The NCAA Men's Basketball tournament is always the biggest amateur gambling event of the year. For all of the dollars legitimately bet by people on the Super Bowl, I am sure the thousands of March Madness pools around the country put even more money on the line. Since there are something like 9,223 trillion possible outcomes and only one right answer each year, no one can truly hope to get them all right. We're all just trying to do a little better than the guy in the next cubicle. This drive for relative superiority leads people to cling desperately to any potential insight to help make their prognostications seemly a little more plausible. To give my audience some method of filling out their brackets, I will take yet another crack at predicting the outcome of 63 games spread over eighteen days.
(LEGALISH LOOKING DISCLAIMER THING-Y: Keep in mind my predictions are meant for entertainment purposes only. I only provide projections to demonstrate that all methods of predicting sporting events are equally arbitrary and that the only smart way to gamble is to have fun coming up with your bets, kiss all the money you wager goodbye, and treat anything you get right as the dumb luck it is. I suggest no one put serious money on these predictions. I certainly won't.)
Most fill out their brackets in a few minutes simply guessing on limited information. Those who treat it more seriously will consider each game as a basketball contest with certain quantifiable factors you can study and rely on deciding the outcome. I propose you treat your bracket as a 21 question standardized test. We have generations of Americans who got very good at taking standardized tests because they knew their chances of getting into a good college/law school/medical school/career/secret society/swingers club would depend on their ability to look at four possible answers they knew nothing about and spot the inherent nugget of truth in one of them. Some people I know are phenomenal test takers simply for their ability to sniff out the b.s. hidden behind the three incorrect options. I am stunned that no one else has tried applying this skill to the tournament. So let's see who well it goes as I attempt to complete the first ever Standardized Bracket Aptitude Test (SBAT).
Section 1- Saint Louis Region
1. Which of the following four teams will advance to the Sweet Sixteen?
a. Florida
b. Jackson State
c. Arizona
d. Purdue
Answer: The national media has never stopped promoting the "Can Florida repeat?" story since Joakim Noah and his compatriots decided to return. I have always taken umbrage with the specious reasoning that any defendin champion is the presumptive favorite to win the next championship. Every year so much of the tournament is decided by luck and the unique match-ups you get that differ from bracket to bracket. Last year people were a little stunned we wound up with the Final Four we had including Florida. Now simply because they managed to get past an overmatched George Mason and a undertalented UCLA team, I'm supposed to believe they are the best team in the country by far. Please. Still they are the only team with a decent record in this pool of four, so I have to move them to the second weekend. I'll say Arizona gets to the second round since they have a decent road record.
Florida over Arizona
2. Which of the following four teams will advance to the Sweet Sixteen?
a. Butler
b. Old Dominion
c. Maryland
d. Davidson
Answer: Butler is a very tough mid-major team that could definitely advance given the right circumstances. I've heard reports that they were very impressive when playing against their conference. Still I like Maryland more, since they have really pulled together at the end of the season to go on an impressive run. When you put together the hot streak they did in the Atlantic Coast Conference (a.k.a. the premier college basketball conference), you have to get more consideration than a team that couldn't even win the Horizon League.
Maryland over Butler
3. Which of the following four teams will advance to the Sweet Sixteen?
a. Notre Dame
b. Winthrop
c. Oregon
d. Miami University
Answer: Notre Dame can play well and has the firepower to do well, but they have been awful outside of South Bend. Give me Winthrop with an impressive 13-4 record in road/neutral games to pull that upset. The Miami Red Hawks (who deserve better than to be constantly confused with "Da U") don't have much of a prayer against Oregon, who have finally started playing defense to support their offense. They may finally be playing the kind of complete basketball needed to go far in the NCAA tournament.
Oregon over Winthrop
Section 2- San Jose Region
4. Which of the following four teams will advance to the Sweet Sixteen?
a. UNLV
b. Georgia Tech
c. Wisconsin
d. Texas A&M- Corpus Christie
Answer: Georgia Tech hasn't been consistent at any point this season, and they have way too many headcases on their roster. Wisconsin lost one of their key players at the end of the regular season, and they have way too many white guys on their roster. T A&M-C.C. has only been playing top level college basketball for a few years, and they have way too many letters in their name. The University of Nevada Las Vegas is the only team I'd be willing to bet on to win to games. (Though I actually can't bet on them because a Nevada state laws prohibit the state casinos -the only place you can legally wager on sports already- aren't allowed to take action on games involving UNLV. Go figure.)
UNLV over Wisconsin
5. Which of the following four teams will advance to the Sweet Sixteen?
a. Kansas
b.
c. Kentucky
d. Villanova
Answer: You have to feel bad for the play-in teams. The selection committee basically tells them their record is not only so mediocre that they earn an instant crushing by a No. 1 seed, but that they may not even be worth a seat in the tournament at all. So you know Niagra is out. Neither Kentucky, under Tubby "Mr. Hot Seat" Smith, nor Villanova, from the doughy middle of the Big East seems likely to topple a one seed. I'll go chalk once more.
Kansas over Villanova
6. Which of the following four teams will advance to the Sweet Sixteen?
a. Virginia Tech
b. Illinois
c. Southern Illinois
d. Holy Cross
Answer: Watch out for Illinois. They have comparable tournament credentials to Virginia Tech, plus they are playing in Columbus, Ohio, which is a familiar road trip for them since it is also home of conference rival Ohio State. I like Illinois to upset, but the best team in this particular foursome is actually Southern Illinois. They've beaten more high quality teams than any of the other options, and they're bound to have a chip on their shoulder if they play the Illini as the bitter little siblings of the in-state power.
Southern Illinois over Illinois
7. Which of the following four teams will advance to the Sweet Sixteen?
a. Duke
b. Virgina Commonwealth
c. Pittsburgh
d. Wright State
Answer: I'm one of those rare people who actually supports Duke. I have friends who went there and their back-to-back championships are one of my first significant sports memories. So I have been displeased by both Duke's recent on-the-court difficulties and the celebratory attitude many have taken to the apparent demise of Coach K's once untouchable program. Yet, I cannot let that get in the way of the fact that VCU is much better prepared to win tournament games. I also want to root for Wright State since they are from my home town of Dayton, but I know Pitt is the better basketball team. I guess I'll say that any team that can defeat Duke has to be good enough to make the Sweet Sixteen.
Virginia Commonwealth over Pittsburgh
8. Which of the following four teams will advance to the Sweet Sixteen?
a. Indiana
b. Gonzaga
c. UCLA
d. Weber State
Answer: Gonzaga has built up enough of an aura of dominance within their own conference, and an expectation of greatness across the country that you may spot them for an upset. Especially if you've seen how well they played to get win the WCC tournament, and if you saw how bad UCLA looked in the Pac-10 tourney. Yet I am still much more impressed by the Bruin's 10-1 record against the RPI Top 50 than anything else I've seen from any of the other teams in the big dance.
UCLA over Gonzaga
Section 3- East Rutherford Region
9. Which of the following four teams will advance to the Sweet Sixteen?
a. North Carolina
b. Eastern Kentucky
c. Marquette
d. Michigan State
Answer: March Madness provides a terrific platform to showcase those special players who have the skill, energy, and intelligence to make a huge impact on the college game, but who have no hope of making it in the NBA. These players are often too small, too old, too one-dimensional, or lack that bizarre trait known as "upside" to truly hope to make it in the pros. Yet they can tear apart at least one higher seed before a powerhouse team forces them into early basketball retirement. In my eyes MSU's Drew Neitzel looks like just that kind of player, and UNC looks like just that kind of powerhouse.
North Carolina over Michigan State
10. Which of the following four teams will advance to the Sweet Sixteen?
a. Southern California
b. Arkansas
c. Texas
d. New Mexico State
Answer: We all know that when Kevin Durant hits his shots and plays up to his natural potential Texas is too good to bet against, so I'll advance them. Still I can't imagine Durant putting together two straight great games in pressure filled games against competitive teams. So deciding the team that will advance comes down to Southern Cal versus Arkansas. I have serious doubts in USC's tournament credentials, so I'm calling for the Razorbacks to make it to the Sweet Sixteen. Yes I have called for Notre Dame and USC to lose in upsets. Brendon Loy can bite me.
Arkansas over Texas
11. Which of the following four teams will advance to the Sweet Sixteen?
a. Vanderbilt
b. George Washington
c. Washington State
d. Oral Roberts
Answer: Washington State has been playing well above their talent, which means everyone will call for their downfall and ignore their actual accomplishments. I believe their record means something and will push them through. Vanderbilt however has had a few wins over better teams which will make everyone put too much faith in their ability to "win when it counts". So, I have to point to their weak record on the road and call for the upset.
Washington State over George Washington
12. Which of the following four teams will advance to the Sweet Sixteen?
a. Boston College
b. Texas Tech
c. Georgetown
d. Belmont
Answer: Boston College and Texas Tech both look too weak to pose any serious threat. I'll just go with the chalk because Georgetown has been playing well lately.
Georgetown over Boston College
Section 4- San Antonio Region
13. Which of the following four teams will advance to the Sweet Sixteen?
a. Ohio State
b. Central Connecticut State
c. Brigham Young
d. Xavier
Answer: I have to take the top seed. Ohio State has just been too good for too long to call for their much predicted exposure as a sham quite yet. Though I totally can see Xavier making it a close game in the second round. They match up well and are deceptively tough.
Ohio State over Xavier
14. Which of the following four teams will advance to the Sweet Sixteen?
a. Tennessee
b. Long Beach State
c. Virginia
d. Albany
Answer: I find Tennessee and its terrible road record are priming for an upset. The problem with that is that none of the other three teams seem likely to pull it off. Virginia has been even worse in away games than UT. Albany hasn't played in any really big games. Long Beach State can't beat a RPI Top 50 team. I guess I'll go with the unknown over the proven loser because at least they've won road games.
Albany over Long Beach State
15. Which of the following four teams will advance to the Sweet Sixteen?
a. Louisville
b. Stanford
c. Texas A&M
d. Pennsylvania
Answer: I am so sick of seeing people pick Texas A&M to make the Final Four. Mostly I suspect they are doing this because no one knows who to pick other than the top seeds. So a lot of people are taking Texas A&M to win the San Antonio Region just so they don't have all four No. 1's advance (because they all know that never happens). I guess they're justifying it by figuring Ohio State looks soft and A&M gets to play the Sweet Sixteen games in Texas. Well, I've got a big bucket of water to toss on their hope, because I say the Aggies don't even get past Louisville who gets to play the first two games in the commonwealth of Kentucky. See, two can play at that game you uninspired little punks.
Louisville over Texas A&M
16. Which of the following four teams will advance to the Sweet Sixteen?
a. Nevada
b. Creighton
c. Memphis
d. North Texas
Answer: Memphis may be the biggest unknown in this whole tournament. While they show all the usual indicators of being a strong team they haven't really proven anything. The Tigers have only played against three Top 50 teams and lost to two of them. I feel much more comfortable backing a team with winning winning records against quality teams and playing on the road. Say doesn't Creighton have a winning record against the Top 50 and away from home? Hmmmm.
Creighton over Memphis
Section 5- Sweet Sixteen
17. Of your answers to questions 1, 2, 3, and 4 which of those teams will advance to the Final Four?
a. Florida
b. Maryland
c. Oregon
d. UNLV
Answer: Given the shakiness Florida has shown lately, I fear that Maryland is just the kind of team that can get hot and make lots of buckets quickly at the exact moment the Gators let their guard down. Oregon on the other hand has been playing very well and demonstrated a solid process for winning games. In a fairly surprising move, I'll trust the Ducks to make it to Atlanta.
Oregon over Maryland
18. Of your answers to questions 5, 6, 7, and 8 which of those teams will advance to the Final Four?
a. Kansas
b. Southern Illinois
c. Virginia Commonwealth
d. UCLA
Answer: The answer here is fairly obvious. UCLA has played at a high level all season long. They have some of the best indicators of any team in the tournament. They'll have chip on their shoulder for being put at a two seed just for stumbling in their conference tourney. Take them to topple the weakest No. 1 seed in this field.
UCLA over Kansas
19. Of your answers to questions 9, 10, 11, and 12 which of those teams will advance to the Final Four?
a. North Carolina
b. Arkansas
c. Washington State
d. Georgetown
Answer: North Carolina has the talent advantage, but the players have had consistency and focus problems and the coach hasn't been able to pick one line-up to close out a game. They are too vulnerable to a gritty, physical team like Georgetown. Look for Georgetown's combination of talent and toughness to carry them through.
Georgetown over North Carolina
20. Of your answers to questions 13, 14, 15, and 16 which of those teams will advance to the Final Four?
a. Ohio State
b. Albany
c. Louisville
d. Creighton
Answer: You may wonder how I managed to predict Ohio State only needing to defeat three straight upset teams to make the Final Four. Don't blame me. All the experts agree that the San Antonio Regional was the softest and the one most likely to fall for the top seed. Wins over teams like Albany and Creighton still count for something, even if its not much.
Ohio State over Creighton
Section 6- Final Four
21. Of your answers to questions 17, 18, 19, and 20 which of those teams will win the National Championship?
a. Oregon
b. UCLA
c. Georgetown
d. Ohio State
Answer: Having placed two Pac-10 teams in the Final Four, I now have to put at least one of them in the title game. I guess I will take Oregon for their ability to get points whenever they need them, a trait that will let them stay close to UCLA and pass them in the closing moments. Georgetown can match-up well with Ohio State at all positions, plus they have more experience. For the second straight year it looks like the Hoyas will punch the Buckeyes ticket for their unceremonious return to Columbus. That leaves Oregon -who will have to play at their absolute peak to make both baskets and stops after five tough games- against Georgetown -who can bring more physical strength, athleticism, and intensity into the game. The result seems pretty self-apparent to me.
Georgetown over Oregon
Wait, did I just predict a team that barely won the Big East would win the national championship over a team that has only started playing defense since President's Day? Well, that's the fun of March Madness it's all arbitrary so you might as well come up with an interesting method. I'm off to burn my bracket and prepare for next year. In the mean time amuse yourself with your special-edition Rounders DVD and scratch-off lottery tickets.
