we should be getting excited about the second round of the playoffs when the good teams play each other and the real action heats up, Isaiah Thomas, with his incredible sense of inopportune timing, will finally shoot off to the New York Post or Larry King about how he’s really feeling, and he’ll either a) make a emotionally charged and ill advised comment that embarrasses himself and the Knicks organization as a whole, or b) issue any overly stern and completely ridiculous ultimatum that, once it’s out there, will tie the Knicks to a disastrous strategy that will only continue the downward spiral. Of course knowing what we do about Isaiah, he may even do both at once. Heck, he may throw in a smear against the city of New York, just to score the PR disaster hat trick. This will send the pundits into a tizzy, they will completely forget to cover the second round of the playoffs as speculation soars about the fates of both Larry Brown and Isaiah Thomas in New York. Then all four sides (Brown, Thomas, the Knicks ownership, and the players) will take the fight to the press. Accusations, threats, ultimatums, and insults will blanket the sports world. Now that all of the “sexy” big market franchises are out of the playoffs, no one will much mind that the coverage of the conference finals is pushed back to page 3. (If you don’t think the talking heads and sports columnists who get the page 1 column with their color photograph above the fold will be all over this, compare the amount of time the national media spent discussing the Knicks and the amount of time they spent discussing the Portland Trailblazers during the regular season. Then consider the fact that these teams are pretty similar, good coach moving from a good situation for more money, poorly constructed roster, chronically inept front offices, and severe discipline issues. The only difference is that one is in New York, the center of all existence as far as the national news media is concerned, and the other is in small market city, whose second biggest draw is the University of Oregon Ducks.) Commissioner Stern may be able to hush the talk long enough for everyone to comment on how little buzz the Finals have, but as soon as the trophies are handed out, all the talk will return to New York. Now, you may disagree with the particulars of the timeline I’ve laid out, but seriously which of the events that I just described would you bet money on not happening. The really scary thing is I don’t know how this will end. Will the Knicks fire both Brown and Thomas, deciding to spend a decade starting over like the Bulls post-Jordan? Will David Stern be forced to intervene, perhaps forcing Brown into retirement or needing to give the Knicks amnesty after the horrors of the Isaiah Thomas ere, much like the NBA had to do for the Cleveland Cavaliers following Ted Stepien’s reign of terror? Will the other owners decide to exile the Knicks forcing them to become some kind of barnstorming pro-basketball club like the Harlem Globetrotters, because loosing the fan support of New York is better for the NBA than having a marquee franchise continue to be a source of embarrassment? There is really no limit to how bad this could get, and I don’t mean in five years, I mean before the summer league tips off. That’s why for the foreseeable future the most important team in the NBA is your New York Knicks.

II. Jupiter- for those teams whose mass of and constant storm of bad budget decisions are only surpassed by their apparent lifelessness

Atlanta Hawks- Going back on comments I made earlier this season about the apparent value of Joe Johnson, I will admit he is an above average player and will be a valuable asset to the team in the long run. Right now however, you still have a team that can beat any team on any night -and did in fact beat both the Spurs and the Pistons this season- yet they still have an awful record. The trade to land Johnson forced one of the Hawks owners to sale his share, because apparently he couldn’t stand to be part of an organization that would competently acquire talented players. Since then it has become clear to me that the real problem is all the other Hawks owners. Someone needs to buy up this team and start setting this ship right. Atlanta is on the brink of becoming an internationally renowned city. Think about it we’ve got New York in the east, Los Angeles in the west, and Chicago in the north. The south needs their megalopolis of tomorrow. Can you imagine the buzz at games when Ludacris and Outkast show up courtside? Imagine their cache with the youth demographic after they get hyped on [adult swim]. With some new management Atlanta could become a booming basketball mecca. The only trouble is someone has to get rid of all the old ownership first.

Toronto Raptors- I know I have had more than my fair share of unkind things to say about Toronto in the past, but I am here to let you know change is right around the corner. How could the notoriously befuddled Raptors become relevant to the NBA, especially when, at last check, they were still stranded in the cultural hinterlands of Canada? I have two words for all you doubters: Bryan Colangelo. He worked wonders in Phoenix. The Suns went from recovering from their ill-advised dalliance with Stephon Marbury to becoming the “it” team in the NBA in less than a year. If Colangelo can reclaim a team from Starbury, there may be no limits to his powers. When he gathers the power of every basketball fan in Canada around him, he could soon work wonders. You know the NBA will be secretly pulling for the Raptor, since Commissioner Stern’s grand plan of a global basketball league requires a team not from the United States to win the championship sometime in the near future. The Raptors are coming back hard, very soon. I might even say they are the heirs apparent to replacing the Knicks as the most important team in the association.

Golden State Warriors- I think they are going to sky rocket into a major news item as soon of one of two things happens. Either Barry Bonds finally passes Hank Aaron’s all-time home run record then retires, making his story infinitely less pressing and relevant, or Barry Bonds will be indicted for some crime or another he’ll leave baseball in shame and the baseball commissioner and hall of fame can promptly ban him, making his story far less pressing and relevant. I say this because, I believe Golden State had as good a chance as any team out west of making the playoffs. They had a decent roster, a fair bit of buzz, and enough plausible scenarios to land in the post-season that the fans, ownership and players, should have been making a serious push to make this happen. Instead, hardly anyone said a word about it, because every reporter within fifty miles of San Francisco was dedicated 24/7 to determining whether or not Barry Bonds took steroids. If Golden State can retain its core players and maybe getting a remotely qualified coach, then we could see a whole new power in the west. But this can only happen once the world lets go of the Barry Bonds story and the bay area has a chance to catch its collective breath.

III. Earth- for those teams that have managed to pollute what was once a wonderful and habitable world with their short-sighted nonsense

Boston Celtics- I have know idea what happened in Boston between the Larry Bird era and today to make the Celtics lose so much ground. I wasn’t paying attention at the time. Whatever it was it was enough for one of the longest running success stories in sports into a minor tragedy, and allowed the Lakers to pass them for the rights to be the “greatest franchise over the history of the NBA”. All of that is about to change. Whenever I watched the Celtics play this season I was amazed by the work ethic and the quality of play Paul Pierce was putting out. I know many others have said it, but it was like he was playing one game and all of his teammates where playing another. In fact, sometimes I became so focused on Pierce, I lost track of the rest of the game, and started to believe the he was leading the Celtics to victory. So anytime I checked the score and realized the C’s were down by twelve it came as a bit of a shock. Given the slide the Sixers, Wizards, and to a lesser degree the Pacers took at the end of the season I think Boston could have made the playoffs in the east, if the management had pulled off that massive bamboozling trade with Minnesota where essentially the two teams switched rosters except for their stars. It was like the GM’s of the two teams had some kind of weird fantasy argument to settle. In any case this trade all but killed the team’s chemistry and momentum for the season. After that the C’s were pretty much locked into the lottery. If Boston gets a lucky draw, or makes a smart move in the draft they could get a great post-up player to clear the boards and feed Paul for the fast break. Then all they need is one legit shooting threat and they have all the help Pierce needs to make the playoffs for years to come. Right now the Celtics are green with potential, and if they can get the Boston faithful back into the winning spirit, it could be a whole new era for the NBA.

Portland Trailblazers- If you have to love the fact that the Blazers finished a full half season behind the Spurs in the Western Conference, they finished so poorly they could have played 41 extra games, won them all, and still would have finished two games behind the Pistons. I bump them up to be lively team, partly because there is no other way to describe them. More so, I use the term because of the highly combustible chemistry of that whole organization. They could go through everything I described the Knicks going through, just in a different time zone, or they could magically congeal and become an overnight success, rolling through next season with a revitalized spring in their step and an oddly suspicious bloodshot twinkle in their eye.

Orlando Magic- I said earlier this season, that once they put Stevie Crisis behind them they would be reborn as the hot young team to watch out for. I expect them to start living up to that expectation any day now. You have to realize that even with their underdeveloped youth movement their poor trade moves and their appallingly high level of drama they underwent this season they where still between 3 and 5 wins of being in the end of season race to the playoffs. They have Dwight Howard turning into a real beast, the always underappreciated Hedo Turkoglu, and at least one Duke player (ostensibly) in Grant Hill. I call all of those keys to putting together a successful team. Most importantly though they have the ultimate secret weapon, the full power of which we may not yet fully appreciate, a fully armed and operational Darko. I don’t think anyone can dismiss the argument that Darko will dedicate himself to winning more rings than Bill Russell and rubbing the faces of every snide Detroit Pistons fan that doubted him in his coming career of greatness. We have no idea what Darko may end up being capable of, so I think the rest of the association had best beware.

Seattle Supersonics- They may have overpaid for the Ray Allen, and they may need a new coach. In fact the Sonics look to be in bad shape on paper, but they did last season too, and they wound up having a huge season last year. I still believe in the Sonics because more than any other NBA team they believe in statistical analysis. They even employ basketball’s top stat peddler Dean Oliver. I look at their situation as comparable to the Red Sox after 2003, they looked like they had hit the abyss, but with the advice of the god-father of stats Bill James, they came back to break the curse and spread joy through out New England. Never doubt the power of a properly motivated nerd to save a sports team’s season. I call it the Absent Minded Professor Effect.

Philadelphia 76ers- I just realized how much my word count had exploded above a normal NBA Solar Rating Column so I will try and keep my comments brief when it comes to some of these teams. I don’t know if any of you have considered Philly as anything but Allen Iverson’s sinking ship. Look at it this way, the 76ers could probably force Webber to retire or at least move him to someone else’s payroll. They are bound to trade AI sooner or later. With those two moves they have a fresh start and a whole lot of attention. I don’t quite know what they’ll do with that, but it should be interesting.

IV. Saturn- for those teams who are most notable for the lifeless wastes that constantly orbit them

Minnesota Timberwolves- For anyone living in the Twin Cities area this summer, I would avoid contact with KG at all costs. Kevin Garnett is likely to find out one of two things this summer either that he is no longer considered to be the same level of player as Tim Duncan (as the Spurs win another championship in another year he failed to make he playoffs), or that he has been traded to some team with no hope of winning a title. In either case he is about to become the player to watch for the next several months. And if some piddling little civilian tries to get in his face, he may not care about the consequences by that point. No matter what the story coming out of ‘Sota winds up being, expect the Wolves to capitalize on it.

Utah Jazz- I really doubt that they can turn the basketball club into a true contender by next year, but they won’t have to. In case you haven’t heard of the famous offer Andrei Kirilenko’s wife made him, you should take a moment and look it up. As soon as AK actually takes her up on that –Vegas odds makers put the over/under at the third night of the Cannes film festival- then the Jazz are going to be buried in tabloid press stories. Toss in some halo effect from Big Love and we are pretty close to an all out media circus. That will be quite a day for the sleepy town of Salt Lake.

Milwaukee Bucks- I think the worst team in the playoffs definitely have the most to gain. If they win one series, they are media darlings. If they win two series, they are Cinderella’s of the NBA. If they win three series then they are everyone’s heartwarming story and the sexy pick to win it all next year. If they manage by some miracle to win four series, then they are one of the greatest NBA stories ever to unfold, and they will forever have a place in basketball fans hearts.

V. Venus- for the teams with cloudy futures but hot prospects

Chicago Bulls- Did the Bulls really make the playoffs two years in a row? I must be dreaming. The city of Chicago has a lot to be happy for, and I think having one of the rising basketball powers in the eastern conference should definitely be up there. Be careful though, these Baby Bulls could fall apart at any moment. Last time I checked Kirk Hinrich is still their best player, Ben Gordon was still adjusting to being a starter, and they relied on Eddie Curry for more than just his heart. Plenty to be happy about, but I wouldn’t try to support too much hope on them.

Washington Wizards- If the Washington Wizards give someone (like the inexperienced Cavaliers) a tough series in the opening round they will be redeemed for their apparent slide at the end of this season. Pretty soon no one will talk about how they underperformed. Instead, the talk will be about how they have become an established eastern power. Let’s see if the Wiz can hold up to those expectations.

Houston Rockets- If you weren’t prepared to see me rank a team with a lousy record to some of this year’s playoff teams then you didn’t understand the point of this column. We saw great performances from both Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady this year (I’ll wait for a second while you go fetch you Basketball Prospectus ’04-’05 and look them up, so you’ll remember why you care). I say the short memories of all the pundits lead them to proclaim next year to be the Rockets time to shine, as they completely forget all of the injury tendencies both T-Mac and Yao revealed.

Charlotte Bobcats- The following may make no sense, but you have to realize that I am writing it from the great state of North Carolina. The long and great traditions of basketball in the Carolinas have gone largely unobserved by the pro-organizations. Yet as I look around the state it becomes pretty clear to me that this region is on the cusp of exploding with basketball passion, if the front office could just get the mood right. They already have a healthy core that works well together and represents a nice blend of youth and veterans. They are in prime position to land any big name free agent. Their popularity is bound to explode once they land the last few pieces of talent onto their roster. The amazing thing is some other dumb team might be willing to give them a KG or an AI, just to be rid of them. Moving to North Carolina will revitalize any players who had become dispirited. The passion from the crowd will lead Charlotte to supplant Detroit as the home of the association's most rabid fan. The power of Charlotte is that it is nothing by pure untapped potential. For the Bobcats they have a clean slate, and they fully intend to take full advantage of it. Their roster isn’t bad. Their finances look good. And very shortly they will have the freedom to become any kind of team they choose to be. All of this is a good sign of just how big the ‘Cats will be once they get going. Of course they have to get going first, a problem that Charlotte is yet to overcome.

VI. Mars- for those teams who fill our thoughts with fascination and wonder

New Orleans Hornets-So long as the Hornets have Chris Paul on their roster they are going to get some attention and have a little sway in the NBA. I just hope they can do all those little things, like build a complete team, find a permanent home court, and get financially healthy so that they can become a legitimate contender.

Sacramento Kings- I have to admit my surprise that the Kings found their way back to the playoffs. I still have my doubts, but I will be sure to watch their opening round series with interest. If you don’t think Ron Artest is going to do something memorable, for good or ill, this post-season, then you are as crazy as him.

Indiana Pacers- The Pacers are a fascinating team for all the wrong reasons. I want to see how they finish up the season just see what else can go wrong for them. Is another key member of their team going to be injured? Will another star player demand a trade? Could the coach, Rick Carlisle, do something to inspire a player revolt? Will the forces of fate cause all fourteen members of the Indiana playoff roster to be banned from basketball for life before Game 7 of their playoff series against the Pistons? How bad can it get? Tune in, and we’ll all get to see together.

VII. Mercury- for the hottest teams around

Cleveland Cavaliers- Now that LeBron James has made the playoffs, he’ll get his first taste of what the lousy side of a seven game series is like. I want to warn all you Cleveland fans; it’s going to hurt. You just have to accept that that’s the stage of the growing cycle your team is currently at. Like the other team in this category they make for entertaining drama and disappointing results.

Los Angeles Lakers- The Lakers have to accept a few of things. First, they are only the second best team in their own city. Second, they are probably going to get embarrassed in the playoffs, when Kobe decides to shoot 80 straight three-pointers and their opponent makes them look bad. Third, no one on this team has any job security, not Kobe, not Smush Parker, not Phil, nobody. If any one of the massive egos attached to this team gets hurt feelings this off-season the whole team might go into a meltdown, and then everything is up for grabs. They may do some damage in the playoffs but really the Lakers are a shadow of their former selves. The Lakers are like that star quarterback from the high school football team that you see hanging around all the same teen hangouts five years after graduation. Yeah, they have a little of that old swagger and charm, but you wish they’d just move on.

VIII. Neptune- aw shoot, I don’t know, for those teams who most remind us of mighty Neptune god of the sea

Los Angeles Clippers- The teams in this category could all be sleepers for the title. Of all of them, the Clippers have a great chance to advance far into the playoffs. They could land the opening round against the weaker Denver Nuggets, and have home court advantage. Then they’d draw the winner of the 2-7 matchup, either of whom would not likely have the complete game the Clips bring. All this is by way of saying that they are set up to be a big disappointment, because we all know the Clips aren't really winning the title, and all their fans are getting set up for a big let down.

Denver Nuggets- Keep in mind that this is the first time the Nuggets have won their division in like thirty years, so they have plenty to be proud of. Still they look ripe for an upset in the first round. The thing about a sleeper is they need to wake up at the right moment, and the Nuggets have had dreamy eyes for the last five months now.

Memphis Grizzlies- If you go to the trouble of looking it up, you’ll see the Grizz have a pretty impressive record. Still almost no one really cares about them, and they are just too bland to be much of a factor in the playoffs.

New Jersey Nets- They have had a very impressive run down the stretch, but streaky teams are risky bets in the playoffs when one bad streak can kill you. That and their fortunes pretty much hang on the health of three players, one of which has dubious crutch time credentials as is. The Nets best days are in their past, and they are a long way away from being able to reclaim them.

IX. Uranus- for the teams that have a unique style we all love, and maybe a name that makes us giggle

Phoenix Suns- The team is exciting and fun in the regular season, but absolutely wrong for the post season. I wouldn’t be surprised if they bought it in the first round. They can’t defend against a strong half-court team, and they lack the size and durability to stand up to more physical teams. Like all of the teams in this category, you can consider the Suns an outside contender for a spot in the Finals. All that means is high expectations without much chance of living up to them. Look for an early exit for a team of over-hyped show boaters.

Miami Heat- All of the big personalities are just dying to get another chance at the championship. The collective pressure all of these over-sized egos are bringing to the team will be too much for poor old Pat Riley to handle. You can see them building up to it with their sloppy finish and poor composure down the stretch. It won’t be long before the team implodes humiliating itself on the national stage.

Dallas Mavericks- I wanted to give the Mavs a chance to win it all, but then I just heard Mavs owner, Mark Cuban, talk about how little support Dirk Nowitski gets from his teammates. In all fairness he was trying to talk up his star to make Dirk’s case for MVP, however it got me thinking. I don’t know what that says to you, but to me that suggests a one-trick pony that overachieved this season and is going to collapse in the playoffs. Their efforts to become a half-court team that’s defensive oriented have been effective, yet we can clearly see that it hasn’t been effective against those teams they have to beat in the playoffs. So it looks like Cuban's speech backfired I would have considered the Mavericks another team with a fair to even chance of playing in the finals, now I’ve downgraded them to contender status.

X. Pluto- to those teams who have become untouchable because they’re just too cool

San Antonio Spurs- One thing has been bothering me about the Spurs since early on this season. They came in with the clear shot at the championship. They were completely loaded in terms of talent. The core was experienced, the roles were defined. They were coming off of their second championship in three years. Yet there was something in the air that made them seem like less than presumptive favorites. We were told that despite their apparent superiority they likely would not rack up historic win totals. We were advised that their workman like attitude was making them weary. We heard whispers that many team members would rather have some time off than another ring. All of this led to a performance, which while dominant, still seemed a little disappointing. Everyone who has seen the Spurs win a game can tell you that they look like they should never lose, yet they still managed to lose nearly a fourth of their games, many of them in ways and to teams that make you scratch your head. All in all this entire regular season seems to have been a long prelude into their eventual excuse for not winning the championship in June. That’s no attitude for an early favorite to have, especially not one from a middle tier media market, which plays dull basketball, and has a hard time attracting media attention as it is. If the Spurs win the title no one should be surprised, but the fact that they don’t seem to mind if someone else wins forces them way down on this list.

Detroit Pistons- The team with the NBA’s best record, the Detroit Pistons, is at the bottom of this list for one simple reason. They can’t come out of these playoffs looking good. Two years ago their rise to the top was straight out of a storybook, complete with happy ending. Then someone forgot to write happily ever after, and they spent last year overcoming all kinds of problems to get within a few points of back-to-back championship seasons. It was still an admirable season and no one thought less of them for not quite being able to overcome all their obstacles and win the golden ball. This season though is a different story. They’ve looked dominant throughout the regular season. They clinched home court advantage for the entire post-season. They have hands down the best starting five in the NBA. If they do anything other than win the championship, it will be a huge disappointment and it may cause rioting in the streets of Detroit. If anyone in Michigan doubts this, drive south to Indiana and ask the Colt fans how it feels to have the league’s best record and not have a ring to show for it.

Check back in shortly once all the teams are seeded when I will seriously look at the playoffs and turn my amazing mental powers to predicting our next NBA champion.