I have come to view spring as a something of a bittersweet time in my years on earth. I don’t get as excited about the weather as others do, because I prefer blustery winters to sweltering summers. I look forward to the upcoming drum corps season, and the freedom and adventure of summer vacations. However since my time as a student and now as a school teacher, I tend to view the end of the school year in spring as more of a transition time than the arbitrary date in winter we’ve selected to represent when the calendar turns-over. I prefer crisp autumn evenings to sunny spring mornings, and I have never looked at a blooming flower and been filled by any sort of life affirming feelings. I do however become aware of just how far away we are from the next college football season, and how sick I will be of baseball by late June. (This tends to result in me giving up on sports talk radio sometime shortly after Independence Day, and reverting back to a steady stream of audio books to keep my ears happy for the rest of the summer. That last sentence alone could be the launch of so many other thoughts and possible future columns, from how finicky I can be about what makes a really good audio book, to how I despise Boston Red Sox fans more than any other group of fans in the world, to why I still don’t listen to music recreationally. I just felt I should get those all down so I might remember to actually write about them sometime. Anyways . . .) One of the highlights of this time of the year is certainly the NBA playoffs, an athletic contest of incredible skill and grace that always delivers in terms of glorious performances, moments, and storylines. Now if only ABC could get better music for their promos than Tom Petty, we may be able to turn the NBA Playoffs into a real nationwide event on par with the Super Bowl and March Madness. It should be even bigger, because unlike those fluke-prone single elimination post-seasons, you are guaranteed a constantly improved quality of play in each successive round, a full and accurate test of the two opponents’ ability, and a champion that has truly proven themselves worthy.
I know I have done some silly things in the past when I attempted to predict sporting events in the past. I even considered running a simulation of the playoffs on Sega Genesis’s NBA Jam ’95. I realized that I’m trying to be a grown up, and I don’t have that kind of time. Plus, I’ve always been well behind my generation when it comes to video game skill, so I wouldn’t be able to accurately reflect the level of play that really occurs in the NBA Playoffs. Instead I’ve decided to play this one straight-up. It seems only just. I’ve treated the NBA seriously so far on this blog; it seems unfair to suddenly give them silly treatment. I know my audience is limited and those readers of mine that care one iota about pro-basketball are even fewer. So while I insist on keeping the stiff upper-lip I will also keep these predictions brief. I will zip through the whole post-season here, and maybe I’ll be able to put together a bracket you can download and view separately.
FIRST ROUND
Eastern Conference
(1) Detroit Pistons vs. (8) Milwaukee Bucks- This series is going to be ugly, not in a bad basketball way, just in a brutally lop-sided competition sort of way. I understand why the NBA chose to save some of this series for their NBA TV Channel, because no one wants to see a squad that gave up more points than it scored in the regular season get squashed by one of the most dominant teams we’ve seen in almost a decade. The Call: Pistons in 4.
(2) Miami Heat vs. (7) Chicago Bulls- As much as we may all love those underdog stories where the scrappy team wins over the talented power house, it doesn’t seem likely to happen here. Have you seen Dwyane Wade play lately? He’s unstoppable. Plus, a motivated Shaq can still destroy 90% of all NBA team single-handedly. The Call: Heat in 4.
(3) New Jersey Nets vs. (6) Indiana Pacers- I think this is a series that will go to six games, but only because it could go to seven games. What I mean by that is if this was one of the old style five-game opening round series, I could totally see the Pacers upsetting the Nets. Since it requires four wins to take the series instead of three, though I imagine the Nets will outlast the Pacers, and grind out a win. See the Pacers are good enough and passionate enough that they could split the first four games easily, but since they won’t have that added incentive of ending the series in the fifth game, they’ll lose their energy and the Nets will hold out to win. The Call: Nets in 6.
(4) Cleveland Cavaliers vs. (5) Washington Wizards- The super-heroics of LeBron James will be put to the test against the equally impressive Gilbert Arenas and the more experienced Wizards. I think the foibles of the various other Cavs ( Larry Hughes’ and Dwight Gooden’s consistent shooting woes, Zydrunas Ilgauskus’ inability to guard other big men) will cost the Cavs some games, but the team as a whole comes together often enough to win the series. The Call: Cavaliers in 6.
Western Conference
(1) San Antonio Spurs vs. (8) Sacramento Kings- This series could go one of two ways, either the Spurs come out motivated and sweep the Kings by an embarrassing margin, or the Kings play crafty and feisty and draw the series out to a full seven games. Then the Kings will inevitably lose the ultimate game due to the latest on-court craziness by Ron Artest. Some things are just destined to happen. I know which version I would prefer to watch, but I think the other is much more likely. The Call: Spurs in 4.
(2) Phoenix Suns vs. (7) Los Angeles Lakers- Kobe Bryant proved just how incredible he is the season. This has a lot of experts looking for the upset in this match-up. I don’t buy it, even if Kobe could win as many as three games in a playoff series by himself then his teammates still have to win at least one. I don’t see that happening. The Lakers only beat the Suns once during the regular season, I see about the same thing happening in the post-season. The Call: Suns in 5.
(3) Denver Nuggets vs. (6) Los Angeles Clippers- Two very motivated figures will decide this series, Carmelo Anthony and Sam Cassel. ‘Melo has to prove he’s on the level of LeBron and Wade. Cassel has to clear his name after the collapse of the 2003-04 Timberwolves. Sam I Am may not be the talent ‘Melo is, but he has more playoff experience, and that counts for much more. The Call: Clippers in 6.
(4) Dallas Mavericks vs. (5) Memphis Grizzlies- I understand that the Grizzlies haven’t won a single playoff game in their entire franchise history. That’s tough because the Mavs, have the “we should be the three seed” chip on their shoulder. Dirk Nowitski is going to demolish Pau Gasol, and the match-up at every other position favors Dallas, if only slightly. Oh, what the heck I’ll say they win one, probably at home probably when the Mavs try to cruise through Game 4. The Call: Mavericks in 5.
SECOND ROUND
Eastern Conference
(1) Detroit Pistons vs. (4) Cleveland Cavaliers- All the flaws that Cavs were able to cover for in the first round will be totally exposed by the methodical and deliberate play of the Pistons. I expect that LBJ will put on at least one game for the ages, and win one, maybe two, games, but this is a team game, and as fantastic an individual as James is, Detroit is the ultimate team. The Call: Pistons in 5.
(2) Miami Heat vs. (3) New Jersey Nets- This same match-up happened last year in the first round and the Heat swept. This year however, Richard Jefferson is healthy, Jason Kidd is back to his court-general play-making self, and Vince Carter will be coming off a playoff series win and swaggering like he’s the second-coming of James Worthy. The Heat’s bad team chemistry will catch-up to them, as a team with three players shows them how to play real basketball. The Call: Nets in 7.
Western Conference
(1) San Antonio Spurs vs. (4) Dallas Mavericks- If the Spurs are rolling and playing like champions, then this prediction could look very silly. However, I posit, that everything we’ve seen out of the Spurs this season, from Tim Duncan’s foot to the endless close-ups of Eva Longoria in the audience, has been a build up to their inevitable collapse against a more passionate and more focused team. I think the Mavs will be that team. The Call: Mavericks in 6.
(2) Phoenix Suns vs. (6) Los Angeles Clippers- What’s interesting about this match-up is that the Clippers are the team that looks better on paper. They have more size, better defense, and the sheer athletic strength to score at will. Phoenix has been at the same disadvantage the whole season, but they just play a different style of basketball. They use speed to counter size, spacing to counter defense, and leverage to counter strength. This series will look much the same as many of their regular season games. They use an opening blitz of scoring, a period of study and strategy, and then a closing stretch of doing just enough to stay in front and win the game, or in this case series. The Call: Suns in 5.
CONFERENCE FINALS
Eastern Conference
(1) Detroit Pistons vs. (3) New Jersey Nets- This renewal of a postseason rivalry will likely to be fierce and exciting. The Nets match-up well against the Pistons at three positions, but the Pistons still have the edge at 4 positions. The math is pretty simple. The Call: Pistons in 6.
Western Conference
(2) Phoenix Suns vs. (4) Dallas Mavericks- I have insisted for some time that the Mavericks are the last team the Suns want to face in the playoffs, because they can keep up with them in open court and beat them in half court. Dirk’s as good as Steve Nash at seeing the flow of the game, and you can bet Avery Johnson will have a brilliant strategy all planned out. Sorry Phoenix like most sun sets, its just a mater of time before this happens. The Call: Dallas in 7.
FINALS
Detroit Pistons vs. Dallas Mavericks- A lot of people lost faith in the Pistons' dominance toward the end of the season. They worried about injuries. They said they lost their psychological edge. They pointed to a few teams that could beat them in a playoff series. Fortunately for the Pistons the Mavericks aren’t quite the team to top them. The fans in Dallas will be super-hyped to see a Finals series come to Dallas, but that won’t be enough to push the Mavs, who play with machine-like efficiency, over the Pistons, who play like a force of nature. Only a massive injury to one of the Pistons starters could sidetrack this championship. The Call: Pistons in 6.
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