Rolling out the Red Carpet- Completing your Oscar Ballot

Let anyone who reads this blog know, The Cap'n is nothing if not helpful. I want those silly few who read this blog to gave the chance to reap some kind of benefit from it. Since, Oscar-watching is one of the few topic I can routinely focus on and have any form of expertise in I thought I should provide you with the best prediction advise about the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences I could muster to help you win your Oscar pools. Earlier this month, The Cap'n gave you a complete breakdown of the major categories with detailed explanations about who was favored and who could pull an upset in each one. In this entry I will provide you with information to help you predict the rest of the categories.

Often called the minor categories or the technical awards these prizes go to the people who actually do the bulk of the movie making. The nominees in these categories may not be as visible or tabloid-worthy as the actors. They may not be as identifiable and self-aggrandizing as the writers and directors. If they do their jobs well we never even think about them, but when the screw up the film is irreparably damaged. (Personally I felt Get Smart was ruined by awful lighting. And I seriously mean that.) So I feel that they deserved at least a fraction of the attention of the major categories.

If you want to use these predictions to help fill out your ballot at this Sunday's Oscar party, I suggest you go with the favorites (taken from the consensus of expert opinions available here) unless you have a special reason why you might suspect an upset. Since my previous entry on the Academy Awards took about 8,000 words, and we have about twice as many categories to get through in this round, I will try to address these categories in a more rapid fire manner. So get your pen and paper ready, because here we go . . .

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Current Favorite: Andrew Stanton for WALL-E- This is one of the easier picks, as WALL-E is the only nominee to receive support in other categories as well a sure sign that lots of voting members of the Academy loved this movie.

Tremendous Upset Potential: John Stevenson and Mark Osborne for Kung Fu Panda- There is almost no chance that WALL-E doesn't win this award, but if for some crazy reason the voters choose to pick another nominee they will likely pick the more financially successful Panda over Bolt.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE FILM
Current Favorite: Ari Folman (Israel) for Waltz with Bashir- This animated feature focusing on some of the attrocities of the Lebanese Civil War and Israel's precarious relations with its neighbors stands out as one of the most original pictures of the year. Critics love it and it has garnered many notable awards already.

Tremendous Upset Potential: Laurent Cantet (France) for The Class- If you fear that the animated movie that's also a pseudo-documentary about violence in the Middle East might be a little too esoteric for the voters, then you might want to consider The Class as an alternative pick. The French film is full of things the Academy traditionally loves, such as social commentary, powerful acting, and actual human people in live action. The Academy can be a conservative group at times, so it might be prudent to select the more traditional option in your prediction pool.

BEST ART DIRECTION
Current Favorite: Donald Graham Burt and Victor J. Zolfo for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button- Movies like Benjamin Button tend to have a heavy advantage in the "technical awards", because they cover such a wide scope of material. Films like this give the filmmakers a chance to show off how well they can create a variety of time periods and settings on the screen. The story of Button spans several decades, multiple nations, and visits such visually captivating cities as New Orleans and Paris. The voters eat up that sort of stuff with a spork.

Tremendous Upset Potential: Nathan Crowley and Peter Lando for The Dark Knight- Sometimes AMPAS likes to reward films that create their own world like Sleepy Hollow, Moulin Rouge, or Pan's Labyrinth. Even if the members aren't in love with super-hero movies in the major award the do like their visual splendor enough to give them the occasional craft award. Almost everyone has praised Dark Knight for the originality and grandeur of its vision. A lot of that grandeur comes from the successful forging of Gotham City into a believable and realistic metropolis (no not the Metropolis where Superman lives). Also Mr. Crowley has previously been nominated while folks from the Button team are Oscar newbies, sometimes having a pre-existing group of supporters can help tilt the voters away from a frontrunner.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Current Favorite: Anthony Dod Mantle for Slumdog Millionaire- The prize for the best director of photography usually goes to the DoP who draws the most attention to his work. In Slumdog you can't ignore the bright visuals or daring shot selection that gives that film its visual edge. Also this trophy often comes along with the winner of Best Picture or Best Director. Since, Slumdog is the favorite to win each of those major awards, you have to expect that the members respect the film enough to reward the person responsible for its distinctive look.

Tremendous Upset Potential: Wally Pfister for The Dark Knight- When it comes to creating eye-catching shots few this year could come close to the people who made Dark Knight. The film has numerous visual moments and sequences that had people buzzing ever since this summer. The Academy may see fit to acknowledge the person who made to fantastic images a reality. There is certainly a lot of love for The Dark Knight considering its numerous nominations, and this is one of the categories where the members might feel compelled to give it at least one trophy as a token of appreciation. Another advantage Pfister has over most of the other nominees is past nominations. The hive mind of AMPAS may decide that this is his year and leap frog him over first timer Mantle.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Current Favorite: Michael O'Connor for The Duchess- You can't do much more to appease the voters in this category than to put on a lavish period film and let your costumers dress up a star as widely ogled as Keira Knightley. As far as most members are concerned this award exists to reward people for putting beautiful actresses in elaborate outfits.

Tremendous Upset Potential: Jacqueline West for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button- Working on a movie like Benjamin Button allows the costumer to create a wide variety of different looks. The actors have to be dressed to reflect changing fashions over the extensive course of the story. You can reflect styles befitting everything from scrappy sailors, to elegant ballerinas, to freaked out beatniks. The voters may feel so overwhelmed by the sheer quantity of costumes that went into making Button that they'll feel forced to hand its fashion crew the trophy.

BEST MAKEUP
Current Favorite: Greg Cannom for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button- AMPAS has to reward the makeup department for this film. The whole reason Benjamin Button was made was to try and pull off the audacious makeup feat of aging a person in reverse. On top of that Cannom also had to do makeup on the characters befitting changing fashions. On top of that he managed to transform Cate Blanchett into an old woman so convincingly, the star was practically unrecognizable under all that goop. Most importantly of all though Cannom is one of the most respected makeup men in the business and after multiple previous nominations and past wins in this category he has a lot of long standing support among the voters.

Tremendous Upset Potential: John Caglione, Jr. and Conor O'Sullivan for The Dark Knight- While the makeup done creating the character of Benjamin Button may have been the grandest makeup work this year, the re-imagining of classic characters like the Joker and Two-Face, principally though makeup, may have been the most iconic. Both of the makeup men for Dark Knight have their own history with the Academy, so that could give them a foothold against the tide for Cannom. Also, given the luke warm response Button has received from many, I could easily imagine the voters turning against it, especially in the category where it should have been the most impressive.

BEST FILM EDITING
Current Favorite: Chris Dickens for Slumdog Millionaire- I know it will sound really weird to say this, and only absolute cinema nuts like me will have an opinion on the topic, but I thought this was a really great year in film editing. I don't know how to properly convey my sincerity about that through a blog, other than to say that I would be happy if any of these films won. All of them did a wonderful job of pacing the film, blending diverging elements, and keeping the shots coming at you in a engaging but organized manner. Dickens has to be considered the favorite since he's riding on the Slumdog coattails. Sometimes predicting the craft categories only requires you to find the film that has drawn lots of AMPAS love and bet on a sweep.

Tremendous Upset Potential: Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button- A corollary to betting on a sweep kicks in when you watch for an upset. When one film seems destined to win a ton of awards like Slumdog has been, but another film has gobbled up more nominations like Benjamin Button did you can usually expect the top-nom getter to break the grip of the awards darling in at least a few places. Given the way Button's editing kept an epic story moving along briskly -while containing several weird elements, like the backwards moving sequence, and the alternate time lines in Paris- I say it has the best chance of taking home the trophy of any of the other nominees in this category.

BEST SCORE
Current Favorite: A.R. Rahman for Slumdog Millionaire- If you want an easy way to tell which score will attract the voters, find the score that has the most unique sound. The Academy can't always distinguish between two scores that have well-done but traditional music. If a score has some kind of exotic musical flavors mixed in or uses an unusual set of instruments, then you know that will catch the ears of the members. They'll adore the combination of traditional Indian music and modern dance/hip-hop styles Rahman uses in the score. That's the sort of thing the Academy can label as bold or innovative and the feel proud of themselves for giving it an award.

Tremendous Upset Potential: Thomas Newman for WALL-E- Only one film has had as much success giving members of the Academy the warm and fuzzies as Slumdog, WALL-E. Newman may get the hat tip here for having to carry a lot of the emotional wait of the film that has very little proper dialogue in it. Also, Newman has had numerous nominations in the past, yet still hasn't taken home a trophy. If the voters feel Slumdog will receive enough love from other quarters, watch out for them to reward Newman because he's due.

BEST SONG
Current Favorite: "Jai Ho" by A.R. Rahman and Gulzar from Slumdog Millionaire- With two of the three nominees for Best Original Song this year, the songwriters from Slumdog seem to have the odds heavily in their favor to win. The fimmakers have decided to put all their backing behind just one song likely giving it a the support of fans of both songs. Indeed it seems as though most pundits expect the final musical number from Slumdog to win. (What you didn't know it closed on a big musical number? Don't you know anything about India cinema.)

Tremendous Upset Potential: "Down to Earth"byPeter Gabriel and Thomas Newman from WALL-E- In this category I really feel very strongly that the common wisdom has it wrong. The Academy may be the elites of Hollywood, but that doesn't mean their immune from brown-nosing celebrities from outside of the industry. This sycophantic side of AMPAS usually arises in the voters giving the songwriting award to the biggest music star that snags nomination. For Pete's sake Eminem has an Oscar because of this. Also the Academy has shown a strong tendency to associate the Best Original Song prize with animated films. Disney has a whole bunch of them for just this reason. If you think Slumdog is in for anything less than a total sweep of all the categories in which it has nominees, than you should definitely pick this as the one category where it will lose. The members all probably love Peter Gabriel and own lots of his albums. Because my guiding principle is that the members give trophies to the people they wish they could hang out with, I seriously believe Gabriel has good odds to win this award.

BEST SOUND EDITING
Current Favorite: Richard King for The Dark Knight- In recent years the sound awards have basically become consolation prizes for the summer blockbuster movies that are technically accomplished. Clearly Dark Knight best matches that criteria among these nominees. It was a film with a lot of big visuals and a big time audio experience to match.

Tremendous Upset Potential: Ben Burtt and Matthew Wood for WALL-E- The sound wizards behind WALL-E also worked on box office success, and they had to make a lot of characterization happen through only the sound effects. This actually might be a close call.

BEST SOUND MIXING
Current Favorite: Lora Hirschberg, Gary Rizzo and Ed Novick for The Dark Knight- Y'know what I don't know why these are seperate categories. Just copy everything I said above down here.

Tremendous Upset Potential: Tom Myers, Michael Semanick and Ben Burtt for WALL-E- And dittos again (jeez, I sound like a Limbaugh listener).

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Current Favorite: Eric Barba, Steve Preeg, Burt Dalton and Craig Barron for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button- With a film like Button, where the film primarily exists to accomplish a certain task the voters can have a hard time separating which elements of the film to credit for the central gimmick. In the case of Button, the praise ranged from the director, to the makeup, to Brad Pitt as an actor, and to the visual effects team. For as much as the makeup carried the scenes where Benjamin was played by Pitt, the visual effects carried the earlier scenes where child actors where made to look decrepit and Pitt's face was superimposed onto Benjamin's shriveled body. Just as the Academy would have to give Button an award for makeup if nothing else, they may feel compelled to reward the FX if only because they have almost as large a role in the picture. To whatever degree the film overall worked you have to acknowledge that the visual effects played a crucial role.

Tremendous Upset Potential: Nick Davis, Chris Corbould, Tim Webber and Paul Franklin for The Dark Knight- The visual effects category has traditionally served as only Oscar big action movies could hope to win. With two superhero movie vying to upend Button, bet on the voters leaning toward the film with the more sweeping vision and bigger box office. When the Academy deems fit to honor films made primarily for commercial reasons, they want the trophy to go for a film that did really well commercially. Also the wide-spread support Dark Knight has received for its visual wonders may find an outlet in this category where the voters won't feel as obliged to honor the more artistic craftsmen of other films.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Current Favorite: James Marsh and Simon Chinn for Man on Wire- One of the sad secrets of AMPAS always comes to the surface when they hand out the documentary awards. Truthfully, Academy members watch documentaries about as often as the average movie goer, which is to say hardly ever. You can usually pick the leader in the feature length documentary feature by think of the only documentary you've heard of this year. Man on Wire has had all the buzz. Critics gobbled it up. The filmmakers even got their subject, a famous high wire artist, out on the TV chat show circuit. Count on most of the voters just checking the box next to the one title they know

Tremendous Upset Potential: Werner Herzog and Henry Kaiser for Encounters at the End of the World- The only other documentary to receive much mainstream attention stand the best chance of pulling the upset. The film has gets neat concept and a lot of stunning visuals out of taking cameras to the Antarctic and recorded the diversity of life human and otherwise that survives in the extreme condition way down south. Also Herzog has long stood as one of the most respected and daring filmmakers around the world for decades, yet this is his first Oscar nomination. The voters may take this chance to recruit him into their elite circle, so they can brag about how they always honor the great filmmakers in some way.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Current Favorite: Adam Pertofsky and Margaret Hyde for The Witness- From the Balcony of Room 306- Now we've delved into the territory where even the Cap'n and the pundits don't have a clear opinion on the categories. Since almost no one who doesn't get the Academy's special screening DVD's ever sees the nominated short films, we have only a vague sense of what might strike a chord with the voters. Members of the Academy like rewarding documentaries that address very serious social issues. With a focus on the assassination of Martin Luther King Jr., this film may strike what few members actually cast a vote in this category as the kind of meaningful film approriate for the Year of Obama.

Tremendous Upset Potential: Steven Okazaki for The Conscience of Nhem En- While the history of racial politics in the United States certainly carries a lot of wait with the voters, they also tend to find themselves drawn to films about genocide (see also all of the nominations for The Reader). The story of a servant of the Khmer Rouge in Cambodia sounds like the kind of tale that could really grab the members attention. Also the filmmaker has a history of earning Oscar nominations and wins, so he may have an advantage in playing to the Academy's preferences.

BEST SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
Current Favorite: Doug Sweetland for Presto- Pixar has traditionally placed an animated short before each of their big time animated features. Since the features usually turn into big hits, that typically means most people only ever see their animated shorts -let alone admire another enough to grant it a prestigious award. So the Pixar short this year, Presto, automatically finds itself the heavy favorite.

Tremendous Upset Potential: Emud Mokhberi and Thierry Marchand for Oktapodi- The other animated shorts all seem to have some notable merit that would suggest an ability to sneak into a win. However Oktapodi stands alone as short for which I have heard a little positive buzz. While that may not give it enough ammunition to take on the Pixar powerhouse, it may give it the opening it needs to rise as the rebelious choice, if any anti-Pixar backlash forms among the voters.

BEST SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)
Current Favorite: Jochen Alexander Freydank for Spielzeugland (Toyland)- The short films from foreign countries usually seem to have a high success rate. I think that's mostly because they still treat short films seriously in other countries. Plus Toyland deals with the Holocaust. When in doubt count on the Academy to pick the film with most serious topic.

Tremendous Upset Potential: Steph Green and Tamara Anghie for The New Boy- If the voters want a film with a serious topic but feel a little worn out with the Holocaust as a topic, they may select New Boy. It deals with racial tensions in the microcosm of a classroom. With racial politics playing such a huge role in the U.S. over the last year-plus, the members may find this film especially timely and poignant.

Well that should cover all the categories (Wait, did I talk about art direction? Better go back and check . . .), again if you take all of the favorites in the categories for your prediction you should have a pretty good night. Best of luck to everyone in their Oscar pools. Let's all hope for an entertaining ceremony on Sunday. I always look forward to Oscar night so much that its almost like a holiday for me. Since I've written about 14 typed pages of material about it this year alone, you can tell I have some kind of strong feelings about it. I hope you enjoy it as much as I do.