Could movie buffs beat Vegas?

The house always wins.

Well, not quite always, but often enough that casinos are multimillion dollar businesses and thousands of people have to seek treatment for gambling addiction, because making bets has ruined their lives. The house makes a fortune and gamblers file for bankruptcy, because the house knows more than the bettors. Casinos are built by exploiting the common person's ignorance about statistics. Almost every game puts the gambler at a massive disadvantage. When the house doesn't have a built in advantage like when taking sports wagers, they try to stay ahead of the public by having far more information. Bookmakers hire highly intelligent people who have a level of expertise no ordinary person can match. When a casino sets the odds for a wager, they have put massive amounts of research into predicting both the likely outcome and the probable distribution of bets they will receive. If you want to make a living wagering on sports, you better have a high IQ and work ethic to match. Just scratching out wins on fifty-three percent of your bets would put you in an elite class of gambler. However there may be a few rare situations where the sharps in Las Vegas don't have the most information.

For special events bookmakers will accept bets outside their normal purview of sports. They will occasionally offer up odds on things happening in pop culture, like reality show outcomes or awards ceremonies. Suddenly a business built around some of the sharpest sports experts in the world has to venture out of their comfort zone where others know more than they do. This gives bettor a rare chance to gamble on a somewhat level playing field. If the casinos aren't the experts, then maybe you could be the expert, or at least find someone who is to advise you.

I believe the annual Academy Awards offer such an opportunity. Plenty of people love movies, and some of them enjoy having the chance to gamble on the highest of Hollywood honors. Casinos gladly accept their action knowing it doesn't take much information to beat the hoi polloi. However a very few film buffs may have the advantage over Vegas. For those of us who study and scrutinize the Academy Awards like religious texts, we can spot those special situations that professional gambler's refer to as value. Sometimes the bookmakers misjudge the odds they should offer for a particular outcome. That means bettors can earn a payoff disproportionate to the actual likelihood of the result occurring. The most clever and committed Oscar watchers know that upsets do occur with some regularity. Actors, writers, directors, and even whole pictures have bested expectations and won when someone else was presumed to have the golden statue coming their way.  So it could pay off to lay some money on the Oscars, if you have reason to believe the reward outweighs the risk. For anyone who may be interested I will provide -FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY- my assessment of the major awards and where I think the sharps may have it wrong. Remember these are not my predictions of who will win, though I may mention that, this is about getting the best value for your betting dollar.

We'll start with the "major" categories, for which gambling odds are readily available.

BEST LEADING ACTRESS-

The Nominees:
Marion Cotillard for Two Days, One Night- 60/1
Felicity Jones for The Theory of Everything- 40/1
Julianne Moore for Still Alice- 1/9
Rosamund Pike for Gone Girl- 25/1
Reese Witherspoon for Wild- 8/1

Best Bet: Bettors can gain an advantage by exploiting an area of ignorance. When the bookmakers or the general public don't have a full picture of the contenders for the award the odds can get skewed. We all know that the kinds of movies that win Oscars usually only get a limited release and few people see them. This is especially true for foreign language films. As such most people know nothing about the film Two Days, One Night. While I haven't seen Marion Cotillard's performance, I have seen the results of film awards that usually forecast the results of the Oscars. So far Mme. Cotillard is the only actress other than the favorite Julianne Moore to win a major award for starring in a movie while being female. In my estimation that should give her the second best odds. Casinos prefer to have money spread among all options, so no matter what happens they never stand to lose too much. Since no one saw the movie, no one is betting on Cotillard, so the bookies have to offer longer odds to attract action and spread out the risk. That gives you a great chance to make a value bet on Marion Cotillard.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS-

The Nominees:
Patricia Arquette for Boyhood- 1/7
Laura Dern for Wild- 28/1
Keira Knightly for The Imitation Game- 25/1
Emma Stone for Birdman-  12/1
Meryl Streep for Into the Woods- 15/1

Best Bet: Patricia Arquette's dominance of the preliminary awards may make you think putting money on her is a safe bet. That may be true, but that does mean putting a lot of cash on the line for a small payoff. If an upset happens does happen, you'll be in the hurt, and you'll have missed out on a great money making opportunity. To select a dark horse most likely to surprise the field I looked to a few key factors. Remember that the Academy is mostly composed of older men. When they decide which actress they want to bestow an award upon, they tend to pick the woman they would most want to sleep with. (Hey, don't blame me, it's the Oscar voters who are sexist.) That narrows the race to Keira Knightly and Emma Stone as the two youngest and prettiest nominees. Between them only Knightly has been previously nominated. That indicates she already has the respect of some AMPAS members. I like the potential of earning a big prize if the obvious favorite doesn't come through, so I'd bet on Keira Knightly.

BEST LEADING ACTOR-

The Nominees:
Steve Carell for Foxcatcher- 30/1
Bradley Cooper for American Sniper- 75/1
Benedict Cumberbatch for The Imitation Game- 20/1
Michael Keaton for Birdman-  5/6
Eddie Redmayne for The Theory of Everything- 11/10

Best Bet: Though Michael Keaton seems to be the heavy favorite, there's a strong chance that he'll have some tight competition. While Keaton took the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Comedy, Eddie Redmayne snared the parallel award for Drama. That would make Redmayne the most likely contender to beat Keaton, but that doesn't mean betting on Eddie gives you the best value. With a bet of $10 only returning $11 in winnings, that's a pretty small payoff for what are likely some long odds of an upset. (Also there's the chance the voters will see Redmayne's re-dic-u-lous performance in Jupiter Ascending, and squash his hopes like a post-Norbit Eddie Murphey.) If you want to bet on an upset bet on one that can reward you proportionate to the odds. For this category, I like Bradley Cooper as a long shot for a few reasons. First, Cooper has now been nominated three times in three years. That indicates a lot of voters like him and some may think he's due for the award. Second he has to portray a character that many people already know. Chris Kyle was on our TV screens just a couple of years ago. Keaton plays a fictional person (who is really just a fictionalized version of himself, so where's the challenge there). The people played by Carell and Cumberbatch are both obscure figures of whom voters won't have preexisting impressions. Redmayne does portray the world famous Stephen Hawking, but mostly during the period of his life before he became the man we recognize. Trying to recreate a living person when we can compare Cooper's performance to our memories of that person is a risky move. Sometimes the Academy likes to reward those kinds of risks. Finally, American Sniper has become the biggest box office hit of all the films up for Best Picture. There are members of AMPAS who like to reward financial success. Some of the glory for the film as a whole could give its star a much needed bump in the voting.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR-

The Nominees:
Robert Duvall for The Judge- 30/1
Ethan Hawke for Boyhood- 12/1
Edward Norton for Birdman- 10/1
Mark Ruffalo for Foxcatcher-  14/1
J. K. Simmons for The Theory of Everything- 1/5

Best Bet: This is another category with a heavy favorite. So all we need to find the best value bet is determine which of the nominees has the best chance of upsetting J. Jonah Simmons. Robert Duvall may be deeply respected, but very few people are passionate about The Judge as a movie. All the other nominees have past nominations and respectable reputations, so they're all even there. I think Edward Norton may have an edge though. Part of the appeal of Michael Keaton's performance in Birdman comes from the winking nature of an actor famous for playing a superhero in a movie that mocks superhero movies. Well Edward Norton once played the Hulk, and famously had a contentious split with Marvel studios over their designs for the character. Now he plays the "pure" theater actor who serves as the foil to Keaton's former blockbuster star. It's a roll that many Oscar voters imagine themselves playing in their real lives. If AMPAS really wants to flip the bird* to all the comic book inspired films that dominate the box office, they could give the trophy to Norton.

BEST DIRECTOR-

The Nominees:
Alejandro G. Iñárritu for Birdman- 7/1
Richard Linklater for Boyhood- 1/6
Bennett Miller for Foxcatcher- 45/1
Wes Anderson for The Grand Budapest Hotel- 22/1
Morten Tyldum for The Imitation Game- 18/1

Best Bet: This one honestly confounds me. I know Richard Linklater walked away with the Golden Globe award, but in 5 of the last 7 years the Oscar didn't go to the Globe winner. Also, I know that for most of the Academy Award's history the prizes for Best Picture and Best Director went to the same movie, and most people assume that's still the case. In the last couple of decades that has changed dramatically. Of the last 16 years the winner of Best Director didn't direct the Best Picture 6 different times! Boyhood may very well win Best Picture, but that by no means makes Linklater a lock. Based on the buzz, I would make Alejandro Iñárritu the favorite to win. Since Vegas gave him the next best odds after the presumed favorite, they seem to agree. When I can win $7 for every dollar bet on someone I judge to be the favorite, I call that a value bet.

BEST PICTURE-

The Nominees:
American Sniper- 75/1 
Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)- 18/1
Boyhood- 2/5
The Grand Budapest Hotel- 9/1
The Imitation Game- 7/1
Selma- 20/1
The Theory of Everything- 30/1
Whiplash- 60/1

Best Bet: You could actually make an argument for a few of the nominees as good value bets. Because American Sniper has a turned into a box office sensation, there will be some AMPAS members who feel that sort of popularity should be rewarded. On the other hand Chris Kyle's story has stirred up some political controversy, and the Academy has distanced itself from similar films in the past (e.g. Zero Dark Thirty). After Selma missed out in almost every category, there came a major backlash against what many perceived as a racially charged oversight. Historically the Academy has underrepresented minorities among their nominees and winners, but that's changed in recent years. More black nominees have won Oscars from 2001 on than won in the previous 73 years of award's existence. There may be enough voters rallying behind Selma to pull of an unexpected win, similar to what happened with Argo a couple of years ago. Though the odds of that happening are probably longer than the 20 to 1 pay out the bookmakers are offering. I believe Birdman represents the best value bet. It has favorable odds to win Best Actor, Best Original Screenplay, and Best Director. A film that wins all of those prizes is actually pretty likely to win Best Picture. Certainly it's more likely that 18 to 1. So you have a great opportunity to win big by betting on Birdman.

Now I will give a brief (relatively for me) rundown my selections for the best bets to win all of the other categories.
  
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS- Dawn of the Planet of the Apes may have more fans among Oscar voters than any of the 3 nominated super-hero movies and the divisive Interstellar. The film made major strides improving motion capture technology, which is probably the future of special FX.

BEST SOUND EDITING- American Sniper successfully recreated the chaotic sounds of battle. That's an impressive feat that usually garners awards

BEST SOUND MIXING- Whiplash had to incorporate the sounds of musical instruments in realistic, but nuanced ways. I expect the voters will respond more to those subtleties than to the louder competition.
 
 BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT- "The Phone Call" is an emotionally powerful little fil- y'know what? No one cares about this category. Let's move on.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT- "Feast" has the advantage of being paired with a widely scene and loved Disney movie. Plus you should never bet against a movie featuring a cute puppy.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT- "Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1" has an incredible one-two punch of being emotionally wrenching and urgently topical. That's like catnip for Oscar voters.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN- The Grand Budapest Hotel was skillfully and intricately produced to such a gorgeous degree, its visual splendor even stand out among Wes Anderson's oeuvre.

BEST HAIR & MAKEUP- The Grand Budapest Hotel; see above

BEST COSTUMES- The Grand Budapest Hotel; see above above

BEST ORIGINAL SONG- "Glory" from Selma will win what I suppose you could call a token award.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE- The Theory of Everything had to lean on its score a lot. How else are going to milk a lot of emotion about a guy who spends most of the movie unable to move?

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM- Ida deals with the aftermath of the Holocaust in Poland through the lens of an individuals profound story. And as Kate Winslet taught us Holocaust movies win Oscars!

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE- CitizenFour has won just about every preliminary award, so I expect the Academy to follow suit.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE- How to Train Your Dragon 2 will likely win, because major releases from US animation studios have a heavy advantage in this category. I know the Academy usually doesn't honor sequels, but I figure How to Train Your Dragon 2 won't be punished for that as much as Big Hero 6.

BEST FILM EDITING- Boyhood is your likely winner. Usually the awards for Best Film Editing goes to the film that wins Best Picture. So with Boyhood favored to win the top prize, you should bet on it winning in this category too.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY-  Birdman pulled off an astounding feat by filming the movie so that it appeared as if most of it was done with one continuous camera shot. Any director of photography who can pull that off deserves an award.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY- The Imitation Game would be my pick. This category can get confusing, because apparently no one can agree on what it means for a screenplay to be "adapted". Whiplash was considered an original screenplay by the Writers' Guild, but is an adapted screenplay according to to AMPAS. So be warned that this is my least confident prediction.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY- The Grand Budapest Hotel has the key preliminary awards under its belt. I expect that to continue. The Academy has a habit of rewarding young-ish auteur filmmakers with a screenplay award. After two past nominations, look for Wes Anderson to finally land an Oscar.

Those are my predictions. I wish you all the best of luck with your Oscar pools. Remember if any of you do wager money on these predictions, you owe me 10% of your winnings.

Arbirtrary Bowl Predictions: Alumni Face-Off- BCS Bowls

The first year Clemson graduated students was also the first year they played a football game. Coincidence?

The biggest bowl games of the college football calendar deserve the best predictions I can muster. (Too bad I'm still pretty hung over from New Year's Eve.) So I have arbitrarily chosen to pick the games based on a comparison of alumni I arbitrarily select from all the schools involved and then analyze them based on my completely subjective opinions. After all of this I probably haven't offered any useful gambling advice, but hopefully I spurred some interesting conversations.

Rose Bowl- 5pm 1/2/2012
Rose Bowl, Pasadena CA
Wisconsin Badgers vs. Oregon Ducks (-6.5)
The Alumni:

John Muir

VS.

Phil Knight

Very few match-ups have featured alumni who would probably hate each other. John Muir was an early vocal advocate for environmental issues. He was a naturalist who founded the Sierra Club and helped to preserve Yosemite and other American National Parks. The state of California chose to honor John Muir when they printed their state's commemorative quarter. If here were around today he would likely spend his time challenging major companies for their practices that harm the environment. One company the Sierra Club has clashed with is Nike, founded by Phil Knight. Knight turned a small side-business selling shoes into the world's leading producer of sporting goods and apparel. He has been a tremendous booster of the University of Oregon, getting them uniforms, equipment, and even a new basketball arena. Nike has gained a reputation for controversial business practices. Knight would doubtlessly find activists like Muir a hindrance to his business.

The Prediction: These alumni indicate very different game plans by the teams. Wisconsin will try to stay "grounded" and run the ball hoping to preserve a small lead. Meanwhile the sleek and modern style of Oregon will show in their aggressive attacking style. Over time the Ducks will find an opening and gain a lead, and the Badgers won't be able to catch up
Oregon- 48 Wisconsin- 28. 

Fiesta Bowl- 8:30pm 1/2/2012
University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale AZ
Stanford Cardinal vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys (-3.5)
The Alumni:

Herbert Hoover

VS.

T. Boone Pickens

You may not appreciate how tremendously successful both of these alumni are. Despite the common perception of Hoover as a terrible president, he actually had a fabulous career outside of his time in the Oval Office. He was a successful businessman. He organized humanitarian efforts surrounding World War I. As the U.S. Secretary of Commerce, he spearheaded a number of efforts to help modernize America. If the entire global economy didn't collapse during his time in office, we might remember Herbert Hoover in kinder terms. Similarly T. Boone Pickens has done more that just succeed at the oil business. He has become a powerful political player. He supported the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth group that attacked John Kerry's 2004 presidential campaign. Lately he has been pushing for a radical shift in American energy policy toward petroleum alternatives.

The Prediction: I foresee a game that may appear to be disappointingly low scoring, but actually is very entertaining for football purists. The teams will both play a smash-mouth style and execute sharply. The defenses will look good keep the game moving at a quick clip. Overall the Cardinal will have a more flexible attack and scratch out a few more points than the Cowboys.
Stanford -19 Oklahoma State- 13 

Sugar Bowl- 8:30pm 1/3/2012
Superdome, New Orleans LA

Michigan Wolverines (-1.5) vs. Virginia Tech Hokies
The Alumni:

President Gerald Ford

VS.

Homer Hickam

Usually when the other school can list a U.S. President as an alumnus the other school would have a hard time matching-up. In the case of Gerald Ford though, he may be a little vulnerable. After all he was never elected on a presidential ticket and he only finished out a term after Nixon's resignation. I also really admire Homer Hickam who has the inspiring story of rising from a small coal mining town to become a NASA scientist. The reason I give the edge to Ford is because he combines a notable life after graduating with a successful career as a football player when he was at Michigan.

The Prediction: You may not enjoy watching this game. Michigan will alternate between looking sharp and committing costly errors. The Hokies won't be able to capitalize on the numerous turnovers and penalties, and will only be able to keep the game close without ever really threatening.
Michigan- 20 Virginia Tech-16


Okay, in previous posts I have tried to disguise fake bowl games as the genuine article. Since this post only focuses on the BCS bowls, I knew it would be impossible to convince you some new high profile bowl had been created. So instead I have proposed an alternative game. Instead of controversially picking Michigan and Virginia Tech for the Sugar Bowl, they could have picked the two highest ranked teams eligible for BCS bowls, Boise State and Kansas State.
Aspartame Bowl- 8:30pm 1/3/2012
Superdome, New Orleans LA
Boise State Broncos (-6.5) vs. Kansas State Wildcats
The Alumni:

Frances Rogers one of the protagonists of the novel Little Lost River, attends Boise State

VS.

The hero of the film The Secret of  My Success, played by Michael J. Fox, is fresh out of Kansas State

In honor of this clearly fictional bowl, I have selected two clearly fictional characters. Now I have neither read the book or watched the movie in which these characters appear, so I cannot give much of a description. In Little Lost River the character Frances Rogers attempts to bond with another young woman after a tragedy while she transitions from high school to college at Boise State. Michael J. Fox played Brantley Foster a recent college graduate who travels from Manhattan, Kansas to Manhattan, New York. He somehow becomes a success despite a comedic plot trying to get in the way. I have to assume the KSU grad had the more impressive fictional accomplishment.

The Prediction: Boise State will start slow and stay that way. Kansas State will have an awful start, but they'll use a trick play to gain momentum. After getting their spirits lifted by a surprise score, they will coast to a win.

Kansas State-17 Boise State-12

Orange Bowl- 8:30pm 1/4/2012
Sun Life Stadium, Miami FL
West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Clemson Tigers (-3.5)
The Alumni:

Jerry West

VS.

Jonathan Hickman at a comic book convention

Jerry West was a legend on the basketball court. He is even rumored to serve as the model for the NBA logo. After his playing days he became a very successful NBA general manager. He headed up multiple championship teams and won the NBA Executive of the Year award twice. That's all pretty impressive for a kid from the banks of Cabin Creek in West Virginia. Unfortunately for Clemson the only alumnus of theirs I likes is Jonathan Hickman. He has made hit independent comic books and written for the major superhero titles. I even had the pleasure of speaking to him once. However I don't think anyone is turning his silhouette into a logo anytime soon. 

The Prediction: In a total route the Mountaineers dominate from beginning to end of this game. I would watch something else when this game is on.
West Virginia- 42 Clemson- 13

BCS Championship Game- 8:30pm 1/9/2012
Superdome, New Orleans LA
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Louisiana State Tigers (-1)
The Alumni:

Bear Bryant

VS.

James Carville

I would have loved it if the championship game featured the most distinguished alumni, but since Harvard and Yale don't play top level football that's unlikely. Instead we have two people known for their incomprehensible accents and what they have on the top of their heads (for Bryant the famous houndstooth hat, for Carville his shiny bald dome). Paul "Bear" Bryant  is THE face of Alabama football, as a former player he came back to Tuscaloosa to coach the team. His run as the leader of the Crimson Tide remains the stuff of legend. Carville was one of the key players in Bill Clinton's political team. Since helping win Clinton the 1992 presidential election, he has become a wildly entertaining TV personality. If you need someone to come on camera and argue the liberal position, or just say something outrageous, then Carville is your man.

The Prediction: LSU will try to pull off some crazy trick plays, and will fight all the way through the game, but Alabama will demonstrate a superior execution of football basics. It will be a close game and hotly contests from start to finish, but the Crimson Tide will never be at serious risk of losing. And I don't care because I think they should not have played this game at all. 

I hope everyone enjoys the bowl season, and I hope to bring you more bowl predictions the next year I have a good idea and time to write.

2011 Arbirtrary Bowl Predictions: Alumni Face-Off Part 4

The 1905 Pittsburgh football team (note: at the time of this photograph the University of Pittsburgh was named the Western University of Pennsylvania and football was still referred to as "hand-soccer")

A new year has begun (which for some means they resolved to stop gambling) and the bowl season will conclude soon (which means we have a great excuse to break that resolution already). I invite you to base your first wagers on 2012 on my arbitrary bowl selection method. As explained in earlier posts in this series, I have analyzed the bowls by comparing representative alumni of the schools involved in each game. I enjoy giving absurd gambling tips so much, that this year I have even created fictional bowls. While you read this post, try to guess which bowl is actually a fake.

TicketCity Bowl- 12pm 1/2/2012
Cotton Bowl, Dallas TX
Houston Cougars (-9) vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
The Alumni:

Matt Mullenweg

 VS.

Herman Fisher

Since pretty much everything I do in life can be described as "derivative", I have to tip my cap to the innovators in life, such as these to alumni. Matt Mullenweg may not have had an award-winning movie made about his life, but he founded websites that reach a billion people every month. One of his creations, WordPress, is one of the most popular blogging platforms on the web. Herman Fisher is the "Fisher" in "Fisher-Price" toys, the toy company he founded during the Great Depression. This man created the term "preschool toys" and landed the first deal to produce licensed Disney toys. Odds our your childhood was shaped by the influence of Herman Fisher. In the end though I think I will favor Mullenweg, because we bloggers have to stick together

The Prediction: You can expect a real contrast of styles in this game (Do I use that phrase to much?). Penn State will play fundamental, "ground-and-pound" football to try to limit the wide-open Cougar spread attack. The Nittany Lions want to keep the Cougar's offense off the field and make it a physical contest. I foresee Houston making the most of every possession though and putting up enough points to win handily.
Houston- 35 Penn State-20

Gator Bowl- 1pm 1/2/2012
Everbank Field, Jacksonville FL
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Florida Gators (-1.5)
The Alumni:

Jesse Owens

VS.

Erin Andrews

Major public universities provide large pools of alumni to select from, so I can usually find something interesting. In this case, I found two people who were national sensations 70 years apart. The Buckeyes produced  track and field legend, Jesse Owens, who won four gold medals at the 1936 Summer Olympics in Berlin. The dominance of an African-American proved the falsehood of Hitler's claims of Aryan superiority. Former member of the University of Florida dance team, Erin Andrews reaffirms the superiority of pretty talented people. She has become one of the most popular personalities on ESPN and is such a hit online her nickname is "Erin Pageviews", because any pictures of her draw lots of hits (or at least I'm hoping that's the case). As excited as Erin Andres makes the masses, I think Jesse Owens has to be favored for performing one of the greatest athletic feats in history. At the 1935 Big Ten track meet he claimed 4 world records in 45 minutes.I'll give you a second to pick your jaws off the floor.

The Prediction: This game will be fast paced and exciting all the way through. Both alumni indicate football teams capable of scoring lots of points in a hurry. The decisive moment will come in the middle of the game when Ohio State will score multiple times in a few minutes of gametime, which will give them an insurmountable lead.
Ohio State- 45 Florida- 34

Outback Bowl- 1pm 1/2/2012
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa FL
Michigan State Spartans vs. Georgia Bulldogs (-2)
The Alumni:

Magic Johnson No. 32 (photo by S. Lipofsky)

VS.

Herschel Walker on a Sports Illustrated cover

We have some superstar athletes to compare in this match-up. Erving "Magic" Johnson starred in the most watched college basketball game of all time. Then he authored a Hall of Fame career as a professional basketball player, winning multiple championships. Then he brought new levels of attention to the HIV crisis, as the most famous HIV-positive person. Then he became a successful businessman generating hundreds of millions of dollars worth of net worth. Now he has become a popular basketball analyst on TV. Herschel Walker may be considered to be the greatest college football player ever, but that is a lot to overcome.

The Prediction: The Bulldogs will run the ball well, and that will be about all they have work for them. Otherwise the Spartans will dominate the game in all three phases. Michigan State will score just about every way they can (e.g. returning kickoffs and interceptions for touchdowns) to cruise to an easy victory.
Michigan State- 48 Georgia- 16

Capital One Bowl- 1pm 1/2/2012
Citrus Bowl, Orlando FL
Nebraska Cornhuskers (-1) vs. South Carolina Gamecocks
The Alumni:

Heeeeeeeeeeeeeeeere's Johnny!

VS.

Darius "NOT Hootie" Rucker

As you may have noticed in my earlier posts, when entertainers meet I predict entertaining games. These alumni are especially entertaining. Johnny Carson hosted the Tonight Show for decades. Because millions dozed off watching his show year after year, he became the face of the late night television for multiple generations of Americans. Darius Rucker first gained fame as the lead singer for quintessential 1990's band Hootie and the Blowfish. They had a runaway hit album, then fell into obscurity. In recent years Rucker has risen to fame and fortune again as a solo artist performing, I kind you not, country western music.

The Prediction: The omens tell me that South Carolina will open strong take a big lead early. The Cornhuskers will just keep plugging away, to eventually take the lead. The Game Cocks will launch a furious comeback attempt in the closing minutes, but will ultimately fall just short.
Nebraska- 29 South Carolina- 28


North American Bowl- 8pm 1/5/2012
Rogers Centre, Toronto ON
Miami University RedHawks vs. Navy Midshipmen (-9)
The Alumni:

President Benjamin Harrison

VS.

President Jimmy Carter

Naturally the only bowl game played outside of the United States should involve two schools that produced Presidents of the United States. Neither of these men may be remembered as particularly great presidents, but I think you have to pick a POTUS over other alumni, especially since there aren't man times when two teams to produce presidents meet in bowl games. (Especially since Whittier College and Eureka College stink at football.) I think Navy has a big advantage in this game after comparing these two Commanders-in-Chief. President Harrison is the only president to lose a presidential election the someone who was voted out of the White House. President Carter has spent his time since leaving office as a leaded for humanitarian causes eventually earning a Nobel Peace Prize for his work. I think that might make him the greatest ex-president ever, with the possible exception of the dude who came back to beat Harrison.

The Prediction: The RedHawks may claim an early lead, but look for Navy to get stronger as the game goes on. The Midshipmen will look impressive after a slow start, and the RedHawks will deliver a thoroughly forgettable performance.
Navy- 42 Miami U.- 13

Cotton Bowl- 8pm 1/6/2012
Cowboys Stadium, Arlington TX
Kansas State Wildcats vs. Arkansas Razorbacks (-8.5)
The Alumni:

Taylor Mali

VS.

Pat Summerall  pictured on the cover of his autobiography

Both of these representative alumni have earned their livings with their voices. Mali has become possibly the most famous slam poet in the world. He uses his performances to try to inspire others to become teachers. So he will represent the school where he first taught. For millions of Americans, when they imagine a play-by-play announcer calling a football game, the voice they hear in their head belongs to Pat Summerall. he spent years covering NFL games and had such a great voice it has been used to narrate everything from golf video games to Looney Tunes cartoons.

The Prediction: Both teams will play with a lot of passion. Kansas State will lean on their strength of running the ball. Arkansas will prove more versatile and will keep KSU off balance all game. The Razorbacks will wear out the Wildcats as the game goes on, giving them a comfortable lead to end the game.
Arkansas 30- Kansas State- 21

BBVA Compass Bowl- 1pm 1/7/2012
Legion Field, Birmingham AL
Southern Methodist Mustangs vs. Pittsburgh Panthers (-7)
The Alumni:

Lamar Hunt (photo from Bat for The Cure)

VS.

Gene Kelly smiling as his own name hover in front of him

You have to salute the audacity of Lamar Hunt who was a wealthy oilman that loved football. Since the NFL wouldn't  let him join, he started the American Football League. He eventually forced the two teams to merge. His team still plays on as the Kansas City Chiefs. Gene Kelly had a remarkable career as a dancer and movie star. His film Singin' in the Rain, is generally considered one of the best movies ever made. Kelly was so iconic that when he died ABC didn't do the standard memorial. Instead they acknowledged his passing by playing his famous "Singin' in the Rain" sequence, an unprecedented tribute. I would love it if when I died my entire life could be perfectly summed up with a few minutes of film that I created.

The Prediction: I predict a bit of an ugly game at first. Both teams will need some time to get into the flow of the game. Once they do though it will be a fun match-up. The Mustangs will play aggressively and try for big gains every chance they get. The Panthers will execute flawlessly and use graceful play to gain leverage. Pitt wins the game with a well played 4th quarter to put SMU away.
Pitt- 30 SMU- 23 

GoDaddy.Com Bowl- 9pm 1/8/2012
Ladd-Peebles Stadium. Mobile AL
Arkansas State Red Wolves (-1) vs. Norther Illinois Huskies
The Alumni:

Arkansas Governor Mike Beebe

VS.

Markos "Kos" Moulitsas

Political match-ups can be tricky. I worry that it will look like I am choosing the victor based on my politics. I try to make all these predictions based not personal preference, but on a fair assessment of the relative merits of the respective alumni. In this case I feel like winning the Arkansas gubernatorial election isn't as much of an accomplishment when compared to founding one of the most popular political websites, Daily Kos. I just know this post will draw Bill O'Reilly's ire, for supporting someone he considers to be a "left-wing extremist".

The Prediction: This game will be more of physical struggle. It won't be much fun to watch, as both teams will seem more intent on injuring the other team than scoring points. I expect NIU will carry a narrow lead throughout the game to win in "not as close as the score" fashion.
NIU-23 Arkansas State-20


The games are starting soon enough, so I'll let you stop reading now. I will have my prediction for the BCS Bowls in the next installment.

2011 Arbirtrary Bowl Predictions: Alumni Face-Off Part 3

Above the graduation picture of the Princeton Class of 1879. Among that group was a future Congressman, a Supreme Court Justice, and a U.S. President, but not one notable football player.

Now that we have reached the midsection of this bowl season preview, I feel comfortable dispensing with the pleasantries. If you need more information about how this set of arbitrary predictions work, I invite you to visit my earlier posts in this series. I will try to make this brief since we have a lot of bowls concentrated before the New Year. So prepare yourself for a load of college football and a whole mess of alumni.

Armed Forces Bowl- 12pm 12/30/2011
Gerald J. Ford Stadium, University Park TX
Brigham Young Cougars (-1.5) vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane
The Alumni:

Jeopardy!-Champion Ken Jennings

VS.

Author S. E. Hinton

As the largest religious university in the United States, Brigham Young has had a plethora of notable graduates. Contrast that with Tulsa, which has one sentence written under the section for "Alumni" on its Wikipedia page, "This section requires expansion." Still Tulsa produced S. E. Hinton who wrote novels like The Outsiders and That Was Then, This Is Now which every moody kid reads at some point growing up. Of all the BYU alumni, I chose Kenn Jennings because I am a trivia nerd just like he is. My second choice was Mitt Romney. (Man, will that guy every finish in 1st place?!) 

The Prediction: I am getting visions of a face paced game with some pretty good offensive showings. The Cougars will have the craftier game plan and pile on the points just like Jennings built up insurmountable leads during his game show run.
BYU- 41 Tulsa- 31

Pinstripe Bowl- 3:20pm 12/30/2011
Yankee Stadium, New York NY
Rutgers Scarlet Knights (-2.5) vs. Iowa State Cyclones
The Alumni:

Toni Morrison

VS.

George Washington Carver

Comparing these two, comes down to a choice between comparing the full range of contributions they made to American life, or comparing the pigeonholes they have been forced into. Carver will forever be known as the man who invented peanut butter. A legacy that is both factually incorrect and ignorant of the sweeping contributions he made to agricultural life for poor Americans. Morrison is probably best known as Oprah's favorite author, but that doesn't do justice to the last American to earn the Nobel Prize for literature. Carver did more overall, but Morrison is at least known for work she actually did.

The Prediction: This game will start as an even match, low scoring and slow going. At some point in the second half, a blown call will give the Cyclones the lead. It will change the momentum of the game, but their margin of victory will be much larger, diminishing the importance of that one play.
Iowa State- 31 Rutgers- 20

Fandango Bowl- 5pm 12/30/2011
Angel Stadium, Anaheim CA
Hawai'i Warriors vs. Southern California Trojans (-12)
The Alumni:

Bette Middler

VS.

George Lucas

 It only makes sense that the game once known as the Hollywood Bowl, should feature some serious star power in the alumni. George Lucas remains one of the most famous and successful film directors ever. He has created a multibillion dollar multimedia empire out of the Star Wars franchise, even if you and everyone you know hated the prequels. The Divine Miss M may not seem very Hawaiian in appearance or manner, but she has had the most celebrated life of anyone to attend the University of Hawai'i. This is a difficult choice for me between one of my favorite singers and the creator of one of my favorite movies.  

The Prediction: Much like Lucas, USC will open huge racking up lots of points early only to collapse in the second half (RE: the aforementioned prequels). Much like Middler, the Warriors will triumph because of their durability and staying power, allowing them to sneak a victory out of a late score.
Hawai'i- 35 USC- 34

Music City Bowl- 6:40pm 12/30/2011
LP Field, Nashville TN
Mississippi State Bulldogs (-7) vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons
The Alumni:

John Grisham (photo by S. Brenner)

VS.

Tim Duncan

If you could pick to have the life of either of these famous alumni, you couldn't make a bad selection. You could be the author of novels that made courtroom drama secy again and sold roughly 3.7 billion copies. Or you could be the greatest power forward in basketball history. (Yeah, that's right! You heard me Karl Malone.) They are both insanely rich, and being a 4 time NBA champion is probably about equal to having 11 movies and 2 TV shows adapted from your work. Still I have to give the slight edge to Duncan, because I think it would be pretty cool to be seven feet tall.

The Prediction: This will turn into one of the best bowl games of the 2011, with both teams executing sharply. They will both look impressive, and the deciding factor will be Wake Forest taking over in the trenches. This will give them the edge in the running game, which will allow them to control the clock and turn a narrow lead into a bowl game win.
Wake Forest- 24  Mississippi State- 20

Insight Bowl- 10pm 12/30/2011
Sun Devil Stadium, Tempe AZ
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Oklahoma Sooners (-16)
The Alumni:

Nile Kinnick

VS.

Billy Sims featured on a Sports Illustrated cover

Two football greats were selected for this contest, because I appreciate what each of them represent. Billy Sims was the living embodiment of the Sooners' glory years. He was a powerful running back who dominated games. He remains a great representative for Oklahoma. After winning the Heisman Trophy himself, he always tries to start a "Boomer! Sooner!" chat at the presentation ceremony whenever a fellow Sooner wins the award. Kinnick was a terrific quarterback, and by all accounts one heckuva human being. When he won the Heisman he gave a fondly remembered speech noting the terrors of World War II, which was noteworthy because the United States hadn't yet entered the war. He would die not long after in an accident while serving in the military. Every time they flip a coin before a Big Ten football game, that coin bears Kinnick's image. Now that is a tribute I would love to earn.

The Prediction: The omens show a faltering Oklahoma team that will have to rely on the run to carry their offense. I foresee Iowa racking up lots of passing yards, but not a lot of points. The game will go to overtime and the Hawkeyes will win the toss allowing them to hold OU to a field goal before scoring a winning touchdown.
Iowa- 29 Oklahoma- 26 (OT)

Meineke Car Care Bowl- 12pm 12/31/2011
Reliant Stadium, Houston TX
Texas A&M Aggies (-11) vs. Northwestern Wildcats
The Alumni:

Neal Boortz (photo by E. Saulsberry)

VS.

Dr. Stephen T. Colbert D.F.A.

To set up an entertaining pairing, I skewed my selection criteria a bit. Loads of notable folks graduated from Northwestern, and I bet there have been Aggies more interesting than Neal Boortz -not that I could find any, but I assume they're out there somewhere. I just enjoyed the theater of pitting someone who has earned a living as an outspoken conservative pundit, and someone who has earned a living pretending to be an outspoken conservative pundit. Colbert may have a larger cult following, but I think for the purposes of predicting this game I have to favor the genuine article over the imitation.

The Prediction: The Aggies demonstrate a clear talent advantage in this game, and maximize that advantage. They grind out a convincing, if not especially pretty, victory.
Texas A&M- 24 Northwestern- 10

Sun Bowl- 2pm 12/31/2011
Sun Bowl, El Paso TX
Utah Utes vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-3.5)
The Alumni:

J.Willard Marriott

VS.

Jeff Foxworthy

Between these two alumni there can be no doubt who has had more success -at least measure monetarily. However, I cannot give the edge to Marriott, despite no matter how many billions of dollars his hotel chains are worth. I spent my wedding night in a Marriott hotel, and I have determined that the accommodations must have been to blame for my, um, disappointing performance. You can ridicule Foxworthy for milking the redneck comedy angle for all he could get. I just know I have never felt impotent frustration after listening to his jokes.

The Prediction: I foresee the Utes hurting their chances several times with costly blunders. Georgia Tech will seem to depend to heavily on basic run plays, but they will get enough big plays to win.
Georgia Tech- 24 Utah- 16

Fight Hunger Bowl- 3:30pm 12/31/2011
AT&T Park, San Fransisco CA
UCLA Bruins vs. Illinois Fighting Illini (-1.5)
The Alumni:

Dr. Maulana Karenga (center) celebrating Kwanza

VS.

Dan Savage

Since this bowl is organized around a philanthropic purpose, I thought it appropriate to select alumni who have made an impact by trying to improve the lives of others. Dr. Maulana Karenga may not be a household name, but he founded Kwanza. Plenty of people mock Kwanza as an artificial celebration. After trying to turn the Michigan-Ohio State game into a national holiday, I can assure you that founding a new holiday is a hard thing to do. Savage has also had a tremendous influence on others by starting the It Gets Better project, which tries to comfort young people suffering bullying and persecution. As a former teacher, I know how important it can be to reach out to a young teenager before tragedy strikes. Overall, I feel inclined to favor the person who founded the holiday during which this bowl game will take place.

The Prediction: You should expect a real defensive slugfest. Both teams will play with great spirit and show terrific unit cohesion in all aspects of the game. They will protect their goal lines with their lives, but I expect the Bruins to force at least one touchdown to seal their margin of victory.
UCLA- 16 Illinois- 12

Liberty Bowl- 3:30pm 12/31/2011
Liberty Bowl, Memphis TN
Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Vanderbilt Commodores (-2)
The Alumni:

Sandy Koufax

VS.

James Patterson

We have a contest between quality and quantity in this match-up. The Bearcats have one of history's greatest baseball pitchers representing them, but he had to retire before he turned 32. Patterson has produced so many popular novel, he should just add "#1 New York Times Best Seller" to the end of his name. Too bad for him, that most literary critics consider his work dreck, and he has been accused of coasting on his co-authors' abilities. 

The Prediction: I predict a lot of yards by Vanderbilt, but not a lot of points. They will run the ball a lot and dominate the time of possession. The Bearcats will stall at times, but they will make a few home run plays to score enough to win.
Cincinnati- 21 Vanderbilt- 15

Chick-fil-A Bowl- 7:30pm 12/31/2011
Georgia Dome, Atlanta GA
Virginia Cavaliers vs. Auburn Tigers (-1.5)
The Alumni:

Tina Fey (with donuts)

VS.

Charles Barkley (photo by S. Lipofsky)

Two very entertaining figures as the chosen alumni indicate a very entertaining game. Both Barkley and Fey actually have gotten better with time. After leaving Saturday Night Live Fey created the award winning show 30 Rock. After capping a great basketball career, Barkley became a legend as an commentator on TV. Oddly even Barkley's scandals have only endeared him more to the public.

The Prediction: This game will  start slow but get better as it goes. Scoring will keep increasing until the 4th quarter. I predict the final margin will come when Auburn makes a risky play that looks like it will cost them, only to have it unexpectedly pay off with a late touchdown.
Auburn- 34 Virginia- 31

Happy New Year, and I'll see you all back here for Part 4.